Evaluating my Replay game

Replay Poker Poker Discussion
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So I probably spent too much time on this - but it was kind of a fun exercise. The idea was to try and evaluate my game - how good/bad/average am I in the Replay Poker realm? (Which is decidedly different from the “real life poker realm”) What could I learn from this evaluation to get better? Do other players see things in my evaluation that I missed? Feel free to be blunt if you have thoughts on what I’m saying below.

First, forget your Replay Ranking - it’s nice that Reply provides that metric, but as a practical application in a system where you can buy millions of chips and hence buy an increase in your rank, take that number lightly if at all.

The statistics Reply tracks for you are much more helpful - but still lacking something, so i included a self-analysis of those stats along with a 100 tournament stretch at nothing but SnG 6, no limit tables. (I know 100 tournaments may not be a truly statistically significant sample - but it was all I had the patience to keep track)

I also understand that the lack of consistent quality of competitors is a big factor - but you play whoever shows up at the table, and that’s that.

So anyway - first a quick stats analysis:

I’ve only played 20,921 total hands since joining - might seem like a lot, but I know it’s not.

Anyway, of those hands I folded 11,002 total times for a 53% overall fold rate. I’m OK with that given Replay’s particular format, blind structure, mix of player type, etc. At a real table with good players, I’m folding more often - but here, I’m OK with that number.

But here’s what I think was the most interesting stat: Pots won, 7,131

That’s a 34 percent win rate overall - and I guess that’s OK, but it’s not the interesting part.

The interesting part is that I’ve seen 13,454 flops. So statistically, when I saw a flop, I won the pot 53 percent of the time. I kind of like that number - maybe it should be better, but for now, I’m good with it.

So right or wrong, I feel pretty good about what my overall stats say about me - but they included ring games, SnG 3turbos, 6 seat tables and some 9 seat tables. I wanted an extended analysis of one type of game for consistent analysis - so I went with SnG 6 seat, 500 buy-in table. I ran into what I’d call both good and bad players here - as I suspect you run into at any table, but again - you play whoever shows up.

So anyway, here’s the overall list of my finishing position over 100 six-seat tournaments:

1st: 29 times
2nd: 18 times
3rd: 20 times
4th: 6 times
5th: 22 times
6th: 5 times

So what does this tell me? Well, first I do like the fact that I won 29 percent of the 6 seat tourneys I entered - and I like the fact that I finished in the money 47 percent of the time. From a profit standpoint, for the 50,000 chips I spent in entry fees, I gained 19,390 chips - a nearly 39 percent return. I’m good with that.

I think the most interesting line is getting knocked out in the 5th spot 22 times - and maybe that’s where I should be looking to improve. I can tell you why I think it happened there so much - I play it pretty safe early, but once that first player is out, my strategy was to be more aggressive because I wanted to be close to if not the chip leader when we hit the top four. My primary thought was "make it to the top two - try to ensure finishing in the money, and then let winning take care of itself - and being at or near the top of the chip count with four players left helped getting there. I think that strategy generally worked well - though looking at 22 knockouts in 5th, maybe I could be a bit more careful in those spots.

So what’s it all mean?? I dunno. Overall, I feel pretty good about my game right now, but I think it boils down to patience, and I think I might try to exhibit a bit more in the early rounds. Wait for my cards, pick my spots, try not to be too rash too quick. That doesn’t mean I don’t bluff out a pot from time while holding squat - I do - but perhaps be a bit more careful about that. Make sure I hang around, because as long as I’m hanging around, I’ve got a shot.

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Do other players see things in my evaluation that I missed? Feel free to be blunt if you have thoughts on what I’m saying below.

I’ll be blunt but fair. How much profit have you made? You’ve got 222,681 chips at the moment and you’ve been on the site since November. Intuitively, it’s not a good statistic. But let’s look in more detail.

