Book on Villain is he is LaG/maniac. He has showed up this week in many of my games and he’s shovey and bets large. He bluffs a ton. I know this because he bets checked streets and scare cards big. He plays probably 75% of all hands.
Pre-flop ~ I was on the BB and was able to check it closed with 63o. If not for the free check I would have folded (obviously).
Flop ~ Wow, I suddenly have a ton of equity. I check it because I know that Maniac will make the pot big and I have a weak made on a wet af board. If he wasn’t in the hand I would have led. Then something amazing happens - Maniac bets thin! This is not a bluff. He just told me the strength of his hand. I have him on a made flush at this point but I have straight flush equity so I call thin.
Turn ~ I hit 2 pair. Still not enough to beat maniac (and obviously I’m not bluffing him off of a made monster) but again, he bets it thin so it’s an easy call.
River ~ I know that Maniac will bomb this final street (it’s his last chance to get money in) so I’m ready to fold but the 3sp gives me a boat! I suppose that he still could have straight flush but I kinda block it. Oh wow, now it’s check-jam time! I check and perfectly to plan Maniac bombs, almost putting me all-in. I shove the extra couple of chips. He calls, then reveals 42 for a straight on the flop (I had him on flush but close enough).
Best feeling in poker ~ showing Maniac the bad news. : )
Lesson here: When Maniac bets thin, it is VALUE - strong made VALUE! He is so unbalanced that his value bet range is tiny. This is a direct email to you telling his strength. So when Maniac bets thin, he’s got a monster, guaranteed.
“Thin” refers to how close we are to the bottom of our value range. Betting on 2h 3h 5h 6s 3s with 33 is “thick” value; we have quads, we are at the top of our range. Betting the same board with 77 is “thin” value; we just have 2pair when there are straights and flushes available. We are at the bottom of our range.
I think you mean to be talking about bet sizes here though, right? You seem to mean “Villain bets small”
Anyway you seem to conclude that Villain is strong because he minbet the flop? You put him on a flush and say “This is not a bluff. He just told me the strength of his hand.”
I think that’s incorrect.
First, we eventually see that he didn’t have a flush; in fact he flopped bottom pair with a gutshot, a very weak and speculative hand (you say he had “42 for a straight on the flop” but I assume you mean “42 for a straight on the turn”).
Second, why would a strong hand bet small here? The board is very wet; players should mostly either be very cautious (folding to most bets) or very pleased with their hand (calling most bets). If you have the Ah or Kh here, you’re calling 1/2-2/3 pot. A hand like Hero’s, with a straight and a flush draw, is calling 1/2-2/3 pot. There’s no incentive for a made flush or straight to bet super tiny on this flop. So “he bet small, I put him on a strong hand” doesn’t track for me.
Anyway, the hand played itself the rest of the way and your actions make sense on every street. I just wanted to point out that I think your analysis of villain’s range is pretty backwards, and does not make sense. It didn’t matter here, but it will matter in other spots. For instance, if you had a hand that is incentivized to bluff flop, but you didn’t because you thought Villain was strong in this line, that would be a major blunder. You would have just let him see the turn for cheap and lost all your equity.
Because he’s a maniac. He never bets small. He never plays slow. I was playing against this guy for a few days. Why would he bet small? Because this is the one time that he absolutely DOESN’T want any folds.
That’s one reason he might bet small. He also might bet small on the flop because he wants to see a cheap turn. That turned out to be the case here. Your theory that “small means thick value” was not correct.
I agree in real money the bro who min bet are very, very oten, very weak. But in replay some dont even know that they can change the sizing i think they bet only with goods value hands really. Depend of the guy but in majority thats this case since i play in this site