Showing Strength or Weakness

Replay Poker Hand Review
1

So I had an interesting hand where I wonder if I would have gotten less money in if I were more aggressive. We can argue about some of my bet sizing, but the point here is the turn play. That’s what I want to talk about the most.

Unfoldable.

Pre ~ TT from CO and I open 5x. HJ calls, heads-up.
Flop ~ Ooh, top set, rainbow. Villain checks. I min bet more as a feeler because I don’t want to accidentally make Villain fold. I probably could have bet 2x. Villain raises to 2x. I raise to 3x again because I don’t want a fold. I should have gone a little bigger but I was hoping for another re-raise. Villain calls.
Turn ~ 5cl brings in a couple of draws but the straight at least isn’t really in range. Villain checks again. If I bet value here (like 1/3rd-pot) I think Villain just might fold. I could bet small but I decided to get sneaky and show weakness. I check it back.
River ~ 97 comes in but it’s not really in range. I have this. Villain min bets. I raise min (again I was hoping for another re-raise). Villain calls with 2-pair and I win.

Yes, I could have bet a little larger on at least 2 of those streets, but that’s not the point of the thread. If I had bet that turn, I don’t think that Villain leads into me on the river. That’s the point. Maybe because they actually had 2-pair this time they would, but would top pair? Would an overpair?

And not specific to this hand, what do you think of sleeping strong on a turn to give Villain confidence? Had much success with it in the past yourself?

2

Here is Villain’s possible range that could have hit the board, if they are a good, thinking villain.

A9 clubs, AT, clubs, AJ clubs, AQ clubs, AK clubs, KQ clubs, smaller sets like 66, 77, JJ to AA.

Also since a straight doesn’t really hit their range, then a straight doesnt likely hit your, the preflop raiser range. And 2 pair doesnt or shouldnt hit anybody’s range.

So that leaves A9 clubs, AT clubs, AJ clubs, AQ clubs, AK clubs, KQ clubs, 66 to AA, for both of you, that clould very easily have SOMETHING decent, ok, semi good, semi great.

This means that you can bet 3 x bb on flop, as they either have overpair, or A9 draw, or AQ, AK air that thinks your full of it, etc, that could call or reraise.

Turn, assuming they either call or reraise or call your minreraise of their reraise of your 3 x bb, on flop, since they could still think your probing, full of it, or that you have something strong, as a polarized range, they still could, semi would call about 4 x bb, 5 x bb, 6 x bb, on turn, because they could still easily put you on A9 of clubs, AT top pair, top kicker, AJ clubs, AQ of clubs, AK of clubs, JJ to AA, that is not likely to have a straight, and that likely is not putting them on a straight, and so because of that can still easily flat call, reevaluate River.

River, assuming its been played the way I’m advocating, etc. If you bet mid to big they will finally probably fold, won’t think your BS with AJ to AK, and wont have a draw to chase anymore, and might think AT top pair top kicker, 99, JJ, QQ, is not good anymore, and fold. So only 3 things to do. Either bet very, very small, or check, hope they will think you might have had AJ to AK air, or clubs, or A9 straight draw, or middle pair, or top pair top kicker, that they can either try to bluff you out or bet 99, JJ, QQ thinking you might call, pay them off thinking they might be ahead, and risk them checking behind to see a showdown. Or could shove all in, as if your busted clubs, or busted A9 straight draw, or busted AK air, etc, trying desperately hard to fold them out, that might look like a bluff to them, that might get them to bluff catch call with AT, 99, JJ, QQ, AK, etc.

Of course the above assumes they are a good, thinking player.

And they did have 2 pair, so you shouldnt be as afraid, scared to death that they are going to fold, as they probably not a nit that would fold, and probably not a semi maniac, hyper over aggressive that would fold, etc.

Remember that either playing too aggressively, or playing too afraid, scared to death that might fold them out, is a great way to win less, almost minimum, and that the middle ground between those 2 extremes, is often the way to go to win more.

