Every poker player, regardless of their experience level, often complains about losing to unlikely rivers or miraculous two-outers. Even those with 30 years of experience can share stories about how a single card from a five-card deck turns the tide against them. Unfortunately, I’ve found this to be more of the norm at RP than the exception.
In the last 12 tournaments I’ve played, each with a million-chip buy-in or higher, I have lost to the river every single time, all within just five days! Two-outers and four-outers seem to hit the river like clockwork, making it something you come to expect.
My hands, specifically AA and KK, have had less than a 40%-win rate here, despite my consistently betting six to seven times the big blind pre-flop. While I’ve read the Certificate of Random Number Generator, it might be time to get it recertified. Flops like 999 and AAA happen, but not nearly as often as they do here. In contrast, I’ve played online on three different websites, and those experiences feel much more realistic.
Nah this just isn’t true, I’m sure of it. Show me the data. What you’re describing is confirmation bias. You expect to win with KK/AA and you just remember the times when your expectation isn’t met because it feels bad and stands out as surprising.
Anyway my notes on you say that you’re super loose and lack discipline, so that’s probably why you’re losing
I have consistently outperformed my competition year after year and have been playing here for over ten years—day in and day out, week after week. My notes indicate that you might be a potential RP employee. It is crucial to remember that you are communicating with a 78-year-old man who has played poker at the highest levels and has achieved significant victories. If you are going to defend RP, please provide me with credible facts and figures to support your argument. A random certificate with a disclaimer about room numbers is not convincing. You need to do better to persuade me.
RP employee LOL that’s a good one! They’ve muted me multiple times and removed some of my forum posts. I don’t think they’re about to start sending me a paycheck xD
I have an unhealthy fixation on speaking truth to misinformation; that’s why I replied to your post. I’ve no real investment in convincing you personally that the Replay deals are fair. If you think otherwise likely no evidence will change your mind.
I don’t think anyone here is trying to defend Replay, but it’s hard to correct someones incorrect expectations of randomness without sounding condescending.
If you’ve played here every day for 10+ years, how many tournaments is that? You don’t think in all that time you’re going to run bad in 12 tournaments in a row? 12 is just such an insignificant number when you’re dealing with a game with such high variance that any outcome is completely meaningless.
Regarding AA-KK. I was playing on another site (where I can get my full hand histories and so have actual data) where I felt like I was losing more than winning with AA and KK, and over the last 7000 hands I had been. Over 70,000 hands though, I was about at expectation with AA and slightly over with KK. Things balance themselves out in the long run, but it’s over timescales humans just can’t keep track of without recording actual data.
Ever time someone has actually bothered to record outcomes here on Replay, there’s never been anything unexpected, so I would suggest it’s now up to the people disputing the randomness/fairness to provide some data to the contrary.
What if the lives of the entire population on Earth haven’t been random either.
Every moment has been preplanned.
The soul before agreeing to one’s life had a preview of it and chose it.
That would cover the free will aspect beforehand.
It would also answer how the serendipitous moments happen.
My point here is that randomness is an illusion.
Just like some say life is an illusion.
The idea that life is an illusion has been explored by philosophers, scientists, and spiritual thinkers for centuries. Some interpretations of this concept come from:
Philosophy: Thinkers like Descartes questioned the nature of reality, wondering whether the world we perceive is just a projection of our minds.
Eastern Spirituality: Traditions like Hinduism and Buddhism suggest that the material world is “maya,” an illusion that distracts from deeper truths.
Science: Some interpretations of quantum mechanics hint at reality being fundamentally uncertain or dependent on observation.
Simulation Hypothesis: Some argue we could be living inside a highly advanced simulation, and our experience of reality is artificially constructed.
Math plays a fascinating role in exploring whether life is an illusion. Here’s how:
Simulation Hypothesis: Some theorists, like physicist Silas Beane, suggest that if our universe were a simulation, there might be mathematical inconsistencies—like limits on physical constants—that could reveal the “fabric” of our reality.
