RPP algorithm from someone who knows what he's talking about

Replay Poker Poker Discussion
144

(in this case, not a casino bad beat)
BadBT= any hand that when leading after the flop and/or turn… loses, when the river gives another player a better hand ( thats still in hand also ) … only hands that go to showdown & was shown, or lets face it … the person “witch’n” did have it till the river… roflmao…

Just so you know also, my solution to this years ago, was the following…
Previous hand deck with input from players( ie- dead pile ), starting point for next hand, before shuffling 3-6 times
Card piles for Rifle, where +/- 3 of perfect 26/26
RND ( coin toss ) for which side started rifle
1,2 or 3 side-side as you rifle, meaning # of cards from 1 side till go to other
any xtra cards if 1 side is out, go on top
RND 11-23, off the top as a cut, after all rifles…

I proved to myself that you never want a perfect split/rifle because a human can’t, so it shouldn’t either… but yet I also noticed it was possible to “over shuffle” so thats in there too…

If no solution is perfect, this 1 @least at every stage, tries to add more randomness, even tho thats kinda not possible and kinda is… As you said you need more shuffles than with a MT, if using a rifle, yet there was alot of thought into that system… and as to which method would be used to shuffle.

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145

I thought about this one for a while, but the math is NASTY. I will continue to think about this and I will let you know if I come up with anything, but so far the only way I can figure out to test this is if I see everyone’s hand (and even then it’s a lot of work). The complex interplay between various different hands makes this really, really, hard to mess with unless some variables are isolated.

If you want to say something much more specific, like “bad beat means an overpair is beaten by a guy who pairs his overcard on the river” then the math gets more tractable (but you would also have to play for a really long time to get a decent sample size).

BTW: some humans can indeed do a perfect split and riffle.

146

I’ll take your word on that, lol, winks, … even if you can’t do the math, just watch… not just flushes, or straights… anything where the leader after the turn, loses the hand on the river.
… No replay is not rigg’d in my opinion …

I play’d the BB 500 B&R alot, and there you might see 2+ ppl go to showdown, every hand for 30 minutes… that might be a good MTT for you to gather data in, its a bingofest…

But yeah, Spivak … I’m just saying boolian ( true false ), does the leader after the turn, lose on the river… just that niche slice of the stats.

147

Greetings Ms C,
My apologies Maya, I really can’t remember how I got myself confused about your name or some of my misspellings… ( and I watched Soul Train in my 20’s & 30’s… ) I assure you it was accidental…

You’re also right about conducting any open classes here in general. Most of my poker correspondences now are through messaging.

Every once in a while I’ll read something here and feel it’s sincere, genuine, or even heartfelt. It always pulls at something inside. Let me ask you Ms.C, even if this is a stranger, Would you throw an extra life jacket to someone trying to stay afloat and not drown, theoretically that is. You may not have noticed, I don’t debate or discuss poker or eclipses with some of the overly opinionated, theorists. So some of players who’ve come to a crossroad and then have figured out an important piece in the bigger picture. I can’t help myself but be happy for them. I reach out to them and let them know, colorfully perhaps, what an important milestone they’ve reached. A lot of the time, I’m the only one reaching out to them. Kinda reminds me of the old TV show “The Adams Family.”

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This is how it can looks sometimes when someone offers a contrarian view, or god forbid, a greenhorn having some fun with free chips…So, as futile as it can seem sometimes in the forum, I’m always keeping an eye out for an open mind that’s a little more interested and thirsty than the masses in our poker civilization…

Man ! ! ! Shouldn’t try and sell some of these posts for a
movie scripts ? ? ? ?
I gotta start thinking about who I want to play me…
Based on what others know about me at this point.
I’m sure it would be fun for everyone to take a shot
at picking who should play your Rail-Bird…
In a major motion picture film… :sunglasses:

Note & WARNING ! ! !:
I should be able to harvest some wonderfully deep,
psychological information about all the players, just by who
they pick to play me.that I’ll be able to use instantly on
the tables along with all your poker tells…
You can’t even hide a good bluff from me ever
Not afraid Replay poker land player, bring it on…
Just how many talented, handsome actors can
there be out there anyways ? ? ?
It’s OK though, Don’t go on tilt and panic over this here,
I will accept duplicate suggestions graciously…
1.
2.
3…

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148

Rail-Bird might have been talking to the old hedgehog, yours truly, as Mr. C. Seems I may have stumbled onto a private debate and not a forum topic.

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149

This topic is for everyone, Cairn…

Some can do far more, did you see the “blind card mechanic” that was on Penn&Teller Fool Us, a couple weeks ago ??? ohh he fool’d them alright… insane…

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150

I was just thinking that as I read @Rail-Bird post above. Was that a personal post ?

