My notes say Caspet is pretty tight preflop and straightforward post flop. With that in mind, would it be too crazy to 3bet shove this river as played? I really put him on AK or KQ to be honest… and I think a full house would have shoved, not min raise… I don’t know that he has any bluffs here either.
Man, the more I talk it out, it seems like theoretically blah blah but as an exploit, this feels like a slam dunk all-in on the river! Am I crazy?
There’s two combos of A5s, so if there’s one combo of aces you were going to just call, this would be it, but really I agree this is just a jam.
Sometimes with a full house a good player will raise smaller just to try and get you to call more. Plus the “min raise” was half the pot before your bet on the river so its not like it was miniscule. I probably would have just called myself, I lose with pocket aces far too often.
plus the 5 sets of pocket pairs that matched the board
There’s 7 combos potentially, but not all of them make it to the flop this way, and basically none make it to the river without raising.
This is a spot where I just don’t care if they’re trapping with a full house, because I’d be calling if they’d gone all in anyway. I’d rather get the extra money in for the vast majority of times they have AK here.
You’d be surprised how people play. Everyone doesn’t play like you or I or anyone else for that matter. But op clearly hesitated for a reason, the guy must be a solid player.
I needed to think faster. I kinda defaulted to “he has no bluffs so this is value, and the board is kinda wet” so I just called. But the fact that he didn’t raise until the river really caps his range IMO.
I think calling is your best option here. Can’t see him calling a 3-bet on the river with a worse hand, and his better hands (boats, quads) mostly call. If you bet on the river, I’d think you were doing it as a bluff to get straights to fold, not for value.
Can I also ask what the purpose of your flop bet was? This flop is better for V’s range than yours, so I don’t love continuing with your full range. If you’re going to c-bet with the top of your range, choose a larger size.
I think his range is extremely narrow in this config. I don’t really give him many sets tbh, given preflop action. I have him on a lot of 99+ and AK; on the flop I just want to start building the pot and I do not want AK to fold.
There’s not enough behind for AK to fold, especially because they’d be expecting to chop almost always.
This would be a terrible flop in a single raise pot, but not so much in a 3-bet pot. You can just check fold on a JT9 flop here, but the lower straight boards are fine for your range in theory, and even better against population.