Who needs poker math?

Replay Poker Poker Discussion
1

You do! We all do.

Poker should be fun and relaxing way to spend your time. That is what you tell yourself when you put off learning the math side of it.
Who needs a headache when you can just wing it?

That is probably why so many of the new customers that come to poker/casino sites head over to the casino side of things (or so I’ve been told).
They rather leave it to “luck” and in exchange get their rush of excitement.
But as you probably know - those games will eventually bleed you dry.

Sometimes you can even see an offering that seems too good to be true, and it usually is.

The Bling Bling

I stumbled upon a casino game at one poker site. At first it sounded dreamy with only 12% chance of losing.

The game had 25 tiles (5x5 grid) on a table. 22 of the tiles were winners, and 3 of them made you go bust.

Guess even one tile correct and your ROI goes to 10% and you can cash it out right away.
Or, pick three winning ones in a row and your ROI jumps to 15%, and so on, and so on…

The greedier you get the less chances of winning you’ll have.

If you pick only one tile your chance of getting it right is 88%. Sounds easy, eh?
Pick three in a row and you still have close to 67% chance of winning.

But if you really start to think of grinding this further as a simple way of making money - Do the Math First.

Let’s say you pay 10 cents per game and you are okay with only 10% ROI.

100 games would cost you 10 dollars. On average you would win 88 of those games and receive only 88 x 11 cents = $9,68.
You lose money in the long run.

Getting three tiles in a row will give you 15% ROI but your chances drop to just under 67%.
This means that on average you will win 2 out of 3 games which still doesn’t make you a winning player. You simply break even at best.

So what’s the morals of this story?

If you want to make money in gambling you should at least play games where your skills can give you an edge over weaker players, because you can never beat the house.

But first you need to acquire those skills.

If poker is your game learning the math (which is more simple than you think) will give you an edge over weaker players in the long run. Avoid math and you might make decisions that look good but eventually you’ll end up loosing to someone who had the tenacity to do their homework.

The choice is yours!

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If you’re gambling, you’re bound to lose… That’s why casinos are so successful. The rake is there for a reason!!! Now, if you’re playing a game of skill like poker and you’re not gambling on your hand, you will win in the long run.

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Your partially right that need to learn some, a little basic math for poker.

Things like counting outs and figuring out basic chances to win and pot odds.

Where math is not needed or not needed as much, is in getting close enough to EXACT percentages to win.

Example. A flush draw is about 33.5% to win in general on flop. However that 33.5% number is not needed to be known or figured out via exact math. There are close enough short cuts. Example. A 2 of 1 suit possible draw on flop, if someone has that draw, say the flop is 2 spades, and hero has AK of spades flush draw. First count outs(basic math). There is 3 Ace outs + 3 K outs + 9 possible spade outs. That’s 15 possible outs. The short cut is 2 times the outs times number of streets to come. 2 times 15 is 30 times 2 streets is 60. So using the short cut says there is about a 60% chance that either a flush or a Top pair top kicker pair of Aces, K kicker, or pair of K’s, Ace kicker, will hit by, on river. The real chance is about 50% to 55%, but 60% is pretty close, close enough in order to figure out if pot odds are good enough and to figure out what action to take, etc.

The short cuts are good enough, close enough. So don’t need the exact math, etc.

The other example(s) is pot odds. If the pot is 300, and a player bets 100, and you have to call 100 to win a 400 pot, that is 4 to 1 pot odds. That is easy basic math, easy to see, figure out.

But what if the Pot is 4862, and a player bet 1369. What’s the pot odds then to call off the top of head with only 35 seconds to figure out, act, etc? Doing exact math, unless a human calculator, that can do math fast in head, would be a lot harder.

Fortunately can do another short cut. 4862 is close enough to 5000, etc. 1369 is close enough to 1500. 1500 is close enough to being about 1/3 of 5000. If you call 1369, that’s close enough to 1500. 5000 +1500 is about 6500 pot. So you have to call about 1500 to win about 6500, which 1500 is about 1/4 of 6500, and flip 1/4 to 4/1, and short cut complete, that getting about 4 to 1 pot odds to call 1369 to get 4862+ 1369.

Its not exact. But its close enough and will help make good enough decisions based on that to win in the long term, if continue to use those short cuts and make good decisions based on those short cuts.

The other thing that can do is memorize either exact or close enough percentages, instead of using math. Example. I have memorized that its 33.5% for flushes to hit going from flop to river.
Open ended straight draw is about 25.5% to hit going from flop to river. Gutshot inside straight draw is about 12.7% to hit going from flop to river. Going from turn to river cuts those percentages in half.

So since I both know the short cuts, and have the percents memorized at least ultimately extremely close enough, then most to almost all the time, I usually don’t need to do the math.

That said, if I do need to do the math, I can do so, then memorize it, or find, figure out a short cut that gets me close enough, after I do the math, so that I dont have to do the math, because sometimes I don’t have the time, ability to do the math in the heat of the poker moment.

There is a semi minimum of basic counting, basic math, even if its just a extremely little tiny bit of math, that is semi needed to play poker as good as one can play poker.

That said, dont need to do a lot of math, and dont need to be a rocket scientist, and don’t need to know algebra, trigonometry, geometry, calculus, etc, in order to play awesome poker.

Just consistently get close enough by either math, shortcuts, estimating, rounding, eyeballing, winging, etc, as long as its truly, factually, consistently close enough.

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Man, I used to avoid poker math, but this really makes sense. If you wanna win long-term, you gotta put in the work. No more just winging it for me!

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I’ve been diagnosed with dyscalculia. Numbers are meaningless to me yet. I play decent poker.

