Sadly I missed saving the hand replay; @Asuronetorius if you have it feel free to amend 
Early stages of the 250k High Roller Invitational tournament, effective stacks about 100bb.
I don’t remember the exact positions but Villain opens from early or MP, Hero sneaky flats with KK.
Flop: T 9 3 rainbow.
Villain cbets 1/3 pot, Hero raises 4x, Villain calls.
Turn: 9x.
Villain goes ALL-In. Hero folds.
Your thoughts, please!
@lihiue @Yorunoame @Sue13 @jujube
Younguru I talked to Rain about it, and he has said that depending on thing he has folded KK and can see why I folded it.
If a normal low ranked fish donk player, I not folding because they either have TT to AA or all kinds of bluffs, air, junk, and not likely have a 9.
But since it was you Guru, I knew your raise could be 96, 97, 98, T9, J9, Q9, K9, A9, 99, AA, which is about half your opening raising range. Also you could easily have called with other pocket pairs that made a set. Your bluff chance was about 17% to 33%.
Now after your raise I flat called with KK. the flop was relatively semi safe for me, so I checked. You bet 600, and I check raised to about 2300, about 23% of my stack. I was semi tight, had a strong good image, so that check raise made me look extremely strong, so your not going to shove 100 bb’s on turn unless you had something extremely strong as well. The turn was XX99, your range SMASHED, HIT THE board hard. Now normally you wouldn’t want to shove force a fold, and would bet smaller for value, but you probably figured I had something like TT, strong enough to call you, and not beat you. Real easy for you to have 96,97,98,T9,J9,Q9,K9,A9,99,AA,a set, something better then KK.
Now your saying that I should have called. But if I had called and if you had 96, 97, 98, T9, J9, Q9, K9, A9, AA, and if I had busted out, to trips 9’s, you would have probably said that I should have folded, and that I was likely beat or 50/50 beat, that sometimes have to fold AA, KK.
Also I had about 12k,13k,14k, was top 3 chip stack in game, and I knew that I had a slight edge, so no point to take 50/50 coinflip on whether ahead or not, and have 50/50 that bust out.
I already had a big stack, and edge. A double up would have just been KILL EVEN MORE.
Sometime when there is 2 BIG STACKS, sometimes its better to fold in that kind of situation for the same reason for ICM folds on the bubble.
Now that said, I don’t go making those kind of folds often. If I had had a shorter stack, I would have called. If you didnt have a semi wider range that likely SMASHED, HIT the Sh!T out of the board, I would have called. If you had been lower ranked I would have called. If you had been a fish, I would have called.
I know that you would say that should just call, and that if you have trips 9’s then oh well, just got unlucky, that sometimes your supposed to bust. But sometimes that’s not so.
And if you did have trips 9’s,set, boat, etc, then by folding, I was able to use my edge, and top 3.
Guru had JJ.
An open raising range that includes 96s is going be about 50% of all hands. That 9x range is less than 8% of all hands, or less than 1/6 of the opening range, and a lot of those hands should fold to the flop raise.
Translation: It was a bad play, but I’m mostly against even worse opponents, so it’s fine
That’s probably true, but “edge” seems to be the tournament equivalent of “solver approved” - ie mostly a justification for very questionable decisions.
First thing I would say is I need to see their cards along with table cards. Mike is right about one thing. I have learned how important it is to know your players. Some are tough, but many are so obvious. I will wait and read other answers.
@Sue13 Asuro is Hero, Guru is villain. I don’t remember the suits but I don’t think they were terribly relevant.
I am kicking myself for not saving the replay! Was multi-tabling and forgot to come back to the hand.
