Two Bluffs

I need to get better at bluffing. I think that the main reason that I’m not great at bluffing is because I don’t get much practice at it. I don’t get much practice because at these low stakes, bluffing all these call stations isn’t very profitable, at least not nearly as profitable as value betting all my made hands.

I made a couple of successful bluffs today and I’d like some advice.

T8s
Pre ~ I recently took tournament chip lead from the guy on my left. I limp from SB because the pot odds (7-handed) made it worth it to mix one in. Pot is 420. (heh)
Flop ~ Middle pair, 2 backdoors. I check because hey, there are 6 Villains. CO leads for 2bb (30%). I call and there are 3 folds, so 4-handed.
Turn ~ 7sp kills my flush draw but gives me a gut draw. CO leads again for half-pot. I call because I know this Villain (he’s decent) and I know that he will bet boards that he doesn’t hit when the table is weak.
River ~ 5ht busts my draw but puts a 1-liner on the board. I bet half-pot. Everyone folds and I take down 45bb. (yes! fist pump!)

Should I have re-raised the turn? I think that I would have if I was heads-up, but being 4-handed made me cautious.

Should I have bet bigger on the river? I think I should have bet pot, although that may have made it look more like a bluff than value. Maybe 3/4-pot?

How much did my calls of the previous streets make my river bet look like value?

My reasoning for picking the spot was that the board was straighty and the CO is the kind of player that will easily recognize that. I find that weak players will always be afraid of suited boards because they are easy to see but straights aren’t as easy for untrained eyes to see so they often miss them (fishy players are often blind to 679 say, so you can’t bluff it). We were still 4-handed. I felt that CO was one of the few players that I regularly see who has a sensible fold button. The other 2 Villains really just had small stacks and this was the river. They seemed like most of the players that I face that will call so long as there is still another card to come. Once the board is full and the hand is made they’re ready to fold, and if they do call, I only stand to lose 10-20% of my stack.

22
Pre ~ It’s another limp. Honest, I don’t do this very often at all, especially from MP. BB raises 2x and we all call, 5-handed (I’m actually wondering why the hell I did that). Only the CO is behind me.
Flop ~ I whiff but with an A and 2 clubs the board is bluffable. It checks to me (including the PFR in BB). I lead for 30%-pot. Everyone folds except the BB.
Turn ~ K (non-club). BB checks. I bet about 45%-pot. Villain folds and I take 17bb.

Before you say anything. Agree. I should not have limped. I should have just opened standard, but I want to talk about the bluff.

How is my bet sizing (on both streets)?

I think that this turn goes sideways if I don’t lead that flop. Agree?

How much do you think my stack helps me here? Like how intimidating is that large number just on its own to these Villains? I guess that depends on what they have. : P

Why I liked the turn: CO folded and I had position heads-up. BB had checked BOTH streets. He was probably drawing. Or he had a medium pocket pair and checked flop because of the A, so when the K turned that scared him even more. I don’t know this guy at all though.

This is not really a bottom-of-my range bluff. My cards are effectively total napkins. I have air here because I lose to anything that he could possibly call me with. I only beat Q high (which he would not call with). I think that this one was better played than T8s (other than the pre). Am I right?

Napkin when playing smaller stakes tournament buy ins, in general yes you shouldnt be bluffing, but despite that, you can still bluff occasionally, less often vs the right players, in good spots, etc.

How do you recognize good spots, and how do you execute good bluffs in good spots?

  1. If your up against a good, thinking player, that has a fold button.
    Those type of players are rare, but still exist at lower stakes.

  2. If you have a range advantage, and if your range likely hits the board, flop, and the board likely does not hit your opponents range.
    If the board Q72, or J73, etc, type boards, then they are better for your range because your more likely to have a J, Q in your range. A K is borderline, because like the A, players like to call with starting hands that have K, or Ace in it, even if it K2, A2 rags. And thats what also makes A on flop, board bad to bluff, except for exception.

  3. The exceptions on the K, A on flop board rule, is if preflop caller on BB, and they loosely defend BB with anything. If they check to you postflop, and if there is a K or A on board, and if they have a fold button, you can cbet, semi bluff, bluff, etc, with air, because its less likely that K or A hits their call on BB range, as that flop, board moreb likely hits range.

