Hand analysis #5 What just happened?

Replay Poker Poker Strategy
1

I watched a online poker Vlog recently and was reminded, of a situation I find interesting.

Essentially, I get into a NL Holdem ring hand with what I think are decent cards, lets say I limp in late position with A9 suited and there are no raises from the BTN or blinds. Could be suited connectors.

Flop is Q, 9, 4 with one of my suit. All check to me and I take it upon myself to try and thin the field trying to hit overcards by betting 50-60% of the pot with my middle pair and redraws.

I almost succeed and get the big blind as the single caller.

This seems like a sensible move on my part. I am sometimes ahead, have a decent hand against limpers and can often get to showdown by checking behind on scary turns.

Turn pairs the 9. Im naturally pleased and bet again when it checked to me. Villain calls.

River is a Jack which makes straights for K-10 and 10-8. Check to me again. I cannot imagine checking behind so I make another bet which I hope gets called.

Villain check - shoves !!

Assuming I am sensibly banked for this game and villain is not a complete loose cannon and my image is relatively tight / sensible too, am I ever winning?

Best guess for villains holding? Straight, 44s full, AQ / KQ, Q9, the missing 9, bluff?

2

This is a pretty good illustration of why you should never do that.

You have to call here, because big blind has every single 9x in range now - that’s a massive amount combos that might play this way that you beat. Call and lose to the random 94o that would have folded pre if you’d open raised like your supposed to :slight_smile:

1 Like
3

Villain either has T9, 98, 97, J9, Q9, QT, QJ, KT, T8, 2 pair, a set.

can probably semi rule out 9x because you have a 9. So that leaves QT, QJ(KQ would probably raise preflop, and QJ might as well, but QT probably limp in)

KT would probably raise preflop.

That leaves T8.

And probably not Top pair of Queen’s, middle pair top kicker, etc, because would raise those hands to protect from draw, so doubt villain is slowplaying something like that. So that means its more likely villain either calling on pair of 9’s that becomes trips, which not likely because of what I said earlier, or they calling on draw, and they got there, which means they probably have T8.

You said villain is not a complete loose cannon, does that mean they are tight, semi tight, semi moderate, passive, semi aggressive, etc?

Tight Passive NIT, FOLD.

Semi tight to semi moderate semi passive: FOLD

Exception, if they overvalue hands a lot.

Also what stakes? what stack sizes?

If semi bigger stack sizes, an or at higher stakes, they can bluff more.

At lower stakes, semi smaller stack sizes, they will under bluff.

Exception to that is if they have gigantic stack.

But in General be more willing to sometimes bluff catch call more against semi bigger stacks, and at higher stake levels

And be willing to overfold more, when semi smaller stacks at the lower stakes levels in general.

Take all those things combined together in consideration in deciding what to do, and actually do whatever according to these things, etc.

Without more info on villain, more info on, about stack sizes, stake levels, etc, that’s the best anybody can do, as not going to do better unless get lucky and happen to pick the exact hand, etc.

If someone put a gun to my head and told me to pick a hand, and decide to fold or call, I’d say its T8, and a fold for the reasons explained above.

Hope that helps.

4

Also as said above, that’s why you raise A9 3.5 x to 4x to 4.5 x to 5 x to 5.5 x to 6 x to 6.5 x depending on how many limpers there are. T8, 94 that beat you postflop, probably does not call you preflop, and even if they do, your in better position to semi bluff CBET drive them out postflop, and avoid such a harder river decision, making wrong decision, either losing getting bluffed out, or calling and losing to the straight, etc, on river, etc.

5

Big blind gets to check their option, so can have any two cards. That’s 44 combos of 9x, not just the ones you’d expect in a raised pot.

That’s the real problem with not raising pre. Generally we want 94, T8 to be in there, but now we’re in a huge pot against an extremely wide range. It’s just far to easy to overlook something and give way to little/much weight to certain combos and mess this spot up.

1 Like
6

Agree with @lihiue that the biggest mistake was likely preflop. Not to be too pedantic, but the fact that this hand history doesn’t even start with position/stacks/# of limpers kinda suggests that not taking those elements seriously enough might be a leak you wanna address.

As played, betting this river is also a pretty big mistake IMO. What are you getting value from? This seems like a classic sigh-check-back spot where a bet is much more likely to make us puke than it is to win us more money.

1 Like
7

Honestly I find myself in this exact spot far too often. Every time, I tell myself that I’ll raise pre next time. And then I end up here again.

The chips we lose by perhaps having a bit too wide of an opening/3betting range preflop are pennies on the dollar to the chips we lose by failing to force out the blinds and ending up in no man’s land post flop. If you want to play, just raise. If you don’t feel comfortable raising, just fold.

