Why The Best Poker Players Make Decisions At Random Sometimes

Replay Poker Poker Discussion
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Why The Best Poker Players Make Decisions At Random Sometimes

The many randomized elements of poker are a big part of what makes the game so strategically complex.
We can never know with 100% certainty what cards our opponents have, nor what cards are going to be dealt on the flop, turn and river. So why on earth would anyone want to add more randomized elements to the game.

Believe it or not, the best poker players in the world make some decisions at random–almost like rolling dice

Optimal frequencies usually require a mixed strategy

When constructing an ‘optimal’ poker strategy, we strive to make each decision at a certain frequency. You must call with at least 33% of the hands in your range when you’re getting 2-to-1 pot odds.

certain scenarios, it is optimal to choose different actions with the exact same hand at differing frequencies.
We as humans have biases that make us unable to accurately execute frequency-based decisions as intended.

You can “randomly” think of a number from 1 to 5, but your choice won’t be truly random. It will be based on a countless number of unconscious variable.

Players that employ an effective mixed strategy are tough to beat because we can’t make as many definitive assumptions about their ranges.

Using a random number generator

A simple way to accurately execute frequency-based decisions is by using a random number generator if you type RNG into Google.There’s actually an embedded one that comes up in the search which is really fast to use:

Just set the range to be between 1 and 100, and use the output to determine which action you should make depending upon your pre-determined frequencies.

When should I use a mixed strategy ?

The advantage of using a mixed strategy is that it helps keep you balanced and difficult to exploit, but this is not always necessary. Sometimes it is better to deviate from frequency-based decision-making.

For example, from a theoretical standpoint it might be optimal to flat a late position open with AA at some frequency. If you are at a 9 handed live game with a ton of limping and calling, however, it will be more profitable to go for value with a 3-bet 100% of the time.
That said, splitting your combos based upon frequencies is worth mixing in when you’re up against strong opponents.

Deciding on frequencies based upon the bet sizing you face/the sizing you use is a good way to prevent over-3-betting.
There will be times where you might want to take an aggressive bluffing line with certain hands a fraction of the time.

I hope this article helped you understand why randomization techniques can be useful when implementing an optimal and balanced strategy.

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Thanks for this helpful topic.
There are so many nuances in the game and randomization is another nuance worth considering.
This is another important part of poker that you should pay attention to. I’m still a long way from learning this part of poker, but when I decide to delve into it, I’ll definitely come back to your topic.

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Hi Maxogon15

I glad you enjoyed the topic

I also feel the same way as yourself that im a good way of this sort of strategy being implemented into my game.

Also as you said its something worth being aware of and looking into at some point in your poker journey.

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Thank you for the article. I think you said it best when you said, “splitting your combos based upon frequencies is worth mixing in when you’re up against strong opponents.” I think this is an advanced topic and skillset and will only be effective vs strong opponents. The average player will not notice it and you’re better off playing more straightforwardly. I could see myself using this at an in-person tournament where I’ve spent several hours at the same table.

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Thankyou for this article, Not to that level yet but, hope i will someday. I do Like to be unpredictable though in every hand, I play. I suppose that could be considered random in a slight way lol

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Randomization in poker doesn’t mean pure chance, but rather unpredictability. As in optimal poker strategy, calculated risks are taken and frequencies are mixed to avoid opponents from exploiting patterns. Random decisions help maintain an elusive gameplay that is harder to read. Randomness is not just about having fun, but also about thwarting assumptions and strategic balance. It adds another layer of difficulty that can be confusing to opponents, and enhance gameplay.

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now my politeness dictates me to thank you for your thoughts on this subject , although i have to admit i understood nothing by reading it lol . Randomness … personally i play very simple poker , nano , micros low stakes , so why bother myself with more advanced theories or strategies :slight_smile:

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Great post! This has always been my best strategy. Keep them guessing. Well said.

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Absolutely, staying unpredictable can add an interesting edge to the game. It’s all about keeping your opponents guessing.

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I agree with you, but I want to add that this strategy depends on the situation.

As you say:

“The advantage of using a mixed strategy is that it helps keep you balanced and difficult to exploit, but this is not always necessary. Sometimes it is better to deviate from frequency-based decision-making.”

For example, at the very low stakes where the population is mainly recreational players and fish, which means people who don’t know about theory and almost always play their hand, I think a solid ABC strategy while trying to exploit opponents’ weaknesses is the best strategy. Now, sometimes when it comes to 3betting I may choose to use a RNG to make the decision whether to 3bet or not.

But at the higher stakes I think that randomizing part of your decisions is a solid strategy.

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I am definitely not one of the best poker players, but do believe one should always be unpredictable at all times. Otherwise others will figure out your constant strategy and play style, which leads to failure.

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I think it’s a way to be unpredictable, going out of your hand range often gives you the chance to get a good pot and fool your opponents.

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Very nice topic!
When i watch poker streams i try to analyse everybody hands which is involved and try to overthink step by step which player had the best hand and which one played it best way in relation to his starting hands.
For me it is not a new thing that poker pro´s try to use mixed strategies because sometimes you get same hands in short time and if you´re holding good hole cards you wont play it same way like minutes before because if there is a showdown ohter villains get more information about your style.

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Absolutely do this. Not saying I am considered “best Poker Player”, but I have done well enough on Replay, and there are times, that I go with my ‘gut feeling’ on a hand. And it usually pays off.

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You are absolutely correct, always be unpredictable. Thanks for the reminder for us all and Thanks @AuraSMagic , My theory in poker & Everything in life is Patience, Discipline and Faith. The gut feeling is the key of the faith, which comes from my spirit at times from my King/ Lord

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Just remember that in exploitable poker you do not need to randomize.

You win the most in poker by finding players that make big mistakes more than playing perfect yourself.

And if you are in such a tough game that you need to, change tables instead of using the old Dan Harrington “I let my watch tell me what to do”-technique.

Even the pros usually simplify GTO-charts so they take the action with the highest percentage.

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I would define a good poker player as a chameleon, where the player is always adapting to different situations, therefore playing the same way would make a player’s actions very predictable, random actions can be made based on this, to confuse opponents.

There are countless variations that the player can use, just define what best suits your style of play, with unpredictability being an excellent quality within poker.

I believe this justifies many of the random actions of excellent players.

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As a chameleon here and don’t consider myself as a good player, but always having fun! I believe it is critical to change not only their play style but also their bets in different situations. The situation is the key to success to win if played well IMO.

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A lot of players go with their gut feeling as seen here and as seen by professionals. When facing a huge potential bluff using your gut is the only offense you have besides folding but when you’re pot committed bluffing is the option

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There is a saying for poker: “You don’t really play against the opponents cards, you play against the player”.
Every advanced poker strategy article you can find online states that you have to mix up your range, not the bet sizing, in order to be more unpredictable. I am an infamous nit (“tight as a nun’s knickers” a British friend called me once :laughing:), so when I raise people put me on a very strong raise. Sometimes I delibarately play second rate hands, just for that.