3

Yes, and I admitted that my bet sizing was rather funky, and that I didn’t want to discuss that (not because I’m ashamed of it but because it distracts from the more important point that I wish to discuss), and your response is all about bet sizing anyways.

Now I do appreciate the feedback, but out of all of that am I to take it that your answer to my question is, “No no NO! Don’t ever check that turn! Value bet it 100%!!” ?

4

I wouldn’t say Never ever check that turn, or Value bet 100% of the time that turn, but facing the configuration, situation, spot, etc, I probably would value bet the turn about 4,5,6,7 x bb, about 1/3 to 2/5 to 1/2 to 3/5 pot, about 87% time, and expect them to call about 59% to 67% to 75% to 83% of the time, and fold about 5% to 10% to 15% to 23% of the time, and would expect them to have me on A9 off suit, gutshot straight draw, A9 clubs, AT top pair top kicker, AJ clubs, AQ clubs, KQ clubs, 88, 99, JJ, etc, and call me with A9 clubs, AT top pair, top kicker, AJ clubs, AQ clubs, KQ clubs. I would check Turn about 3% to 5% to 7% to 9% of time, in this spot situation.

Pretty Sure a solver would be pretty close to this, but I don’t know, as I haven’t checked a solver, on, about this.

5

lets fix a stuff. Vilain is a fish (profile avatar and giving the BB in cash is not a reg).
Preflop is very good
Flop : Like i always told : why bet small against a fish? You can overbet (not a joke) and he would call with ace high and all the pairs of the board. OK he can fold 30% of this range but you prefer target a stronger range with bigger size. when she raise stop your min raise to the bro reraise, they reraise the same range if you minraise than if you do a big size
Turn : You slowplay against a calling station who would rarely bluff, thats very bad.
River: Same stuff, vilain would have pretty much the same raise range doesnt matter of your sizing.

Your question of “would they lead with TP river when you bet turn” is ok, but she would call your bet turn anyway, and most likely river because she is a CS.
The only reason to check with nuts is to vilain bluff with bad hand. But she raise bro, she dont have air, and would check river with mid hand who cant take value, and bet with good hands who would call your two bets anyway.

6

I don’t believe that this player is that fishy. This player was at the table for some time and was making smarter decisions than most, making normal bet sizing, etc. Have you played against him?

7

no but giving the BB when enter the table is generally a fish (i think there is 0,0001% of reg in replay low stake, me and you anyway, we are only two).

Maybe she is a less bad fish and my stuff is bad, but same reasoning, she never has air who will bluff when she raise the flop, only strong hands which will call the 2 barrels or average hands which will not call but which would not have bluffed anyway because they had showdown value.

My overbet stuff is bad against a at least not to bad player, doing more like 66% or 75% size

8

A nitpick, because I know what you mean, but 2x and 2bb are different things.

97 is a straight on the flop, and they for sure have 97s in range, and likely 97o as well. I doubt they play the nuts that way on the flop, but I wouldn’t rule it out either.

What makes you think villain is going to fold on the turn if you bet? 97 shouldn’t be in your range, and they’re going to have a lot of pair + draw hands that have a lot of outs against your overpairs. Your sizing on the turn should be big, at least 2/3 pot.

There are only two situations where this is a good play IMHO:

  • You’re fairly sure villain has air and is capable of bluffing it on the river
  • Villain likely has a showdown value. In that case you’re more likely to get a second bet called on the river than the turn.

Those either don’t apply all that often, and/or don’t matter that much when they do. You could just decide to never do this and hardly lose anything in practice. Conversely, you can easily lose quite a bit of value when you don’t bet the turns you are supposed to. The tricky part is it’s very rewarding when we do this and do manage to induce a bluff, but it’s very hard to see the value we are losing when it doesn’t pan out.

Right, but they lead for 1bb. You get an extra 2bb out of a very strong hand that would have called far more on the turn. Part of that is due to the funky sizing, but still, how many hands can you find that call a river raise that don’t also call a large turn bet. If they don’t call your raise you’re not gaining anything by having them lead - top pair and overpairs aren’t folding to a bet. You’re just letting them set the price.