I think the answer is probably “it sucks, but nah, u gotta call.”
Intuitively, I feel like Dynamo has 6x like, 105% of the time.
We could certainly make a case for an exploit fold here. The speed of the all-in when the 6 hits is a tell IMO; it felt like he was excited and just waiting as long as he could bear before clicking the button, to avoid “giving it away.”
But there are just so many other hands that still exist. Th8h might want to play this way. Any 2 overs in hearts might play this way. A9 might play this way. TT might even play this way, given how allergic many players are to making preflop 3bets without a true premium.
Add to that the fact that 2/3 of our stack is already in the pot, and I think we just have to go with it. It does suck that we hold the Kh, removing a lot of the 2-hearts-overcards type hands from Villain’s range. But how many better hands do we even show up with here? Aces, sets, and that’s about it. I am not sure we have enough superior value combos to only call with sets, relative to how many semi-bluffs and worse made hands Villain can have.
Interested if anyone has a different perspective — if you would consider exploit folding here (I’m fairly certain GTO/solver has no qualms about calling), what is your reasoning?
What hands are you giving Villain given the action on previous streets?
I think it’s a fold. Not saying I’d have the discipline to make it, but this is always a 6.
I don’t think A9 or TT ever lead out tiny on the flop. It also doesn’t make sense for them to not 3-bet jam the flop, but then suddenly donk jam on the turned 6 with those hands. I could see them bluffing the turn with 75, pocket 5’s maybe, trying to rep a 6, except that would be suicidal with the player in between basically all in already. It basically can only be a 6.
I agree. The other stuff I said is just the poker equivalent of hoping your chess opponent doesn’t notice your queen is hanging. It’s wishful optimism. I should have just rolled my eyes and folded, trusted my intuition about how villain would play his range: this is just a 6.
And in fact if there was any doubt, holding the Kh should really nail the coffin on continuing.
The KK should have been pushed all in before the flop.
Those hands would have folded.
It is why good players PUSH AA/KK/QQ
Odds and the fact anyone who calls would have played those hands all the way to the river anyway.
This is why pre flop all in with these cards should be the default call. Situations may dictate you do not push them, but then you must good enough to fold them after the flop if you see they are probably beaten.
This is just one of the various “poker math” problems that you cannot calculate on a calculator
Only experience teaches these calculation enough to learn these lessons by beating the snot out of you for years.
IFYKYK
We push KK sometimes. We don’t always shove our strongest hands pre; doing that would force us to shove too many hands we don’t want to shove. Otherwise, we’d be very easy to play against—just fold whenever we shove pre unless you have AA.
Raising a size smaller than all-in with a hand as strong as KK allows us to do the same with other hands like 78s (at a lower frequency) or AQo (at a higher frequency) without being too predictable.
You absolutely can calculate this, and it’s a disaster to shove KK here if it gets 65s and T7s to fold. If you shove and they fold, you win 2.5bb. If you can get them to put their entire stacks in, you have a 60% chance to win 54bb, or 32.5bb pre-flop. After the flop, 40% to win or 21.5bb. Even on the 6 turn, KK still has 4.8% equity, which is 2.6bb, which you may have noticed is more than the 2.5bb you hope to win by shoving pre.
Folding is not a shame. Like you said, low pair or high premiums, it is hard to fold. But I have seen lot of players too stubborn to admit their defeat. I had pocket 4. As I was just calling, this guy 3 bets me and everyone else folded. What is the harm in see the flop so I called. Flop comes 3 4 6 rainbow. I bet and he calls. Turn, another 4. I have quad now. I was thinking that he has some draws and kept following me. I am sure he did not realize what I had, but in river I go all in, he should had realized something is going on. He ended up mucking the card and saying that he has nothing. If folding is hard, at least you can minimize the loss. There is no shame in folding.
Welp, all I have to say if you cannot understand why KK/AA/KK is shoved right from the beginning,the theory behind it, then I cant help you.
Keep limping in with these hand and ending up bitching you keep getting sucked out on.
But hey, what do I know.
I think you have me confused with someone else. I’m never limping these hands, advocating anyone else does, or complaining when I lose with them.
You’ll have to show me where theory says we should open shove these hands though. Even short stacked where you’re open shoving a lot of hands, these are good candidates to min raise. I don’t recall anyone ever highlighting a situation where theory says that open shoving is clearly the highest EV option.
