100K/200K
3 handed
46.2M eff
H btn Kc9h 500K, sb fold, bb call
Flop (1.1M) Td6d8c x, H 700K, bb x/r 3.2M, H call
Turn (7.5M) Ac 4.5M, H call
River (16.6M) 9c 9.5M, H is all in for 38M…
Line x… results soon to follow… have fun… 
Ah, the joys of playing out of position. I genuinely feel sorry for V in this hand. After the flop x/r gets called, he’s going to need to continue on a bunch of turns and rivers, and with the backdoor flush getting there, and four to a straight on the board, his value hands from the flop aren’t looking so hot anymore. Unless he had 97, which is heavily blocked by the board and your hand.
I like that you have Kc in your hand, allowing you to rep the nut BDF while blocking V’s. However, holding an offsuit 9 hurts you, since V is now less likely to have been bluffing with J9 or Q9.
Also worthwhile to consider is what draws V may have been betting in earlier streets. You don’t block any diamond flush draws, which is good. However, you also don’t block 77 or QJo, both of which might have been too weak to 3-bet preflop, made reasonable bluffing candidates earlier in the hand, and landed straights in the river. These would be in an awkward spot, particularly combos with no clubs, but would probably still end up calling. Really not sure what I would do with 99 here in V’s shoes, though there’s only one combo left. Other sets I probably would have check-called river.
If there’s one part of this line I dislike, it’s probably the flat facing a pot-sized x/r on the flop. Unless V is getting out of line with that action, you’re probably -EV on a call with a gutshot, overcard, and no flush potential. You’ll have a very wide range opening from the button, so you should have much stronger draws or made hands on this flop to have to worry about minimum defense frequencies if you choose to fold.
3 Likes
All kinds of evildoing going on here
Any player specific reads? What is this guy capable of?
ADDED: The turn is super interesting. The action suggests that V is decent but not playing GTO-based strategies.
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Preflop
I’m assuming you’re opening like a 45% range here. All Ax, 22+, all broadways, suited connectors down to 63s, other weak suited hands such as K2s, J7s
Flop
Are you cbetting all your 1-card gutshots here? You have about a million draws on this board so I feel like you have some better options available (e.g. Kd9x, Ad9x)
I don’t think I like calling the flop x-r. V’s bet size is pretty large so you don’t have to defend all that much, and you’re going to have all kinds of flush draws and OESD on this board, in addition to all the sets, straights, 2pair and overpairs in your range.
Turn
Again I think you have better candidates to call with. For example you should have quite a bit of AX in your range from your various flush draws.
River
As played I like the jam. Kc is a nice blocker to have, and you are going to have to turn some single pair hands into bluffs.
2 Likes
This looks like something I’d probably play against you with, like, 68o and then hero-called the river despite all those draws getting there because the overbet “looks bluffy to me” or some stupid rationalization.
In other words: in the real world, as others above have noted, that jam is probably effective enough to be profitable. Against morons like me that you run into on replay, you’re going to get looked up more than you think/should.
5 Likes
Indeed sir!
V has had a tendency to over fold, playing mostly fit or fold. V has been on a bit of a tear recently and imo has been playing much better though.
@WannabeCoder and @love2eattacos I think you’re pretty spot on with all of your analysis. Having the 9d would be much better for this defense of flop x/r. I don’t believe V is aggressively x/r straight or flush draws so 9d blocking combo draws would be a much better holding. Thanks fellas.
In game I bet flop having a nut blocker not expecting to be x/r often. V shouldn’t have over pairs and I don’t expect to be floated by overs that often. My thinking was that if I got called there would be a ton of cards I could use to put a lot of pressure on V. When I did get x/r I believed I was up against pretty strong value. Having a straight draw in position with 43M back I don’t think I can fold. 
On the turn Ac doesn’t really change anything for V from my perspective. I think he has 2p+ always here when he x/r flop and continues turn. Turn should just be a give up here. Ego? River… brings back door flush and 4 liner to straight. I hit a middle pair. My thinking was V has 2p or a set. What else can he x/r flop and go bet bet with? He’s not x/r pair and bdfd, I have a 9 and 9 on the board only leaves two straight combos of 97s. He’s not x/r overs and a gut shot straight draw and I don’t think he x/r oesd without diamonds on the flop either. I could reasonably have hit back door flush, straights with 97 or QJ or AAA. 9’s no good, time to go for it. In good ole Phil Laak fashion I wagered all of my betting units for all the glory.
@Dorkupine… haha.
Results… @Dorkupine is in fact the villain in this hand and as he stated
I got looked up! he had Tc6c flop 2p and back doored a flush.
FAKE NEWS!
3 Likes
I play bad! 
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I’d be embarrassed to post some of the hands I’ve played that were full-on face plants into brick walls. When I review them, some made sense and some left me wondering WTF I was thinking. I am convinced we are our own worst enemies at times.
Very strange line to take vs this description. Not really a big fan but I also don’t know your opening range or V’s assumed 3-betting range. Without that info, its hard to do a lot of analysis, other than on a cursory level. With that in mind, you are really only representing 4 possible value combos on the river (Kc7c, KcTc, KcQc and KcJc) vs your missed diamond draws and 1-pair combos that you needed to turn into bluffs. I’d think sets and straights are too thin to jam for value.
