J4
I knew he had it al the way from the flop, but I had to call. Or maybe I didn’t have to. Why did the board have to run out like that?
You had to continue, but did you consider raise at any point? Obviously on the river it’s pretty suicidal, but if there was ever a hand to bluff, this would be it, so it deserves at least some consideration. On the flop though, you can and should raise your 4x sometimes, especially against the min bet. In any case, I don’t see how you can possibly fold at any point, and hey, you should have picked up some valuable reads on your opponent for the cost of only a few BB. That’s never a reason to call of course, but that doesn’t mean that information isn’t worth something.
lol you knew they had it, but continued to call anyway. I would’ve folded on the flop and look at all chips you would’ve saved. you’re the one telling me what to do. lol please. no Ax is folding to any bet/ raise
Nobody’s perfect. : P
Right, but what about pocket 55’s? Pocket KK’s even? Worse 4x? Double broadway hands? Kx? You would have saved 3bb, but missed out against a bunch of other hands. They’ve limped in, there’s more non Ax hands in range than Ax hands when there’s already 2 on the board.
what are you on about? 4x losses to any Ax hand. only hand scares a AX hand is pocket 4’s. as I said any Ax hands don’t fold. Ax beats pocket kings. Ax beats pocket 5’s. napkin even said they knew they had it and kept calling anyway. since we know that napkin has J,4, that rules out pocket 4’s anyway. so Ax hands have nothing to fear
that’s like saying you know stove is hot, but you touch it anyway. oh yeah stove is hot.
My last post wasn’t talking about raising, I was talking about your suggestion of folding on the flop, and what I’m saying is that you can’t know they have it. I’m not talking about us having 4x, I’m talking about villain having 4x, 55’s, Kx, etc. People play all those hands this way too.
Regarding hero raising, there’s actually plenty of hands Ax has to worry about on the flop - 4’s, A4 and better Ax. Agree Ax never folds on the flop, but that doesn’t mean that raise doesn’t have merit. As villain, are you calling an all-in on the turn with A5? If you don’t think anyone would ever be bluffing with 4x, that’s got to be a losing call right?
napkin said knew they had it. what’s so hard to understand . any Ax hand not folding that flop. A2 call all the way. A,9 is calling all the way. for sure A,K is calling all the way.
I would had fold the J,4 on the flop and saved the 900 chips for a better spot.
Of course if you actually knew they had an ace you’d just fold. But really what we’re talking about here is fearing that they have an ace, not knowing they do, because if it was actually knowing, then napkin would have folded.
The upshot of what you’re saying is that people won’t find bluffs in places where it’s easy to bluff, but will bluff catch in spots where it’s hard to find bluffs. I think there’s actually some truth to that, but only within reason. Is this a spot where that applies? Yeah, probably is against a lot of opponents, but it’s still worth considering all our options. There are some players I can get to fold an ace here.
ran this on poker odds calculator. since I don’t know what the other player had, just used A,K and any J and 4 that’s not on the board. A,K has a 67.45% chance to win. 4,J 32.06% chance to win. 0.48% of a split. we see the flop. AA4. A,K now has 99.90% chance to win. J,4 now has a 0.10% chance to win. 0% of a split. only way J,4 can win is runner runner 4’s. of course we see a J and now J,4 is drawing dead. river card is meaningless A,K 100% win.
that is what napkin said
I was exaggerating. I was like 90% sure they had Ax and I was beat. But I don’t want to overfold a full house on the river. I’ve been shocked by the garbage that people have called my all-ins with many times before and they have given me large profits.
I asked the Wizard in as close of a spot as I could recreate.
It actually likes your opponent min betting on every street. It bets every single hand in their range 100% of the time on the flop.
You do not get to raise 4x on the flop. It actually does raise 43 a tiny bit, and the EV of raise and call for most 4x combos are basically the same, but it looks like they just have too much showdown value, and it prefers to bluff stuff like 53, 52, K3.
The turn is a pure call (with any 4, the J is irrelevant).