When I keep that simple mantra in mind, my results are usually a lot better. I wish I had the discipline to stick to it all the time. Alas, the seductress of the overlimp sings to us all…

1 Like
8

Totally agree, I forgot, spaced making that point about not betting the river as played, or if going to bet, then make it a razor thin min value, semi block multi purpose merge bet. glad you made the point about not betting river in that situation, and checking back, and seeing a cheap showdown to maybe semi probably realize showdown value.

9

I actually prefer checking the turn. Or at least I would if we’d raised pre. Middle card pairing heavily favors the big blind, and we can call/raise/fold the river depending on sizing, or confidently value bet if checked to.
You can’t really block bet the river in position - well you can, but it’s a bad idea against anyone decent.

1 Like
10

I’m not saying its a good idea and to do it. Its a bad idea, and shouldnt do it, but if going to bet the river, as played, then make it a razor thin VALUE extraction MIN MIN VALUE, SEMI QUASI blockish MULTI PURPOSE COMBO MERGE bet, as thats better then what hero did, IF IF going to bet the river, which should NOT do.

11

To be fair, @Chasetheriver didn’t even specify sizing on the river, I think. But safe to assume it was something like 50-70% from the way he was talking about it, I’d guess.

QJ could pay us sometimes if we use the larger size. A nonbelieving QK perhaps, but now we’re really getting optimistic.

12

That crossed my mind too, but I think our judgement is a bit colored here by the raise, which hasn’t happened at this point in the hand. Big blind can get here with any Q or any 9. T8 should be folding the turn at least some of the time, KT too most likely. Boats might have raised earlier. I think this is actually a mandatory bet having thought about it a bit more, and I actually prefer overbet, hoping for a worse 9 (there’s a ton of those), or an unbelieving Q.

I really don’t like small bet. I think anything that calls that we beat calls a much larger bet, and anything that beats us always raises. Plenty of hands that we beat also get to raise against a small size too though, and we might induce a bluff. I’d equate betting small on the river to just limping in pre - it puts us in a position where ranges are wide and we have little clarity.

1 Like
13

I have given this hand quite a lot of thought. Its a situation I have the same experience of as Younguru.

“Ouch, That happened again”, but I dont seem to learn or recognize the red flags :frowning: .

I admit the description could have been more detailed, but I think bet sizes could be whatever is standard for hero.

The most interesting thing about the hand (for me) is thinking about how often do we see a player check three times with super strong holdings? Throwing in a river check raise when an obvious draw hits is much more common than doing so on a river which we can discount as unlikely to be significant.
Perhaps against a known aggro opponent, it is more common, but against a run of the mill reg?

Without knowing the outcome, I would expect the Big Blind to be either very strong, or completely bluffing, and rarely in between with non full house 9s or unrepresented Qs.

Just my 2 cents.

1 Like
14

I agree the c/r is polarizing. I absolutely hate the spot as played. Feels like fumbling for a light switch in the dark!

1 Like
15

Agreed about big blind being strong, but don’t think that means boats only. From the big blinds perspective, I think you can have all the QJ and QT combos. Sometimes you’ll have Q9 or pocket 4’s, but if I’m holding a 9, there just aren’t that many full houses you can have. I wouldn’t expect you to double barrel with KT or T8. I think it’s far more likely you would have limped 98, 97, 96 than A9, or K9, so T9 is a mandatory raise, and I don’t think it’s crazy with any 9x hand.
Disagree about big blind bluffing. What bluffs do that have here? JT is the obvious candidate, but that makes a pair on the river, so not many player are going to check raise bluff that hand. If they were going to running a complete airball bluff, I’d expect the check raise on the turn.

1 Like
16

In the right spots against the right opponents, about .5% of 1% of time, I have flat called floated with hand like A8 suited all the way to the river, IF THE BETS WERE SMALL ENOUGH, and then check raised bluffed the river, and did all that because I knew I could, that it would likely work, but yeah most players cant, never ever, wont do that.

But then again I wouldnt be in a spot like this because if had a hand like A8, on bb, I would raise to take the SB limp in or set up postflop. And hero is betting postflop too big for villain to do something like that, and because of that neither would I.

It would take a BIG fish donk to check a hand like A8 on bb, and then float call bigger raises to river and then check raise river on a A high airball bluff.

17

They likely had j9. They check the option pre because, why not. Flop they have middle pair and are oop and check call. Turn trips, they check to allow what ever you have to preferably continue and they continue passive play and call. River fh and they, the passive player do not suddenly want to show up and push your bluffs or your non straights to not continue. You bet and they shove and hope for a call. Not my line but that it what it smells like.

2 Likes
18

I agree with @Pos111. Maybe it’s just shellshock talking, but it feels like every time I try to give my Replay opponents credit for actually having all the hands theory says they could have, they just show me the nuts (or some variant thereof) and laugh.