Glad to see some creativity but I think this may be a bit too ambitious in the face of 3 streets of aggression from the player type you described.
With reference to my earlier comment about the turn being interesting, I’ve been looking at spots where OOP x/r flop and the turn is a non-flush completing A. Pio is doing a ton of overbetting (1.5-2x) in this spot by OOP to make IR’s Ax hands indifferent. Its an insanely brutal line. I don’t think anyone outside of nosebleed stakes is incorporating it but it looks to be devastatingly effective.
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By my description/read I mean I have gotten him to fold some pretty big hands including straights and at least a flush once. I think where I went off the rails was calling turn(could argue it was on the flop though.) On the river I really think he just has 2p and sets always and with the 4 liner and bdf getting there I’m pretty okay with shoving river as played. He just happened to have imo the only bdf combo he can have after x/r flop. For this reason I disagree that shoving straights is too thin, I’d be okay shoving top set their too if I had AA. V dependent of course. Also I could definitely have QJs 97s and 75s for straights.
No argument here… think this was partially a product of entitlement/ego tilt brought on by a seemingly insane 5 weeks of running absolutely horrible on Replay. No excuses, errrr there’s my excuse 
This is super interesting stuff. Some of the guys in the group who play much higher are doing these kinds of plays and yeah it’s super brutal facing 1.5x with capped range knowing your opponent is capable of overbet shoving rivers too. It’s also a very effective way to get that 1.5 streets of value when IP where you can over bet turn when x to to x/b rivers with hands not quite good enough to go bet bet turn river.
Good stuff as per usually Warlock, thank you sir.
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Knew it! Bet sizing pattern had my name all over it. I’m nothing if not predictable.
I find this interesting, because I feel my biggest leak has actually been paying off big river bets on pots I’ve inflated with sets, 2pr and overpair or even top-top when obvious draws hit. But I also feel my 2nd biggest problem is probably folding too easily to pressure, especially on scare cards. Those seem contradictory but I really think both apply, and what that tells me is that i really don’t think about ranges well enough to understand where i likely stand vs where the opponent likely stands and when those draws are more or less likely, so i end up feeling like i’m guessing more often than not. Some of it depends on who I’m up against. There are definitely some people I believe more than others. I’ve been trying to get better at this with mixed results (up 1bln in feb. Down 200m last night )
I suspect the real root of the problem is probably that I get myself into that type of situation with marginal holdings (or air) too often for my own good by not being disciplined enough earlier in the hand.
I don’t remember this hand, but knowing me, I do think I might have called that bet with just the 2pr. With the preflop raise i’m not going to think you have many str8s (because i often underestimate the breadth of your range i would not count on hands requiring a 7) and by calling the x/r flop i’m going to more heavily put you on busted diamond draws vs. the back door clubs. But in reality, I’m mostly guessing in that spot rather than making a solid read, so who knows.
5 Likes
Yeah I do think both apply. For example I think you probably get too sticky with players who just don’t have enough bluffs or any bluffs at all and who also are implementing more “traditional” bet sizing. I don’t want to mention any names but I’m sure you can figure out the crowd I’m talking about. Now a few of them can read the board well and use scare cards to bluff but they just still don’t balance it enough. I think I’ve personally and I know at least one other that mix up bet sizing, I like to think at least half way decently. I am always looking to threaten stacks. If it’s 100 bb deep in a 3! pot or 400 bb deep in a SRP, I want them to know if I’m in there they should be concerned about playing for all the chips.
Damn, I said you were on a tear but damn. Seriously though, I was talking with bb and we both feel like your play has been noticeably better in recent times. Anyway, I’ve been up for 36 hours now so I feel like I’m rambling, hopefully coherently. Going to grab a bite and crash. 2:30 am is coming early.
2 Likes
You know V’s lines and I don’t. V claimed its possible he’d look you up with a weak 2 pair here on occasion so your reads seem accurate. I don’t show up with 9/7 on this line ever - piles more money is going in to set up stacks on most rivers without a big overbet. 7/5 dd or cc is possible but I still have hard time jamming them (blocking the hands I want V to have). QJ is certainly better as a jam for me if you know V is calling as light as weak 2-pair/sets. I’d be happier jamming straights vs a different position caller as the BB is going to have boatloads more flushes than you will as the IR. To a 2.5x BTN open, in a zero rake environment, he’s going to defend almost every suited combo I’d think. If someone flat called from the SB, I think jamming straights is better.
Thanks for forcing me to think about parts of the game tree I don’t find myself on very often. I lean a lot more towards exploitatively overfolding vs value-heavy player pools and I probably don’t c-bet this flop at any significant frequency, esp. with this particular holding. There are so many turns you can pick up significant equity with and you’re IP. IMO, the hand is too good to start turning into a bluff at this stage and too weak to start betting for value. Its probably dead smack in the middle of my xb range as it can easily withstand a probe bet on most turns.
BB vs BTN open, V may have all the unsuited 9/7 and H has none. Blocking effects aren’t as strong with these ranges. It would be far more influential in an EP vs BB range where BB would not be defending the offsuit combos as frequently.