Have you been logging in every day and getting your bonuses? You get 500 on your first day, 1000 on your second day, 2000 on your third day, 2000 on your fourth day, and 2500 every day subsequently. Add them all up and then subtract that number from your balance.

I don’t know when exactly you started playing. All I know is November. For simplicity’s sake, let’s overlook November.

December: 2,500 x 31 days = 77,500
January: 2,500 x 31 days = 77,500.
February: 2,500 x 28 = 70,000
March: 2,500 x 27 (to today) = 67,500
Sum: 292,500
Therefore 222,681 - 292,500 = -69,819 (-24%).

So, without taking November into consideration (which would make your data even worse, because more days = more bonuses), you’ve made a loss. Your balance is lower than total chips received from RP.

However, that’s making the massive assumption that you’ve been logging in every day and collecting your bonuses. If you’ve been visiting the site every day since November, your game play has resulted in a loss of a quite significant amount of chips.

Having just taken a quick look at some of your hands, it would seem that you have a strong tendency to win before showdown. You have an aggressive style of play. However, winning games does not necessarily translate into sustainable profit. If I play ten games and win 9 of them and make a modest profit from doing so, yet lose all my chips in the tenth game, that means I’ve got a win rate of 90% but a negative profit margin.

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Fair points. I would say that my game has changed quite a bit over the months, and the first couple of months likely skew strongly to the losing side. I think I certainly lost a lot more than I won on this site over my first couple of months or so, then got better as time went on and I developed a style of play that suited me.

I feel like my 100 tournament run is more indicative of my current success/failure rate in general. In the midst of that 100 tourney run (which did net a 39 percent return, so I think I’m on the right track there), I also played 17 (I think it was 17) 9 seat tourneys and finished in the money 8 times - so that run was also profitable (not 39 percent, but profitable), so again, maybe I’m on the right track.

I get your “if I play ten games, win 9, but lose the tenth big” analysis and I absolutely agree with it, but that doesn’t really fit the tournament format I’ve come to pretty much exclusively enjoy playing on this site. In that format, if I win 9 tournaments but lose the one - and assuming equal entry fees for all of them - I’d be killing it.

I’m not winning tourneys at a 90 percent rate (is anyone?) but I think if I can hold up a tourney win rate of about close to 30 percent (and finish in the money 45-50 percent of the time overall) - the general percentage I did in the 100 tourney run - and get a ROI of anywhere near 39 percent - I think I’ll be doing fine.

That begs the question: Is thinking I can sustain that rate long term an unrealistic expectation? I’m thinking it might be - but I guess I’ll find out soon enough. Maybe I’ll keep track of my next 100 just to see if I’m keeping it in that ballpark.

Thanks for the input!

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That first place was your most common finish is quite good, and to me suggests you’re beating the tournaments you were entering. You finished in the top half a significant majority of the time, too (77%), which also shows you are outplaying the average player in those tournaments.

On the fold statistics, I think you’re right that folding 53% of the time against fairly soft opposition, never with more than 5 opponents (and less much of the time as players drop out) is probably fine. Playing mostly 9 max cash games, I’m at a 76% pre flop fold rate, but imagine my numbers would be fairly close to yours playing in that format.

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Thanks, JanCee! Wishing you luck as well!

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I find the fold stat real interesting. I know when I first started playing, I folded far, far less than I do now. I had a perhaps outdated take on online, no real cash involved poker: No one folds, the money isn’t real, so why not take a look at every damn flop? Why not hope for that gutshot straight on the river?

Once I finally decided that if I was going to keep playing I would try to treat my fake money like real money, things changed. I started to take advantage of all aspects of folding - and we both know it’s not only to cut losses, or to not get into a hand holding trash, or to just get out of hand that’s taken a bad turn before you do something stupid. Sure, those are some primary reasons, but it can also have real value in other areas with a little more purposeful use depending on how your opponents are playing.

Thanks for the input!

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Accidentally deleted my post while trying to edit it! Just agreed with Elvoid’s post, with a couple (banal) thoughts of my own. lol

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