  4. Another exception to the do not bluff a A or K on board general rule, is if a A or K hits turn or river, and they check flop, turn, river, etc, then its ok to take a bluff stab at it, if players have a fold button, and if you have a good image, as the A or K more likely hits your range then your opponents range.

  5. If you limped in a garbage hand in or have a garbage hand on blinds, and it checks around, and you see a flop, and then if everybody checks to turn, river, and on turn, river, then if you have a good image, and if players have a fold button, then its ok to occasionally bluff that 72 on the turn, river, as thats the only way it can win.

  6. Tell a believable story with your bluff, if you bluff,

  7. play, do your bluff, the same way you would play a good, monster hand, etc.

  8. Only bet pot, all in with a bluff, if that is what is needed to fold out opponent, if opponent has a fold button and uses it, and if a opponent does not realize that a all in, big bet can semi likely occasionally mean that bluffing, and that if you have it, you would bet smaller to not force a fold.

  9. Only bet smaller on a bluff if your opponent is not in habit of calling small bets, small raises

  10. Only bluff if you have a good image.

  11. Its ok if you get caught, and if they see your bluffing, and if you lose 3% to 7% to 13% of your stack on a caught, seen bluff, occasionally, as long as doesnt happen too often. This can balance out range, and get you a call when you do have the goods. Also any bluffs only have to work, be successful a certain percentage of the time, in order to be profitable over the long term. So if your occasionally caught bluffing, dont sweat it, its good practice, its still profitable over the long term, and it wont kill your stack, and you can still win the tournament, etc.

  12. Its ok to show your bluff once in a great while on rare, uncommon occasions, to try to tilt players, and to try to get calls in future. So if your semi tight to semi moderate, and if you have good image, and if everyone is folding to your raises, bets, whjen you have the goods, then start occasionally showing bluffs to show them that your not a NIT, etc, in order to get calls when you have the goods.

  13. Do NOT bluff, or overbluff, vs call stations, bad flops, bad boards, etc, especially at lower stakes. At lower stakes you should bluff less often then do at higher stakes.

  14. And thats because at lower stakes you can often play semi ABC poker, and out make less mistakes then your opponents. As long as playing late position, positional poker in a semi ABC way, in a semi mistake free way, making less mistakes then your opponents at the lower stakes, you will still win a lot at lower stakes, despite not bluffing as often at lower stakes.

I had lots of successful bluffs at lower stakes, even tho I hardly ever bluffed at lower stakes.

I just often played low mistake, almost mistake free, with less mistakes then competition, poker, with some rare bluffs that were successful, almost all the time, sprinkled in, and that was very profitable, and moved me up stakes quickly. And thats because I followed these guidelines, tips, despite the occasional bad runs, bad beats, etc.

1 Like

T8s - So the first question should be, do you have a hand that can win at showdown. Normally I’d say no, but if you think the cutoff might just be attacking weak ranges and not actually have a K, then you probably do. Bluffing might still be good, there are some better Tx hands you might get to fold, but really you need to be able to get a K to fold most of the time for the bluff to be good here.
There’s only a 3/4 pot sized bet left, so every size is essentially all-in unless you bet tiny. That doesn’t seem like the right size, so you should be putting everyone all-in here.

I like the turn raise more though. I think it looks more like you’ve made a straight with 98 then delaying to the river, and you have reasonable equity if called. You’ll get called by more draws, which is also a good thing, because you should be ahead of all those.

It’s pretty ambitious bluffing into 3 others regardless of how you do it, so well done, but you should probably just skip this spot next time and hope it checks down on the river.

22 - Agree (although 22 is a fold pre, not an open, so I actually think limping it is fine if you’re unlikely to get squeezed). But yeah, once you’re here, if you’re going to bluff you need to bet the flop. Hard to say how much your stack intimidates, but it can’t hurt, so should encourage you to bluff more. 22 is a fine candidate. I like the sizing on both streets. This is definitely better played than the first hand.

1 Like

I agree with @lihiue, actually he said exactly my analysis word-for-word, but we disagree on one point: I think this is a great bluff and you should look to find these spots more often :slight_smile:

The board was already getting connected on the turn, and everyone check-called a relatively small bet. These players aren’t good enough to have a lot of straights here that don’t lead out or check-raise most of the time. Their ranges are CAPPED.

