This hand made me think of @lihiue’s good point that you don’t always have to bet big to bluff effectively!
Here I think Villain doesn’t actually have much incentive to bet Qx, and his 9x or better probably doesn’t play this way at all. So I figure 1/2 pot on the river is actually more polarizing than it looks, and a clickback should be met by a disgruntled fold often enough that we don’t need to go bigger to profit.
Well, you have 3 outs to the nuts on the flop. The 9d might complete some flushes, but basically no boats, so I think it’s fine to continue to bluff. I think you just have to follow through on the river though. There’s some 1 diamond hands - 66, 77, 67, QJ, JT - that might fold if you jam the river, and you don’t beat anything sensible.
So I didn’t boss it nor was I a fool. hrmm. I’ve been playing even worse than I thought.
I’m not sure about that - my instincts about following through on the river could be wrong. One thing is clear though, whatever angle you come at it from, you definitely played the hand better than the villain did. Whether you played the hand perfectly or not, you deserved to win that pot.
Since I’m having an absolutely terrible day, the vast majority of the pots that I win are bluffs. I rarely hit anything and when I do someone has something better (flop 2 pair, lose to flush on river etc).
I’ve lost so much money today. This might be the biggest loss day that my bankroll has taken so far. The week off didn’t help at all it seems. Anyways, here are some bluffs.
55
Here’s an interesting one. Whiffed my low pocket pair real hard but had Villain on a draw. Pretty stupid play by me actually because there’s a huge straight there that matches his storty, but the 2-spade flop never finished so I bet that straight. It worked this time.
AKs
Whiffed super hard yet again. I probably shouldn’t have done this but I was just getting bloody sick of laying down all my beautiful cards and throwing away all my openings. Yes, I guess I’m tilting.
QTs
@southwestmba - I had total air. ; )
I had a busted flush draw and a pair of 3’s. After both of you called on the turn I didn’t give my 3s much value. But if my flush had hit, that bluff would have been painful.
I would not have bluffed a flush river. If you have flush you’re not folding. But an A on the river, you could still fold if you think you are outkicked, say you had A7.
AKs
I don’t know how often I find this turn bluff, but I actually think it’s a strong play. We are behind a decent % of the time after V calls flop, but the Jc could be a scare card for a lot of V’s holdings. Limp-overcalling a preflop 3bet suggests a weak player with an overly wide range, so overbluffing when we miss makes sense.
I like that you used the smaller size here! Minimum effective sizing for bluffs is so important.
55
Limping the button is just not a thing. Stop limping first-in! Why are you still doing this? Stop it! <3
no ace is folding this river to 1/2 pot sizing
If you have flush you’re not folding. But an A on the river, you could still fold if you think you are outkicked, say you had A7.
no ace is folding this river to 1/2 pot sizing
1/2 pot does not rep a straight, nor is there much reason for your opponents to put you on straights as played
I think it would have been better to start bluffing on the turn; when he leads 1bb, @southwestmba is either very weak or trapping a huge hand, and there aren’t many huge hands in his range that make sense to play this way. The player in between will be even weaker.
Raising the turn has the added benefit that you have now built a pot for when you make your flush on the river. Smaller flush draws aren’t likely to fold unless you go really big, so I don’t think we need to worry about getting folds from the hand class we’d most like Villain to continue with.
Bottom line though, when your opponents are screaming “I’m weak!” it’s probably fine to bluff as much as you want, with pretty much any size you want. They won’t protect enough of their strong hands by using the same line for balance, so we get to just exploit them to death.
Got 3 more today.
Busted Draw Bluff
AKo
I got moved to a new table and saw AK in my face. Flopped JQ, needed a T. Heads-up in position. I barrelled so when it busted I continued as bluff. It backfired. Can’t win 'em all. He had 2 of the Ts. If a T rivered I woulda made bank.
Checked Streets Bluff
98o
Overlimp BT, 4-handed. Whiff hard K5A-rb. It checks around. Turn brick duece puts 4 suits on board. It checks to me. I don’t want to bluff yet because it’s a limp pot and any 2 cards here have equity. There is a wheel draw after all. A river pairs the board. I love this card because no one has it. If they didn’t have an A on the flop, they still don’t have one on the river. Sure enough it checks to me. Bluffing 3 Villains is risky, but the real risk here is the HJ. I know him. This is a league tournament and he is a regular that I see almost daily. He’s a decent competent player who is well aware that the BT betting the third checked street is often bluff. I need to bet enough to make the call stations fold but not too much to make HJ smell bluff - or barring that the HJ has air. I choose 60%, a rare size in this league. Somehow it works.
Question: I was actually pretty confident. Should I have been? I wasn’t too worried about getting caught because my stack behind was still healthy.