On the river it says you should lead every 4x hand for 1bb. I didn’t consider that, but when you think about it, it makes perfect sense. You don’t want pocket pairs to check back, but you can’t really get much more value than that, and you’ll lose the minimum when raised. It’s very hard to imagine the lead induces a bluff from someone who wasn’t going to bluff anyway, so I can’t really see a downside to this line.
I had a feeling there was a better line than just check/calling all the way down, I just went down the wrong path and didn’t find it.
The solver often really likes leading rivers on cards that are better for the caller, which the 4 clearly is, but that’s not something I do anywhere near enough of yet, and often forget to consider.
well , I would’ve folded on flop.
What I find interesting here is that no one is discussing the all-in of 450. Sure, it’s a low bet, and sure a lot of people on this site go all-in on silly things when they are short-stacked. But how silly? Sure, it’s only 450, but what made them go all-in? Pocket pair? Ax?
Hero was BB, so it’s only an additional 150 chips. I would probably have called.
That flop… if this villain has a pocket pair, chances are it’s better pockets than 44, which means they are ahead of hero.
If villain has Ax, they have a set, which beats hero’s 2-pair of AA44.
The problem is the other player who still has chips. You want him to fold, so it’s just you and the all-in guy. He’s just min-betting.
For the flop and turn, he knows he’s only beat with A4 or AJ.
By the flop, he’s only beat by AJ or 44.
Because hero is only checking and then calling the min bet, Villain will know you don’t have it.
The only bet that might have worked would have been a massive bet on the flop, to make him think you had 44. But, since he knows so little can beat him, he’s probably calling anyway.
Before the river, with triple A and the K, he’s not worried. Maybe you have Ax of diamonds, but with the final card being a 4, that scenario is void. The only point he gets worried is when the river comes and he knows 44 is the only hand that will beat him. He min bets, hero calls, villain has small risk.
With min bets, I’m not sure I would have folded. Especially with having a boat.
As soon as it’s more than a min bet, I’d be folding, knowing he has the Ace.
Just my thoughts.
The problem is that it’s easy to analyse a hand after the fact… but in the moment, emotions are going wild, and you only have a limited time to act. I would not have thought of all the possibilities I’ve mentioned here in that short space of time!
I didn’t care about the short stack. I called him because it was such a small stack, small risk and worth it to suck him out and felt him. With no more action all I have to do is hit a J or maybe even a 4 unless he has QQ+. When a short stack is all-in multi you are playing against the bigger stacks, the ones with action on later streets that you can value or bluff or whatnot. If you work up a big side pot and win it, you can still lose the small main pot and come out way ahead. So once the pre-flop was done, I don;t care about him. If he wins, he takes 450 from me, no big whoop.
My mistake here was the min call on the flop. I should have just folded. But I had a 4 and equity against a J so I called. What I should have realized is that if he really has an A here, I have no equity. The only way that I win is if he tries a massive 3-street bluff. And I had him on an A! Then of course I turn 2-pair and river a boat. But my 2-pair against a set loses, and my boat against an A-high boat loses. The flop was a fold. I f’d it up. I wasn’t thinking clearly at all.
If this was a live game I’m sure that I would have folded that flop since I can take 30-60 seconds to think it over. If Replay had a time tank I could have figured it out, but they don’t and I missed it.
Hindsight is always 20/20.
I played a live tournament recently (over 300 players) and was doing fairly well… large stack, over 100 people knocked out. Came back from a scheduled break and I was BB. I got dealt 84o. Usually I would fold. But I was BB and no one raised, so I checked. Flop comes: 7Q4. Checks all round. Turn card is 4. I have a set. I bet, one caller. River is 9.
I bet big, villain goes all-in. For whatever reason, I convinced myself that he only had 2 pair, so I called. He turns over 77… not just a bigger set, but a full house. I’m out. Kicking myself for the entire (2-hour) drive home.
I learned my lesson to think harder about what combinations the other people could have, but I wish I just had common sense earlier. Especially not calling the all-in. I hope I don’t make that kind of mistake again, but in the heat of the moment, anything can happen!