What thought process allowed Hero to find the call here with a measly under pair? (ignore the very unfair runout)
4 outs to a boat on a fairly dry board? - dry other than the 77.
Paired flops have a considerably less chance of being hit so the chances that Villain is ahead of you are less than usual. He would need a 7 or a 6 or a pocket pair higher than your 33. He would have a lot of 2 overcards in his range.
Still, not sure that it warrants all of those large calls, especially when that K came up on the turn. Smaller calls absolutely, but 13bb on flop and 60+bb shove on turn, yikes!
The only other motive is that you had him outstacked almost 3 to 1 and were trying to get him to felt himself into you - which almost happened.
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Gwada raised preflop from the bb. You have to put him on a premium hand. If it were AK or QQ/KK/AA, you might expect him to shove as itâs practically a family pot. So, a lesser Broadway hand or TT/JJ. You didnât believe he had hit the board when the king came, so you called his shove, and were right.
IMO though, calling down was a mistake. You should have come over the top when he led out on the flop. Yes, he might have a higher pair, but the greater part of his range is AQ, AJ, AT, KQ, KJ, KT, QJ, and QT. He made you choose when you passed on giving him the chance to fold.
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Good analysis but I donât think we need to/should shove flop per se. The snap shove on the turn was valuable information, as I donât expect most Kx hands to react that way. Without that âtellâ I think we run into too many brick walls just kind of blindly saying âprove itâ on this flop
In my lexicon, shove is putting yourself or your opponent all in. He bet 520 with 2750 behind. You could have countered with 1300-1600 chips, at which point he should either fold or shove.
I donât have any notes on Gwada, but I suppose he could call too, as poor a choice as that is.
Out of experience, I do expect Replayers to react as he did to hitting the turn, even though itâs not good value. Maybe at the level youâre playing, they donât.
Either way, I see calling the flop as now having to decide whether he has a 7,6, or K, rather than just a 7 or 6, and Iâd rather not go deep into a pot with a speculative tiny pair if I can help it. I prefer to induce a quick fold with a value bet/raise.
What I mean is that the flop cbet doesnât tell us much; presumably Villain is just betting their entire range. Shoving over a cbet with an underpair is probably not profitable even on a low-ish paired board (Villain would likely have folded AJ and called with all the pocket pairs that beat us).
Calling flop is best IMO as it allows V to bet into us again with all his bluffs on the turn. If some of his value hands that are ahead of 33 check turn (which I contend is also possible), we can even see some free rivers and realize our sliver of suckout equity.
Your line (shove flop over cbet) has the advantage of denying equity to Vâs unpaired broadway holdings, which is surely a big chunk of their range. But they donât have very good odds to hit on just the turn, and if they donât hit the turn they will (evidently) feel compelled to bluff at some frequency. So perhaps call-evaluate is still the most profitable response for Hero.
I donât think most Replay players have over-bet in their arsenal. I might be scared of pot, because that could be someone just clicking a button with AK, but the size here means something. Any single pair hand has to be somewhat concerned you have a seven after you called the flop, and just about every single value hand better than that they can have is a boat and invulnerable. That only really leaves bluffs that would use this size.
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(Youâre still saying âprove itâ when you call his shove on the turn)
Actually, I forgot they jammed the turn, that will be a terrible player with a really strong hand more often than if theyâd overbet not all-in, but is still going to be a bluff often enough that we can profitably call.
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not the same tho because
- when we call turn, we have a crucial additional street of information to act on
- this line is passive; x/r flop is aggressive. really by just flatting flop we âgive villain some ropeâ so that now they can say âprove itâ to us (with their bluffs, as well as with value)
I would argue that the K on the turn just adds to our pile of questions. Yes, he shoves, but you and I differ on whether that is a sure sign of a bluff.
On my side, heâs at or near his speculative limit with 2750 in chips and 2000 in the pot. Heâs either going to check or shove in that spot, because a 1000 chip bet isnât going to move you off the pot with what you have behind, and thatâs ultimately what he desired.
Yes, you can argue thatâs what makes it a tell, but a good player bets the same when heâs bluffing as when he has it, and again, in my experience, Replayers often bet big when they hit the turn or river, wanting you to call their âbluff.â
I understand the ideals of extracting value and realizing longterm profitability, but they are just that. Ideals. In the moment, you still need to win the hand.
itâs not a sure sign of a bluff, but a rational/thinking player is sufficiently disincentivized to take this line that I felt it was worth calling. honestly a lot of this analysis is post hoc; in the moment I just caugh a vibe. the turn action/timing just "smelled funny.â
I understand the ideals of extracting value and realizing longterm profitability, but they are just that. Ideals. In the moment, you still need to win the hand.
hmm, Iâm not sure this makes sense. a play is either profitable in aggregate or not. not to say this is what youâre suggesting, but passing on an overall profitable play because we are concerned that we may be wrong âon this particular handâ is basically the definition of the dreaded playing scared.
Weâre bifurcating here, but again, I donât think that shoving on the turn was a clear indicator.
(go back to the original thread)
again, Iâm not saying âclear indicator.â maybe more like, âenough cause for suspicion that suddenly a light call actually seems feasibleâ
donât get me wrong, I never loved the spot. and to be sure, a big part of my strategy when calling the flop cbet involves banking on the possibility that Villain just gives up and we get to showdown without being forced to put too much more in the middle.
You reacted to a hunch, and that informed your decision. I do that too and I donât discount that you canât communicate here your sense of an opponent from the run of play.
As for my remark on ideals, I was saying that sometimes itâs better to take what you can rather than be greedy. If thatâs playing scared so be it. You mentioned your instincts. In that vein, fear can often be your friend. On the other hand, she doesnât countenance being ignored. A woman scorned and all that.
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Yes, I agree - you gotta know when to hold em⌠know when to fold em⌠
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Straight on the turn for me but a counterfeit queen bailed him out on the river.
Got him a few hands later though. It was the second hand in a row that he had queens, but I thought he was being a bully.
Thanks for the advance scouting. Have to say, he doesnât play up to his ranking. Nor does Mck1950. Both very loose. The latter even bluffed the turn of an all-in tournament hand with no side pot.
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they are both pretty bad
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