Something that blows my mind about replay is the RNG otherwise known as “Replay” Number Generator.
I have played at replay for over 5 years on and off many many hands and one of the high rankers (top 20) who left some time ago, once gave me some advice, they said play tight aggressive but never slow play anything unless you flop a royal or a straight flush with the inside cards because the river kills your hand an unreal percentage of the time. I took notice of this and the more I play the more I wonder if online poker is a game of skill or just luck as in buying a lotto ticket or even worse designed for action so as everyone from all skill levels can have a win and be a CHAMP for the day.
I have won 3 freerolls in a row 327 player then a 154 player and then a 57 player, I credit this mainly to scared players and very very lucky cards. I once held a 98 rank but got bored so lost some huge pots to just making people laugh with crazy calls and bets as my friends I met here had left and it was no longer as fun, My point is I’m not mad because I don’t win or have a lack of chips lets make this clear.
Ok so the one thing I have the most trouble with is that on Replay its virtually impossible to hit a hand when you flop 15 outs, yet statistically it should be some where around 54% chance from the flop.
Just to make sure everyone is on the same page that is when you flop an open ended straight draw (8outs) and at the same time you have a flush draw (9 outs) not counting outs twice I believe this is 15 outs.
So any way in 5 years I can count the amount of times on my hands that I hit the flush or straight when flopping 15 outs, I don’t expect to win! just to hit a hand when I have a 54% chance, it got to the point when I would write in the chat box I have 15 outs watch me lose and then I would shove and every time I did.
Now of cause everyone is going to say you have to play millions of hands for it to be a 54% chance over 5 years, well I am talking about hundreds of thousands of hands, then there are those who will say you remember the bad beats but never the suckouts or wins/good runs, and this is true but after noticing that the more outs I have the worse I do I made a point of every time I missed my draw in that situation, it would be close to 5% of them hit and 95% miss. So do we come to the conclusion that Math is useless online and its just a fun place to chat and throw chips around or what??
Just another fact to add…this bothered me so much that I took a deck of cards out and setup the scenario up then shuffled the rest of the deck and ran the deck through, every time it ended up at 45-65% of the time it hit a straight or flush, I ran this scenario through 100 times and it was very close to 50% of the time it hit and 50% of the time it didn’t so why is it so far off with replay?
Id say I have lost more big pots to bad calls sucking out then Ive ever lost to bluffs being called down or bad calls on my part here but that might be just something that comes with free poker so I wont get into that.
PS This is the best free money site any where and the layout is nicer and user friendly then all the leading real money sites so my aim is not to run the site down in any way. (My opinion)
Thanks Gill