Geometry & Perception: The way we perceive space and dimensions is shaped by mathematical principles. Some argue our experience of reality is just a structured projection rather than absolute truth.
Quantum Mechanics & Probability: In quantum physics, reality appears probabilistic until observed. This raises questions about whether our world exists independently or if it’s a construct tied to observation.
Gödel’s Incompleteness Theorems: Gödel showed that within any mathematical system, there are truths that cannot be proven. Some philosophers extend this idea to reality itself—perhaps we are within a system that hides its own deeper truths.
Randomness plays a fascinating role in the question of whether reality is an illusion. Here’s how:
Quantum Uncertainty: At the quantum level, particles don’t have fixed states until observed, and their behavior is dictated by probabilities rather than certainties. If reality is built on randomness, could it mean our experience of order is just an illusion?
Chaos vs. Pattern: Some randomness appears truly unpredictable, but a deeper look often reveals hidden patterns—like fractals in nature or probabilistic structures in physics. This raises the question: is randomness real, or is it just our lack of knowledge creating the illusion of it?
Computational Limits: Some theorists argue that if our universe were a simulation, true randomness wouldn’t exist—everything would be determined by underlying code. If that’s true, then what we see as randomness might be a clever illusion within a structured system.
Free Will vs. Determinism: If randomness exists at a fundamental level, does that mean reality is uncontrolled and chaotic? Or is what we perceive as “choice” just an emergent property of complex but deterministic systems?
Maybe randomness is the universe’s way of keeping things interesting—or maybe it’s all part of a grand cosmic illusion. What do you think—is reality truly unpredictable, or just playing tricks on us?
We do not know nor can we understand reality, we are living in an illusion, veiled from true reality until after what we call death. We exist in three physical dimensions surrounded by at least one additional dimension we cannot perceive.
When someone tries very hard to convince you that they are not representing something, it’s likely that they actually are. The more I read your posts, the more I believe that you are advocating for RP in a unique way without any complaints. Now that we have identified your stance, please addressed your biases and clarified the outcomes. Many of the most successful and long-term players in RP share my perspective.
bruh I promise you I do not work for Replay
I spent most of my waking life last year on this site, so I understand the confusion hahaha
but I am not associated with Replay or Casino.org in any official capacity
you can see some of my older posts talking trash about the site’s failure to include certain basic features despite years of users asking for them; I don’t think I would post such things if I were on the payroll!
When someone tries very hard to deflect from the subject with points that don’t matter at all, you can tell their not convinced of their own argument. The title of the topic says “Real math” but so far you haven’t provided any of that.
I have stated this before and will once again. I have taking advantage of these patterns. I know better not to bet/raise on a flop that shows 2 cards of the same suit. I know the 3rd card of the same suit will hit the turn/river. we all know every suited hand gets played. we know these players will not fold regardless what someone bets/raises. therefore they’ll hit their flush. I recently posted a hand where I had KK and someone jammed all in with A,9 diamonds and I called. 2 diamonds on the flop. right away I knew I was gonna lose based on this happening over and over and over. sure enough, just like clockwork, 3rd diamond hit the river. same thing can be said for straight draws.
so when I flop a 3 of a kind and there’s a straight/ flush draws, I just check. I know better. I’ve seen it way to many times.
there are so many other patterns. once you know them, you can take full advantage of it. I have lasted a lot longer in tournaments because I know these patterns
Yes indeed, if I choose to play the algorithms, I can most often make it to the final table in a tournament (with a lot of folding of course). If I get QQ, KK, or AA they are suck me out of the tournament hands so I have to fold.
Check out the first week of the monthly marathon tournaments, every table’s chip leader is ranked 550k+.
I’ve been playing here for 14 years and have seen it all, I could go on and on, but why bother.
Those who know..know, those who don’t know probably never will.
I said too much in this thread and now I will not see a pair for two years.
