Why The Best Poker Players Make Decisions At Random Sometimes
The many randomized elements of poker are a big part of what makes the game so strategically complex.
We can never know with 100% certainty what cards our opponents have, nor what cards are going to be dealt on the flop, turn and river. So why on earth would anyone want to add more randomized elements to the game.
Believe it or not, the best poker players in the world make some decisions at random–almost like rolling dice
Optimal frequencies usually require a mixed strategy
When constructing an ‘optimal’ poker strategy, we strive to make each decision at a certain frequency. You must call with at least 33% of the hands in your range when you’re getting 2-to-1 pot odds.
certain scenarios, it is optimal to choose different actions with the exact same hand at differing frequencies.
We as humans have biases that make us unable to accurately execute frequency-based decisions as intended.
You can “randomly” think of a number from 1 to 5, but your choice won’t be truly random. It will be based on a countless number of unconscious variable.
Players that employ an effective mixed strategy are tough to beat because we can’t make as many definitive assumptions about their ranges.
Using a random number generator
A simple way to accurately execute frequency-based decisions is by using a random number generator if you type RNG into Google.There’s actually an embedded one that comes up in the search which is really fast to use:
Just set the range to be between 1 and 100, and use the output to determine which action you should make depending upon your pre-determined frequencies.
When should I use a mixed strategy ?
The advantage of using a mixed strategy is that it helps keep you balanced and difficult to exploit, but this is not always necessary. Sometimes it is better to deviate from frequency-based decision-making.
For example, from a theoretical standpoint it might be optimal to flat a late position open with AA at some frequency. If you are at a 9 handed live game with a ton of limping and calling, however, it will be more profitable to go for value with a 3-bet 100% of the time.
That said, splitting your combos based upon frequencies is worth mixing in when you’re up against strong opponents.
Deciding on frequencies based upon the bet sizing you face/the sizing you use is a good way to prevent over-3-betting.
There will be times where you might want to take an aggressive bluffing line with certain hands a fraction of the time.
I hope this article helped you understand why randomization techniques can be useful when implementing an optimal and balanced strategy.