Calling down on scary boards

The Hand

What thought process allowed Hero to find the call here with a measly under pair? (ignore the very unfair runout)

4 outs to a boat on a fairly dry board? - dry other than the 77.

Paired flops have a considerably less chance of being hit so the chances that Villain is ahead of you are less than usual. He would need a 7 or a 6 or a pocket pair higher than your 33. He would have a lot of 2 overcards in his range.

Still, not sure that it warrants all of those large calls, especially when that K came up on the turn. Smaller calls absolutely, but 13bb on flop and 60+bb shove on turn, yikes!

The only other motive is that you had him outstacked almost 3 to 1 and were trying to get him to felt himself into you - which almost happened.

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Gwada raised preflop from the bb. You have to put him on a premium hand. If it were AK or QQ/KK/AA, you might expect him to shove as it’s practically a family pot. So, a lesser Broadway hand or TT/JJ. You didn’t believe he had hit the board when the king came, so you called his shove, and were right.

IMO though, calling down was a mistake. You should have come over the top when he led out on the flop. Yes, he might have a higher pair, but the greater part of his range is AQ, AJ, AT, KQ, KJ, KT, QJ, and QT. He made you choose when you passed on giving him the chance to fold.

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Good analysis but I don’t think we need to/should shove flop per se. The snap shove on the turn was valuable information, as I don’t expect most Kx hands to react that way. Without that “tell” I think we run into too many brick walls just kind of blindly saying “prove it” on this flop

In my lexicon, shove is putting yourself or your opponent all in. He bet 520 with 2750 behind. You could have countered with 1300-1600 chips, at which point he should either fold or shove.

I don’t have any notes on Gwada, but I suppose he could call too, as poor a choice as that is.

Out of experience, I do expect Replayers to react as he did to hitting the turn, even though it’s not good value. Maybe at the level you’re playing, they don’t.

Either way, I see calling the flop as now having to decide whether he has a 7,6, or K, rather than just a 7 or 6, and I’d rather not go deep into a pot with a speculative tiny pair if I can help it. I prefer to induce a quick fold with a value bet/raise.

What I mean is that the flop cbet doesn’t tell us much; presumably Villain is just betting their entire range. Shoving over a cbet with an underpair is probably not profitable even on a low-ish paired board (Villain would likely have folded AJ and called with all the pocket pairs that beat us).

Calling flop is best IMO as it allows V to bet into us again with all his bluffs on the turn. If some of his value hands that are ahead of 33 check turn (which I contend is also possible), we can even see some free rivers and realize our sliver of suckout equity.

Your line (shove flop over cbet) has the advantage of denying equity to V’s unpaired broadway holdings, which is surely a big chunk of their range. But they don’t have very good odds to hit on just the turn, and if they don’t hit the turn they will (evidently) feel compelled to bluff at some frequency. So perhaps call-evaluate is still the most profitable response for Hero.

I don’t think most Replay players have over-bet in their arsenal. I might be scared of pot, because that could be someone just clicking a button with AK, but the size here means something. Any single pair hand has to be somewhat concerned you have a seven after you called the flop, and just about every single value hand better than that they can have is a boat and invulnerable. That only really leaves bluffs that would use this size.

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(You’re still saying “prove it” when you call his shove on the turn)

Actually, I forgot they jammed the turn, that will be a terrible player with a really strong hand more often than if they’d overbet not all-in, but is still going to be a bluff often enough that we can profitably call.

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not the same tho because

  1. when we call turn, we have a crucial additional street of information to act on
  2. this line is passive; x/r flop is aggressive. really by just flatting flop we “give villain some rope” so that now they can say “prove it” to us (with their bluffs, as well as with value)

I would argue that the K on the turn just adds to our pile of questions. Yes, he shoves, but you and I differ on whether that is a sure sign of a bluff.

On my side, he’s at or near his speculative limit with 2750 in chips and 2000 in the pot. He’s either going to check or shove in that spot, because a 1000 chip bet isn’t going to move you off the pot with what you have behind, and that’s ultimately what he desired.

Yes, you can argue that’s what makes it a tell, but a good player bets the same when he’s bluffing as when he has it, and again, in my experience, Replayers often bet big when they hit the turn or river, wanting you to call their ‘bluff.’

I understand the ideals of extracting value and realizing longterm profitability, but they are just that. Ideals. In the moment, you still need to win the hand.

it’s not a sure sign of a bluff, but a rational/thinking player is sufficiently disincentivized to take this line that I felt it was worth calling. honestly a lot of this analysis is post hoc; in the moment I just caugh a vibe. the turn action/timing just "smelled funny.’

I understand the ideals of extracting value and realizing longterm profitability, but they are just that. Ideals. In the moment, you still need to win the hand.

hmm, I’m not sure this makes sense. a play is either profitable in aggregate or not. not to say this is what you’re suggesting, but passing on an overall profitable play because we are concerned that we may be wrong “on this particular hand” is basically the definition of the dreaded playing scared.

We’re bifurcating here, but again, I don’t think that shoving on the turn was a clear indicator.

(go back to the original thread)

again, I’m not saying “clear indicator.” maybe more like, “enough cause for suspicion that suddenly a light call actually seems feasible”

don’t get me wrong, I never loved the spot. and to be sure, a big part of my strategy when calling the flop cbet involves banking on the possibility that Villain just gives up and we get to showdown without being forced to put too much more in the middle.

You reacted to a hunch, and that informed your decision. I do that too and I don’t discount that you can’t communicate here your sense of an opponent from the run of play.

As for my remark on ideals, I was saying that sometimes it’s better to take what you can rather than be greedy. If that’s playing scared so be it. You mentioned your instincts. In that vein, fear can often be your friend. On the other hand, she doesn’t countenance being ignored. A woman scorned and all that.

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Yes, I agree - you gotta know when to hold em… know when to fold em… :sweat_smile:

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Damn it! I had him, too!

Straight on the turn for me but a counterfeit queen bailed him out on the river.

Got him a few hands later though. It was the second hand in a row that he had queens, but I thought he was being a bully.

Thanks for the advance scouting. Have to say, he doesn’t play up to his ranking. Nor does Mck1950. Both very loose. The latter even bluffed the turn of an all-in tournament hand with no side pot.

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they are both pretty bad

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