How to NOT get the Money in

Replay Poker Poker Strategy
1

I’d like to start a thread on hands where someone had an opportunity to win big and only won small - monster hands that take small pots, or overbets that induce unwanted folds (if you get a reveal). If you see one, post it here.

Here’s one today.

Nit Leaves it on the Table with Demon Hand.
Background - our hero (the nit) is probably the biggest rock in my book. I play against him all the time and he folds well over 80% of hands, I would guess over 90% of non-blind limps. In this hand, he flops backdoor straight-flush. Now a check on the flop here out of position 4-handed is fine, but once he turns a straight-flush gut (which is also a regular gut AND a flush draw (13 outs), equity up the yin-yang, he needs to bet. He doesn’t have enough streets left, and after a checked flop, chances are decent that the turn will also check around. He checks and … it checks around. The river comes in BIG time for him and finally he bets pot, but it’s too late. One street left and the pot is a micro 4bb. He gets 2 calls and rakes in a whopping (heh) 16bb with his absolute demon straight-flush!

Not only did he fail to get the money in, but a pot bet on the river could have gotten 3 folds on a board like that - a disaster! If he bets even 1/4-pot on that turn, he could double the pot (well, I would have folded), and then only need to half-pot the river, which would get more calls and might even induce a raise or bluff-raise.

Jamming might even be a better play because it looks bluffy on a board like that, and there’s a small chance that you get someone’s stack.

I had air here, but even if I had a set, I’m folding because I know this player is granite. He will not move his chips unless he has it. Don’t know if the other Villains knew this or not. I had him on a flush and just smiled to myself when I saw his clubs, but then I had to go back and double-check. My jaw hit the floor when I saw straight-flush.

This is why you should not be a nit.

Very interested to hear how the experts would have played his hand.

2

Just watched it again and realized that he had a gut draw on the flop as well. He should have bet all three streets.

3

Stop limping first-in from late position! :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:

This is allowed when everyone is shallow, as in the hand where you flopped the set. Here, with everyone still on over 70bb, you should just raise any hand you want to play when it folds to you. The only exception are the super early positions, UTG and UTG+1, where you can limp some smaller pps to set mine. Everything else will perform better as an open-raise than an open-limp.

4

From Villain’s POV here:

Flop - I think check is fine. We don’t have much equity yet and ranges are wide as it’s a limped multi-way pot. Betting into the field here seems optimistic.

Turn - I agree that this is a good time to start bluffing. We have picked up a lot of equity, and the field looks weak: two plus two equals bluff.

Anyone with top pair or better would not want to take a free card off this flop, so our opponents are pretty capped. If anyone happens to have 6x, they’ll let us know by raising our turn bet (and we will call any reasonable size and evaluate rivers). The rest of our opponents’ ranges are going to be a lot of straight and flush draws, maybe some 77/88 type hands, and naked overcards without a flush draw. The first two holdings will call a pretty good size, and the latter will fold to any bet, so I’d start with 3/4 to 1.5x pot on the turn. The pot size is small relative to stack depth (SPR is high), so many players will be inelastic with their draws (they will call agains the pot odds even if we bet full pot, or even against a small overbet, because “full pot” is just not that many chips).

River - I’d go a bit larger, but this might be close to max value. Again, taking advantage of the fact that when SPR is high, absolute size matters more than relative size. Betting less than full pot here would probably be a mistake; anything that still calls will likely call for more (indeed, we got two players to call here on the river).

If he bets even 1/4-pot on that turn, he could double the pot (well, I would have folded), and then only need to half-pot the river, which would get more calls and might even induce a raise or bluff-raise.

Bit of a “yikes” statement there :wink: Avoid the “I have a good hand, so I’ll bet less hoping they call” mentality. This is generally fishy logic. More often, especially when the runout is wet/connected, opponents’ ranges consist of hands that hate any size, and hands that will call a pretty big size. It’s frustrating when we make our hand, bet large, and everyone folds, but we should try to evaluate which size nets the most profit against their whole range, not just try to pick a size that maximizes how often we get called (which may or may not be the same thing).

5

Sure but it’s not the point of the thread. The point of the thread is nit-hero’s play. Come on, man.

6

You don’t want me to point out basic mistakes you’re still making if they’re not the stated topic of the thread? shrug emoji I guess =-P

7

I really like the concept of this thread, but I’m not sure this is a great example.

Firstly, if you don’t think the opponents are going to have boats here, the straight flush is exactly as strong as if they rivered the 7d or 7h to just make the straight. If the opponents can have boats, then the nit doesn’t have anywhere near 13 outs on the turn. They bet pot and got two callers on the only street where betting is mandatory, there’s just not that much to criticize here.

I agree they should bet the turn, but that’s because they only have T high and tons of fold equity - it’s not to get max value if they hit. I’d be betting large, but there’s only 3 river cards I’d be happy about getting all the money in on if called. It’s pretty gross if you bet that turn and get raised too.

I think if you looked through everyone’s Biggest Pots and Best Hands, there’d hardly be any overlap. Don’t get misled by the absolute value of the hand.

1 Like
8

I thought I had another really good candidate this morning but ahh never mind. Obviously I’m just making a fool of myself.

9

You’re so far from “making a fool of” yourself. Trying to be objective and self-critical is what separates winners from losers <3