@napkin_holder Villain makes a couple mistakes here; have a go!
1 ~ He limps from the SB despite being over 100bb deep. Heās out of position and he just widened his perceived range.
2 ~ Leading the flop half-pot is rather big. Too big for value so it looks bluffy, (which is probably what it really is given that he eventually folded river, but we donāt know that yet) and his limp pre widening his range increases his bluff frequency here.
3 ~ He bets 1/3rd on the paired board turn āscareā which in itself is fine except that you already called half-pot on flop, so the chances that you call again are higher (especially since weāre deep enough that this is all still very playable). If heās still bluffing, heās probably donating chips to your cause. But hey, maybe he really does have A4 given his limp? If so, he really shouldnāt be playing A-wheel from the SB.
4 ~ He bets the river thin, giving you pot odds. You come over top and he folds, so obviously he had weak made or air, so itās a bad time to disguise a bluff as value, especially since heās the one who built the pot for you.
I was mostly focused here on #3 and #4, both well stated by you.
Both the turn and river bets are too small, at least given that he eventually folded to a raise. On the river he should check-call if heās scared of a raise, or bet a larger size himself that makes raising as a bluff less appealing/represents more strength.
When I called on the turn, I was already thinking about what rivers Iād bluff if I missed. But Villainās small sizing was too much of an invitation to pass up regardless. Made my decision a lot easier.
Itās a very common sizing error
And exploiting it can be quite profitable
Not just widened, capped. Massively. SB is so strongly incentivized to raise with any hand they actually want to play that their limping range is going to be mostly garbage. Thereāll be a few slow plays too of course, but thatās their problem and not something you need to consider.
If the player is just clicking buttons, 1/2 pot is the small size. This screams āI have a ten, Iām calling pot, but Iād rather continue for halfā to me.
A player who just limps from the small blind probably isnāt turning air into a bluff here too often.
Turn - ok, now we know theyāre not just choosing between 1/2 and full pot, so we have to add some weak Queens into the range as wellā¦and then immediately discard most of those because theyāve gone less than 1/3. Good news for us is that itās now very likely that if they were leading a 4 theyād have gone smaller on the flop, so there are less of those in range. This is almost always a T still.
River - I wouldnāt expect many Tx to still be betting, so this is probably a good T that should have opened pre, or a weak Q. This is almost never a 4 though, unless itās exactly 43 looking to induce. People do massively over-bluff when they use a small size, but Iām not sure that applies when they bet all 3 streets. Still, as hero, I donāt expect to have any showdown value here, and for a raise to get through almost always. We still have every single 4 still in range (except for pocket 4ās and A4s that usually would have raised pre).
Once the river comes out that size I am no longer bothering to assign Villain a range or specific hand at all, I am just thinking āhow big can I raise without it looking ridiculous, because this guy is super ready to foldā
@napkin_holder you know you can do this all day!
Yeah, especially when they start with pot, get called and then down-bet on a card that doesnāt change anything.
I honestly never thought about it this directly, but itās a nice side effect of cbetting a small size with 100% of our range on most boards: we are setup nicely to use proper sizes on subsequent streets without having to bet too huge in terms of absolute chip value.
I think Iām missing a little bit.
Well first ā¦ what the actual (!!!) was the guy on your right (the PFR no less!) calling down until his stack was gone and then folding to a min bet on the river? On top of that sizing his opening to his small stack. heās someone who doesnāt have a plan at all.
As for the rest of them, with technically not but effectively yes a limp pot, ranges are wide enough to include A2, A3, no? How would thin bets out of position on turn and river not be for value on a made wheel or a 5x?
Unless you already have them booked as weak players that always tip the strength of their hands by their action. Then it totally makes sense.
Forgive me, Iām a noob.
Oh yeah, me neither in game most times. Iām primarily deciding if I think the opponent is weak or strong. If I can find a sensible range that backs up my read in the time permitted, great.
Or at least I should be - I still make plenty of mistakes where I get this the other way around - narrow players down to a sensible range and then guess which part of that range is more likely. I donāt get thin value anywhere near enough and make way too many calls that are probably fine in theory, but awful in practice.
Or are you saying that itās too easy for a boat rep to come overtop of that river min?
Itās a double flush draw board on the turn. Are you min-betting a straight against 3 other players? And thatās only one of the players - the others checked/called or just called with the effective nuts against 3 others on a draw heavy board.
I just donāt care about losing to anyone who is going to slow play a straight here. Iāll get their chips soon enough. Same goes for sets and two-pairs.
The only argument for not raising the river here is that youāre probably already ahead of the weak bluff from the LJ and likely worse 4x from the HJ. I actually think this is probably a value raise as played, because you will sometimes get called by worse 4x.
Damn.
Maybe someday I could teach you about songwriting as well as you guys know poker.
Hahaha, waaaayyy back in the day I actually did some music and all of the sfx for this masterpiece: Worst Games Ever - Mary Kate and Ashley: Winners Circle
@lihiue hahahahaha good stuff