I would have check-raised the turn all-in, but I like your line as well: donking into the field on the river looks SUPER strong. For that reason, your bet sizing was actually a nice leveling-style exploit; I’m sure your opponents all thought they were very clever folding to an inappropriately small bet (“she’s trying to MILK ME”).

But in general, you should use the all-in sizing here, just in case anyone has a funky 2pair or even top pair that gets curious. In a more theoretical sense, you’d want to use that size for value, so you should also use that size for your bluffs.

I think on Replay you will print chipEV with this play in this configuration. For real $, yeah, there are many better spots. We block some straights but our action doesn’t add up to many straights as played, and there are plenty of hands in an equilibrium range that arrive to this river happy (or at least willing) to call your bluff.

1 Like

For the first, its good to bluff here, half pot is enough,
Turn i dont understand why check raise all in tbh, we had a pair, and vilain would not fold a king and we dont take value so really just call is very normal to me.

22 is not openable 20BB deep at LJ (anyway not an open even 100BB deep)
Only open this at the BTN 20BB deep or maybe CO

Is villain more likely to fold a K on the river? Certainly, if a T, 9 or 8 hit, but that’s bad for us. It means we have no implied odds with our hand, and that is a point against call. It’s less clear for the rest of the deck, but any other scare cards for a K must also bring in a lot of hands for the two other opponents that now beat us too and are never folding.

Going all-in on the turn is a merge. We’re not really trying to fold a K, but a better T might. More than that though, we get called by a lot of hands that we’re ahead of, and everything that folds had some equity against us. There’s a lot of 87, 97, 86, 75, 65 that will almost certainly call the turn but likely fold the river (except the hands that are now 2 pair of course). There’s a bunch of hands that might call but that we’re also very happy to see fold, A9, A8, Q9, Q8, J9, J8. Basically, there’s more good stuff that can happen if we jam the turn than bad.
(There’s some merit to fold as well, and call is not awful, but it has to be the lowest EV option)

1 Like

The merge bet is back, and it’s sexier than ever!

ok

I didn’t mean that I should have opened 22 specifically. I meant that if I was going to play the hand (regardless of the cards) from MP I should just open it.

Here are some more from yesterday. I’d love to get some feedback. Did I play them well? Was I just lucky? How is my analysis? Some general knowledge on these different kinds of situations?

Steal
Straight forward. J7 but could be any two cards. On SB and it folds around to me. I open large and BB folds. Don’t need to discuss this one much. It’s just here to check the box.

Checked Streets
66 but the hand is immaterial. Limpy table so I opened for 6x from BB. Whiffed hard but 2 checked streets on a pretty wet board so I led the river heads-up for about 45% pot and took it.

Scary Flop
77 but again it doesn’t matter. Limp pot again. I limp from the CO and get position 3-handed. Flop TAK-dia-monotone. Checks to me. I bet pot on the flush scare and take it down. Position was key here.

Double-Paired Board
You know this goes. You go down through the list.
1 ~ Who has quads? (in this case on 3 checked streets? no one)
2 ~ Who has a K?
3 ~ Who has a 7?
4 ~ In this case does anyone have QQ?
5 ~ Who has pocket pair higher than 77?
6 ~ Who has A kicker?
I had A9o so I bet the pot and took it. I may have pushed Villain off of a chop here.

Busted Draw
Not a classic busted draw since I didn’t actually barrel anything but I did call pot on the flop. Limped 98o from BT and go 4-handed against SB BB and +1. Flopped 876-rainbow for open ended. BB leads (with pot with 2/3rds of his stack!!). I call (would have folded gut), heads-up. The turn brings in 54 and also heart draw. BB checks. He is very polarized here I think, his flop bet was either bluff (or semi-bluff draw) or he is check-raising this turn since I had called large. I check it back. River busts my draw and I have 88 catcher, but it brings in 5x and hearts (scare). He checks again. I sense weakness and bet pot. Villain lays down. In hindsight, judging by his stack behind I think he’s very weak here. I probably could/should have done this on the turn in case he was drawing. Although with my weak pair I might have even been ahead here. This was a funky one.

