Cash game, 6 max, I have no reads, new player on the table. 4k/2k, effective stack BB with 342,0000. Thoughts on this hand.
Wow credit for triple barreling the bluff and the bet sizing made it look like he was going for value but the last bet was a bit odd like he wasn’t sure. He probably should have jammed since you made it clear you weren’t going anywhere but i guess it was an odd enough sizing it got you to just call vice reraise even though you only had one card in the deck to worry about.
The lead on the flop is the problem IMHO. Maybe some people will lead a 3 or low pocket pair, but a small lead with a T doesn’t make any sense. If they’d check raised instead, they might get you to fold your aces to a turn jam.
As played, I can’t see how they get anyone to fold anything on the river. I’m pretty sure they call if you put them all-in. I think you missed some value by not raising, because this is a spot where even their air can call.
I just realized that I was playing against the SB not the BB… and also did not emphasize the Turn line check on the title smh
but yeah it doesn’t make any sense to lead on this board. Threw me off a bit and even more so on the turn.
With that ugly turn, I would had definitely folded to this line.
This turn call is where I’m unsure how I played with the context I provided or lack thereof,
would like to see people thoughts including yours as played.
Definitely credit to him for being able to pull the trigger on the river. Very few players even here in play money are capable of doing that.
I don’t think I would had folded to a Jam on the river just cuz I would had also be ahead a lot of his value hands, he did saved some money by not jamming.
That 1 card in the deck had 18 combos that beat me, if not more. Also was unsure of whether If I was getting call or not on the river.
If you give them every 3 and T someone who shows up with 78o is likely to have, and 78o as their only bluff, you still have the equity to call on the turn - as long as you think they’d do this with all pocket pairs as well.
That’s true even if you give them a tighter range, and they don’t need to find one or two bluff combos in that case for you to actually be ahead.
It really comes down to how many worse pocket pairs they have. I expect someone who donks that flop to have basically all of them, in which case you have to call. I don’t see any value in raising on the turn.
Amazing breakdown, thank you so much man!
It is really weird how even if we remove his bluffs our hand AA still has so much equity on this turn our range too.
Honestly thinking about this breaks my brain lol I can’t conceived how much Equity we have wth. by any chance do you have any explanation to that? yeah we have outs but it is absurd the amount of equity we have that we can comfortably call a turn pot size bet even when villain is value betting with no bluffs…
It’s because there’s 6 combos of all pocket pairs, but only 2 combos of Tx and 3x suited. There are 8 combos of Tx and 3x off-suit hands, which is why you’re not above 50% to win, but even fish are going to have more suited combos than off-suit ones.
It’s not really about outs, it’s more that you’re actually just already ahead of a lot of hands that play this way.
You still probably lose more often than not, but the pot odds mean that’s ok.
Bro I’m not in my right head. This thread is full of mistakes from my part, I think I need to take a small break from poker.
disregard my last comment about having an absurd amount of equity, I plugged in the wrong turn card into a equity calculator (a Ten rather a 3) which gave us an insane amount of equity.
I really appreciate your time and help with this Turn line check, the turn is a good call which I was unsure of but with your help I was able to see it. Have a good night man I’m going off for a bit.
EDIT: surprisingly I was still not that off about that we can still call a pot size bet on the turn, not as comfortably though lol