My thoughts. Villian opening from early position means he likely has a playable hand, if there were limpers in front of him it could imply he has a stronger hand. The hero just flat calling also disguises his hand and chases out the blinds so they go heads up. Flop: 10 9 3 rainbow. Villian bets 1/3 pot, feels like an informational bet to see how much the hero likes their hand, and the hero responds with a pot sized raise. This clearly shows strength. However, the villain only calls. This would suggest, the villain likes your answer and has a good hand for the board; T9, QJ, TT, 99, 33, or an over pair to the board, AA or KK I see him raising not calling and I don’t see the villain calling with middle pair. The 9 comes on the turn and the villain goes all in. While the story he is telling is TT, 99, or T9, I would ask myself does it make sense to jam with those hands and inducing a fold. I mean you just raised the flop, I’d be inclined to give you more rope and get all your chips in that way. 99 is a 100% check and TT is a sneaky strong boat also a check. So over pair makes the most sense. If it was a lesser player, they might jam but our villain is not a lesser player. So most likely he has QQ or JJ so you should call.
Sure is alot easier analyzing a hand with alot of time to think about vice 15 or 20 seconds.
My thoughts precisely @southwestmba
I wasn’t even giving Hero KK or AA really, due to the lack of preflop 3bet
I was just trying to get value from Tx and nonbelieving 88 type hands, assuming Villain doesn’t have much 9x as played. This makes the turn a really nice card for JJ or QQ as AK/AQ type hands just lost half their equity, and are now drawing quite thin.
If I have KK here as Hero, I am thinking the same way and fistpump calling! Or at the very least, as I told @Asuronetorius in game: calling and having a trash can handy if needed!
If villain has, had trips, boat, and if villain then shoves that, does Hero with the strength you say Hero showed by reraise pot over Villain’s cbet, call that shove, and would Villain expect that strength to call his trips, boat shove.
If the answer is yes, that Villain would expect QQ, etc, to call, if Villain shoved Tripps, boat, then Villain would not slowplay trips, and boat, and would shove trips, boat.
Yes Hero flat called, disguised strength of hand preflop, but Hero was semi tight, had good image, and so Hero flat calling a very early position raise, can look to be a QQ, etc, that flatted to trap, preflop, when reraised villains cbet flop. Since hero has been semi tight, good image, etc, is hero then likely to reraise to pot Villains very early position cbet with a hand less then QQ? That’s why that Hero could look like that had QQ, etc, and look like that might semi probably call a trips, boat shove with QQ, and thus shove, instead of slowplay.
Because of that there was, is about a at least a 23 to 33% chance that if call, that beat by trips 9, boat there. That combined with how Guru, me were 2 of the top 3 stacks in the entire tournament, if I call there, and if that 23% to 33% hits that trips, boat bust me out, and I bust out, like Guru said, I would need a puke trash can. No reason to risk that. Better to make a ICM bubble like fold, and use edge, and preserve top 3 stack and top 3. Sometimes BIG STACKS should avoid, fold to each other, and go after, bully, etc, the smaller stacks, especially if they have a skill edge, and a giant big stack advantage, combined. like I said what’s the difference between 100 bb stack, and 200 bb stack, between mid tourny and semi later tourny? None, It’s just KILL EVEN MORE, compared to everybody elses 20 bb stacks. Why bust out with a 100+ bb stack to another 100+ bb stack. There is the tournament adage that every chip lost and losing a lot of chips worth a lot more, then the chips won, and is not worth the chips won, especially when giant, huge, big stack, vs another big, huge, giant stack, where both stacks are top 3 stacks and are almost semi guaranteed to cash, top 2,3,4, maybe win, etc, if they dont bust out vs a BIG STACK, if they have a skill edge, if they don’t get unlucky, etc. So it was a ICM bubble like fold.
If it wasnt a top player like Guru, if it was a fish donk, if I had had a shorter stack, if it wasn’t the top biggest stacks going at it, etc, THEN I WOULD HAVE CALLED. ONLY IN THIS EXTREMELY LIMITED, EXACT, SPECIFIC KIND OF SPOT, SITUATION, ETC, AM I FOLDING KK HERE South, Guru, Lihui, etc.
if Villain jams this river do you want to fold as well?