Another Busted Draw Bluff
AJo
This is a ring game. BT opens for 4.5x. I call from SB, heads-up. Flop 273-rb. I lead and get called. 5 on turn gives me wheel draw and kills flush. I lead and get called. River is K and I bust. I lead standard value. Villain folds.
Question: What do you think Villain had? Given that he opened 4.5x, I think pocket pair or A-brdwy maybe even AJ like me and I pushed off the chop. Probably was calling with the same wheel draw or maybe set mining. When it busted he gave up. What is satisfying about this one is that I did it out-of-position. I’m getting less nervous bluffing out-of-position.
AKo - right idea, wrong sizes.
I read your description first, and thought, sounds like TT should have folded and you just ran into someone on entitlement tilt. You’ve min bet the flop though. Turn size is better, setting up a river jam, but then you go half pot with only 3/4 back when all the draws miss. People are already looking for any excuse to put you on AK, I think with these sizes you may as well have turned your cards over and shown them. Go 1/3-1/2 on the flop and then jam on this brick turn. You want to give yourself a chance of folding out AJ and KQ, and you’ve let worse continue instead.
98o
This one I didn’t read first. My thoughts when it checks to you on the river - I’d like to see a bet of around 350. See that you bet 320, close enough. It’s totally believable you have a K here. Your bluff doesn’t have to work that often, and really, what’s going to call even if they suspect your bluffing? You should be making this play every time.
Your reasoning for the size is ok, but personally I would try and find a hand you can reasonably represent and then figure out what size that hand wants to use. Trying to guess what different sizes will look like to different opponents is just harder to apply universally. 2/3 seems about right for K6, K7, etc. Exploitatively you’ll often want to use bigger or smaller sizes for your bluffs, but I wouldn’t in this spot. I think if you use a small size here you will always get called by 33’s, 44’s, 66’s etc, but they might fold to 2/3’rds. It’s not believable you have a strong enough hand to use a larger size, so I think that gets called light too.
AJo
The lead is good, size is good too. The turn, absolutely keep barreling, but use a bigger size. You have all the sets here, A4o and 64s, a bunch of two pair, and the BTN can have basically none of those. Most of their overpairs would have raised the flop, so their sitting there with 2 overcards almost all the time. I’d be betting at least 3/4 here.
When you go small, I’d be giving up on the K river. The K should be a good card for them, and it looks like you have 7x at best, so the button should be bluff raising here 100% if they didn’t hit the K. I would guess they had AT-AQ.
If you bet big on turn, you’re saying you beat any 1 pair hand, so the K is not scary, and I’d just be all-in. The K being a good card for them actually makes the river jam seem a lot stronger, as long as your opponent is at a certain level.
These are all good bluff spots, and that’s the most important thing. I do think you need to think more about your sizing, but choosing the right spots is way more important than getting the sizes spot on.
Wet Board
98o. I limp from SB for pot odds. Flop is 456 for a gut. I check and it checks around. Turn an 8 for pair (technically top pair, heh) but also now have flush (and straight-flush) draw. I bet half-pot due to multiway and tiny pot (mostly tiny pot). I get 2 calls, 1 fold. River is Tht. I have nothing but the board is just really really uber wet here and since I already led the turn I continue for another half-pot. Everybody lays down.
AJ-ht
Weird one. I came overtop of him and he still bet the river. I came overtop again because of stacks. He folded. I didn’t have air but I hardly had nuts. What was Villain thinking here? Repping KT? T8?
Probably chasing a 4 flush. A lot of this happens here.
When I saw the river I was thinking, his flush probably busted, but you can’t bluff a busted flush. You have to bluff something that’s on the board. Obviously he didn’t have a straight. Furthermore, I came overtop of him on the flop already, although I flat called his turn. He had to have something on that board. Did I actually get him to lay down top pair or 2-pair on a straighty board?
I’d be fairly sure they have Jx, 4x or a small pocket pair (likely in reverse order). The min bet is usually a weak pair that’s just trying to figure out what you have. They’re probably putting you on Qx or diamonds on the flop, but your raise is tiny, and when you just call the min bet on the turn it becomes more likely you have a draw.
I think they expect to be ahead on the river, but don’t want to face a bet.
I really like the way you played it, but not if you were trying to bluff. I think you can actually raise AJ for value against tiny bets, and you picked good sizes for that. If I was bluffing, I would have gone much larger at some point.
Interesting, as most of the raises I see are button click 2x, that’s why I always try to go 3x or 4x when I raise. Nobody else raises 3x. They either button click or they splash way over. Although I am starting to play some higher stakes at 50k these days and I am noticing a difference.
Air Barrel
Led all streets with whiffed A2s. Eventually ended up heads-up on river against a short stack, sensed weakness (no one seemed to like that K) and bet his stack. He gave up. Whew!