The busted draw bluff requires showing strength on previous streets and although I only led the river, calling pot on the flop showed enough strength (in this particular case against weak Villain). Like I said, not a classic example.

Simple Aggression
Limp pot heads-up in position. Whiffed 77 on a very average looking flop, 3TQ-2-tone. Checks to me. I bet almost half-pot and it’s over.

All of these bluffs share a common element: weak or very weak opponents (not in their abilities, just in these specific spots of course) - at least I saw them as weak (did I miss anything?) - or at least limpy generally weak tables. This of course begs the question: how do you get someone off of a STRONG hand?

Checked Streets
This is very good. You don’t credibly represent a K, but you can easily have Jx, 8’s, 9’s and T’s, and you only need to get 7x to fold. You can probably go a little smaller and still get that done, but you’re definitely in the right ballpark here.

Scary Flop
The bluff is fine, the size is way too big. It’s very difficult for your opponents to have a single diamond hand that isn’t also a pair, and the only ones of those that might fold you’re ahead of anyway. It’s much better to go small here and take down the pot on later streets (or give up if you get raised or a 4th diamond rolls off).

Double-Paired Board
Your missing the most likely hand in you analysis, which is Qx. You don’t really rep any of the hands you list, so Qx should always be calling. If that’s the case, you don’t actually get any better hands to fold, so the bluff isn’t accomplishing much.

Busted Draw
Jam the flop instead of just calling. For less than 1/6 pot, this is a value betting against AK, not a bluff. Still, it would have been easy to just check this back, but you do get called by worse here (because people will be aware you’re capable of bluffing), so the most important thing is that all the money goes in.

Simple Aggression
This is much better. I don’t think you fold out many better hands yet, but you deny some equity and can still barrel plenty of turns.

You often can’t, but also don’t usually have to. One mistake you seem to be making is betting big to try and fold out everything, but that is not always required. If you can get a decent part of their range to fold out for a small/medium size, that’s likely to be the most efficient play.

1 Like

A better Busted Draw example.
K9o on the BB and they let me check it closed, 4-handed. Flop 9TJ for a gut with bottom pair catcher. I lead for approx 1/4-pot wit the full intention to bluff river if I bust. I get 1 fold, CO and SB call. Turn brings spade draw. Again I lead for approx 30% and again get 2 calls. At this point at least one Villain (maybe both) is drawing just like me. River bricks. I bet pot. I wanted to bet less but there were 2 Villains. CO folds but SB calls with top-pair-2nd-kick. It blows up in my face but I think I win this more often than not. Am I wrong? Also, did my river bet size look too bluffy? He called with weak made on a straight line flop against a 3-street aggressor.

Representing what though? I mean, I like the idea, but your sizing isn’t telling a consistent story. I think the turn is the main problem, because 2-pair+ hands just go large here. The jump to pot on a river that can’t be doing anything for you (unless you have exactly J6) is indeed going to seem bluffy, but it would be more credible if you’d gone at least 3/4 on the flop.
Also, while it’s fine having a plan for the river on the flop, you still want to evaluate all your options. You seem fairly confident at least one player is drawing, so what about checking to let them bluff? You then have the option of catching, bluff raising or folding depending on the action.
I think you’re right that this gets through enough to be profitable though.

You;re the one who told me to bet smaller out of position, so 1/4-pot on the flop but I guess there’s more to it than that.

Sorry, I typed the wrong thing there. 1/4 on the flop is good. It’s the turn size that I think should be larger.

Ahh, that makes a lot more sense.

I have to bluff now since I can’t hit anything anymore. I’m losing so much money everywhere I’m so disillusioned that I have no idea if I’m making good or bad decisions. I have to just stop playing.

Anyways, this hand, I either bossed this or was a total fool for betting into all those diamonds out of position, 3-handed with air. I have no idea.

QJsp.

Villain should’ve ripped it in your face on the river, thank goodness they don’t have that in their arsenal! :wink:

I mean your line here was weak and your turn sizing doesn’t make much sense, but you correctly identified that Villain was even weaker and took advantage. In theory it’s probably just a punt, but as an exploit - as usual, I think any pot you can steal from these guys is a good pot =-P

1 Like