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Hello my friend!

I think u are right, without learning the basic math u will not gain an adventure over the the general player pool. You probably don’t need the very deep and inside mathematics to beat the lowest levels but as soon as you move up more and math skills are required. Implied odds etc

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I agree that most of the casino games are a losing proposition…the money they earn is what built places like Las Vegas. I have always liked poker because I am playing against other players and not against the house. The rake can be high, but I think I have a better chance of making money. I also agree that knowing some math in poker is necessary. You need to understand odds, equity, stack to pot ratio, etc. Thanks for the reminder!

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Agree-casinos NEVER go broke–bad poker players do though:)

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I used to really care about the poker math. Back when I took poker seriously, I’d spend hours running hand histories, calculating pot odds, equity percentages, and all that. Every decision had a formula behind it—EV this, implied odds that. It felt good chasing that edge, knowing I was putting in the work most wouldn’t.

But somewhere along the way, poker stopped being a grind for profit and started being… well, just a game again. Life got busier, priorities shifted, and I realized I didn’t need to squeeze every ounce of expected value from the felt. Sometimes, it’s nice just to play for the love of the game, you know?

These days, I play for the fun and just enjoying the moment. If I get outplayed because I didn’t run the math? Eh, so be it. The stakes are low, the vibes are good, and I’m not here to turn poker into homework.

Don’t get me wrong—if you’re in it to win it, the math absolutely matters. But for me now? Poker’s my way to relax.

“You can’t lose what you don’t put in the middle. But you can’t win much either.” Sometimes, though, the win is just having a good time.

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I suck with the English language ( i guess u all noticed lol ) but been great with numbers since a child and it has helped in my poker and life…I still remember my mom telling me " thank God your great with numbers or i know you be living under a bridge one day" and my mom was very smart:).

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This hand is bonkers! What does it have to do with poker math? There is no math here since everyone is betting and raising 2x. This hand is about ranging and with Hero’s wimpy 2x 3-bet of a 2x open pre, that flop has too many sets and 2-pair for Villain’s range and we get the hell out on the check-raise flop.

The bet sizing is inconsistent. Villain opens 2x pre and Hero 3-bets 2x with the BT still behind (and blinds for that matter). Too small. Then on flop, (we assume heads-up, you don’t specify) and we assume that Villain checked (again, you don’t specify), we suddenly bet 2/3rd pot? (yet again, you don’t specify pot size but I do the MATH at 1900 and 12 into 19 is 2/3rds). This thread is about math. Where is your math?

So then Villain check-raises us 2x (of 2/3rds pot) whoa! We lay down here.

Now, if we had 3-bet 3x or 4x pre, we knock stuff like 65 and 44, maybe even 77 out of his range. Remember we’re only 50bb deep (more math you have neglected) playable but need to take care with large pots. Also, if we bet a more reasonable 1/3rd pot, we get pot control and better info. If he check-raises 2x with his narrower range (due to our larger 3-bet pre) we can easily flat and see the turn. We’re not quite pot committed yet (more neglected math).

Turn is pretty bricky-ish. It brings in a couple of backdoors (clubs, wheel). If Villain is chasing a backdoor here he’s worse than we thought. We assume Villain checks (again, you don’t mention - we DO have position, hello?). We can continue this, but I think at this point it’s a free check back since we don’t think he’s drawing unless he has AKcl or something (two broadways clubs say) by accident. He has hit the board with 88? A8? Or has high pocket pair? Let’s see, going by YOUR math the pot is 6700 and our stack should be 6800. We’re losing our playability here and we have to be willing to stack off. I’d also feel a lot better if one of our Ks was a club to not only block but also take several combos out of his high club range (more math neglected). I think if I block here I can shove, but if not I check back and we don’t so I check back.

So then, as played, we shove and then Villain reveals a set. Do you mean that he folds? He would fold a set here before the draws come in?? Seriously?? Or you say that our KK held up, which means we win at showdown? But you don’t tell us the river card. It must have been a K. If we win this at showdown it is not through optimal play, it’s through buttluck.

I’m not an optimal expert but nothing in this example sounds optimal to me at all. What am I missing?

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All I read was the first sentence of your rant and “MY” whole point is “I” don’t use math in Poker. I have dyscalculia……you don’t need it. Lmao!!!’ You just need a pair of balls!

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Clearly, you are no GTO expert that is for sure. At this point, you’re just a napkin holder lol.

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The fact that this is AI generated nonsense?

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I’m a girl. You win. (eyeroll)

Umm, I had KK. : P

So did we buttfluke river a K or did Villain lay down top set on the turn when he is only behind 65? Tell me how we won by optimal?

Really. I wanna hear this. Like all serious 'n stuff. Let’s go.

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Neither, we won because HJ called but was obviously cheating :slight_smile:

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At the micros or nano stakes , especially nano stakes and freerolls , this math won’t do much good . They play recklessly crazy poker , they play with rng and many other things . But generally , and especially at live games you are right , on the long run you need the math in order to be eventually a winner

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here at Replay, all the science and gto bull means nothing…just play your hand as you see it, one by one, nothing else matters , not the science or anything… play good cards, eventually you’ll be ahead, really all that’s to it, this game is at LeaST 50% LUCK, HAVE FUN ALL

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You play long enough you actually know hands and math is not needed–Like if u have a pocket pair you know you have about a 12.5% chance of flopping a set (about one in eight)…

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Oh, math is still needed. You have just absorbed the information well enough to use it as it is.
Just like you know that 3 x 3 = 9. You don’t have to think it anymore, but at some point in your childhood you still had to learn it.