I think your trying way too hard to justify your play in this hand, and it’s leading you to make statements that just don’t make any sense, at least not to me:
That etc is doing a lot of heavy lifting. Villain can expect QQ to call, but probably not KQ, 76, 88 and AT, KT, QJ, 87 would only be maybes. Conversely you can have 33 and T9 - no-one good is shoving trips here at a high frequency.
That, quite frankly, is rubbish. Flatting QQ+ here is worse than the fold on the turn IMHO, but no-one is going to be concerned that QQ+ is a large part of your range regardless.
If that was true, you should literally be folding every hand.
it’s called u leveled urself bro it happens <3
I did the same thing earlier late stages of I think a 500k? I don’t remember… anyway it cost me big and may have led to a higher finish than 3rd place had I not misplayed the hand.
7 players left, 5 to cash, playing 3-handed, effective stacks 40bb.
I had 5 2 offsuit on the button (yes, this is absolute trash and we can happily fold 100% of the time even 3-handed at this stack depth, but guru gonna guru) and limped behind. BB (Villain) checked his option.
Flop came I don’t remember, say J 7 2. I check, Villain bets small, MP folds, I call.
Turn brings a backdoor flush draw, say 3d. Check check.
River is a miracle 5d! Bringing in the backdoor flush but giving me the most concealed 2pair of all timmmmme man! So I go for some value and bet like 30-40% pot or something.
Villain now raises to 4.5x! I will have only about 15bb left if I call and lose. With the timer running down, I frantically try to piece together the action… maybe he has the flush somehow and just checked his equity on the turn, knowing I’m sticky? He wouldn’t really slowplay anything too strong on the turn with various draws available…
And as I’m thinking “this doesn’t make sense, I should be good here all day,” I fold at the last second, not wanting to risk being the bubble boy and telling myself some nonsense about how Villain is a tight player, wouldn’t do this without blah blah blah
He showed a lousy pair of threes with an ace kicker!
Don’t overfold spots where you have top of range and villain can have bluffs or weaker hands that are spazzing. It’s a big leak in tournament play.
Lot of depends here, but without more info, 1. It’s much earlier in tournament. 2. If call and lose, while losing half stack would not be good, you do have about 2k behind left, to recover from, build back up, and can do so. 3. Villain flop check call equals good chance that have 66,77,88,99, T9 suited, T8 suited. 4. Villain’s flat call of your 444 turn bet looks like either 88,99, T9 suited, QT, KT, AT. If had pair of 10’s, Villain could minreraise to 900, since your late position call, preflop, flop call could be either be a draw, under pair, T8, T9, etc, and so villain could test to find out if have J, but if had J, it would likely mean you had JT, because J9, QJ, etc, is not likely to call the flop, and JT is only a small part of your range. Villain looks like playing the turn safe by flat calling. I Villain had the J, villain would have likely have reraised you. because it would have been semi bad to slowplay, flat call JJ, on drawy board, so by villain flat calling turn, Villain looks like has a flush draw, 88,99, T9, T8, KT. 5. When draw misses the river, Villain’s bet looks like either a busted draw semi bluff with T9suited, T9 suited, 99. About 10%, 15%, 20%, 25% chance that beat, about 73% chance that winning ahead. So it’s a call. It’s not a call I like to make, but villains play did not make sense, tell a believable story over the course of the whole hand, so because of that, QT, middle pair was a good bluff catch, value call in that situation. I wouldn’t like to call and be wrong in that situation, but I would make the call, and hope I’m right, that my read was right. If Villain had shoved all in that might have gotten you to fold, and might have gotten me to fold, because I would think that well maybe he was slowplaying a J, after all. A river shove all in by Villain would have probably been 50/50 fold/call, so either a fold, call, would have been ok, if Villain had shoved all in on river.
If this had happened between mid tourny, and late tourny, then it becomes a 50/50 fold/call. If happens very late tourny, near, on the bubble, this becomes a 85/15 fold/call,
A lot depends also what kind of player Villain is. Can, does Villain bluff between some to semi lot in these spots? If so its even more of a call. If Villain usually has it tho, this becomes a 50/50 fold/call or a 67/33 fold/call to 75/25 fold/call.
So no I probably call, and probably wouldn’t fold. Semi tough call to make. Have to think way thru it, make a good read, etc. If don’t do that, then the players that aren’t call stations, are probably going to fold, and just think their middle pair is beat by pair of J’s, if they don’t make a good read, and don’t break down, think their way thru the hand.
Also the short time that have to act, and not having a time bank to think, break the hand down in mind also makes the call a little tiny bit of a semi tough call, unless 1 can think fast, break the hand down in their mind very fast, which takes time, practice, to do, and do accurately, etc.
Your pretty good at doing that, and I am also semi ok at doing that. Like you, I wish we had either more time, or a time bank.
When analyzing hero’s hand, shouldn’t we be addressing the preflop in this situation. The blinds were low, the hero here should have bet at least a third of his stack, clean out crappy suited connectors or A 10, etcetera. If villain raises back, hero should shove the whole kitten caboodle, this question is like beating a dead horse, are we analyzing how to correct a preflop mistake or the art of the trap?
Shouldn’t the question be; when a good time is to trap, the best traps are out of range cards like 45 suited, trapping with big cards is not always profitable, giving your opponent’s opportunities to beat you, or to out play you, seems counterproductive, KK has like a 29%-win, what we do with the other 61% may be a better topic.
When I told Mike I would fold in this situation depending upon who the player was, It wasn’t Luke, If Luke was in the hand, and I was the hero, I would give him a taste preflop, at that point if he calls with 9/10s or whatever, if flop is below a king I shove.
When we discuss ranges, we can never rule out the constant testosterone/estrogen theory of players constantly trying to outplay each other, no matter what they have. Goatsoup was the best at reading a table, appropriate position, jeopardy bets, setting up the theater with each player. He knew exactly how much to bet to get you off your draw or weak kicker, he would purposely get caught in a bluff to engage the table into an all you can eat goat fest buffet, then when you bought in, your first mistake, he would systematically eat all the food on your plate.
Long range analytics are great for the online grinder that wants to make a profit and can be adapted to a free poker site to a degree, but being given time constraints, intelligence and experience will always be the deciding factor.
I never need the clock, I only let the clock run to say; I need to think about this, or projecting hand value, all drama, I never need to think about any hand, I am processing information at an alarming rate, if you are unable to process data/scenarios/options and react in the first two seconds of your turn, those that can will eat your lunch.
Your last statement is pure hogwash, I’m sorry. I can’t process all the relevant information to consistently make high-level decisions against thinking players in close spots in 2 seconds, and neither can you.
But the rest I firmly agree with. This is a trivial post flop spot; the only reason we’re still beating this particular dead horse is because @Asuronetorius is very stubborn in public discourse and for some reason more or less never admits anything he’s previously written could be less than 100% correct.
IF you aren’t going to 3bet KK preflop then you certainly can’t overfold to aggression on ace-free, semi-dry boards. End of discussion.
I wrote that wrong, correction in place, the analyzing is a constant while all is in play, I was referring to reaction time when your clock starts. I stand by my statement, you should already know what to do when it’s your turn by observing the action, not trying to ruffle your feathers, we are all different, if I have learned anything in all my years on this planet, it’s all men are not created equal
no feathers ruffled, sorry! I get adamant about diction; it’s a shortcoming lol
I agree with your statement about approach; I was thinking about this just last night. How I play so much better when I’m thinking ahead to the river all the way from preflop. Kind of like how a good pool player doesn’t play the first shot without having a plan for how to get all the way to the 8 ball.
But I still think we generally need more time for some difficult decisions! A good opponent will put you in spots where it’s hard to tell which part of their range you’re facing. Piecing that together sometimes takes longer than 20 seconds, even if you were prepared for the spot. That’s why we see 10-minute tanks in televised high-stakes games sometimes, right?
If you are using your time here to better your game for real money games, then yes absolutely
lol you would not recognise me at a cash game table 
He a genius, do not question him:)