151

Greeting Ms C,
I certainly appreciate the genuine feelings and emotions you have about what’s right is right… You’re right ! ! !
I just don’t quite understand the knee jerk reaction and offense by some players to the conversation I was having with Mr.S. After rereading my posts a few times, I don’t know that there’s anything erroneous or directed to or at anyone. It certainly was not my intentions. It also sounded to me like there was a little bit of hope in my message… I find myself dismayed at all this negative hype about, and around the computer generated shufflers. It’s 100% baseless and without any merit. As you said, everyone has a right to question things. Yes you absolutely do Ms,C…
Then when the handful of the “it’s all rigged” Anarchist just like the story of eclipses. Nearly all the questions have this veiled accusatory undertone to them. then some are in your face outrageous with their statements That’s not trying to find or get to any answers. That causes harm to a young growing business and the livelihood without reason… This is a real business run by real people like the rest of us. They have employees / real people who depend on their jobs to support their families like the rest of us. Let alone all the future jobs that could eventually be lost because of this kind of out of thin air conjecture. Sometimes I think people get so wound up in themselves and what’s going on in their personal lives… Then,with all the stress of everyday life, sometimes everyday survival it seems. We can get to where it doesn’t take much for us to strike out at someone or something. And almost always it’s without virtually any perceived thought it was about to happen…They’re really is a ripple effect in our lives folks, ask any older person they may be able to tell you of several they remember… I worked in those pressure cooker casino’s for years in the old days. I seen whole dice crews ( 4 dealers) get fired on the spot after the table dumped 20 or 30 grand. Can you imagine that kind of real life superstition from a casino manager that manages maybe a few hundred employees. Then the vast majority of casinos following suit with similar superstitions and industry culture. That can affect a person mind’s emotional well being to be under that kind of pressure in real life constantly…Certainly wasn’t conducive to a career man with a family You either get drunk or you got drunk already…
. .
My conversation with Mr.S was meant to be read by all who would care to. Especially the new players who may not have as much exposure or experience to poker or gambling as some or most have here. Those are the ones I’m most excited for and about. So when some of the regular hobgoblins start swarming in on an unsuspecting newbie. Well, I really can’t explain it. Been like this as long as I can remember. I can not turn my back on someone who’s searching for answers or needs help, especially if a few of the others are doing the complete opposite … Chances are I’m not going to start changing at this late stage of my gun lap of life… In fact, I don’t ever wanna change… So yes ! I can be a pain sometimes, but I will never ever turn my back on you if I can assist or answer questions, you’ll be getting all 42 years of me, and well over a half million spent on my education throughout my career.( not my money of course , the casino’s ! ! ! )
Rail-Bird :sunglasses:

152

I understand exactly what you mean, but it is a mess. Here are two ways I can try to do inference, and why both are unworkable:

Method 1: Observe each showdown and calculate the odds of a bad beat hapening in it. Each hand is a bernouli (boolean outcome) random variable, but the probability of each success is different. Note that this has to be done whether the showdown had a bad beat or not, because a sample of only positives does not help you infer anything. This means I have to count the possible pre-showdown outs of every hand (a lot of work, but doable). But here’s the thing, imagine the following scenario:

Two players in the pot. Player 1 bets preflop and gets called. Runout is
AH TH AS KD 5C. Player 1 does all the betting and player 2 calls him all the way through, but folds on the river. For a lot of RPP players, this could easily mean player 2 was on a draw that didn’t hit and Player 1 could have had trip aces or something, meaning that if player 2 had hit his draw on the river it would have been a bad beat. Therefore I have to consider this hand in my calculations as a non bad beat, but uh . . . how likely was it that this bad beat would happen? How many outs did player 2 have?

An additional, different problem (that maybe we can ignore without messing it up too badly) is what if the river was 5H instead of 5C, and player 2 raises player 1 all in. Player 1 then folds. Was this a bad beat? What if player 2 was bluffing?

Method 2: Calculate the theoretical odds of any bad beat hapening in general. This means I have to calculate the odds of a flush draw beating trips, a flush draw beating two pair, a low pair beating out a higher pair by hitting trips or second pair, a two pair filling up vs a straight . . . etc. Every possible combination. But not only that, I have to multiply each of those odds by the odds of having those hands squaring off to begin with, and then add them all up.

Now if someone could just give me the odds of a bad beat straight up then this test is pretty easy, but that calculation is disgusting.

Maybe there is some clever shortcut or trick that I haven’t thought of yet, like some symmetry argument about what happens if the river card actually came earlier instead of at the end or something and use the number of orders the board can land in (5!=120). I haven’t thought of any trick like that which actually works though.

Hopefully this helps to explain why the math is so gross here.

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153

I believe that first, you have to define a “bad beat”. Just because the top hand after the turn gets beat on the flop, in my opinion does not constitute a bad beat. Consider this scenario; Player A is dealt pocket aces. Player B has 7-2 offsuit. Player A goes all in preflop and player B calls. All others fold. Flop is 9-7. Player B is in the lead with 7’s. Player A ends up winning hand with 3 Aces on the River. Do we consider this a bad beat? I don’t.

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154

Perception is reality
Most people with strongly held opinions will not change their opinion no matter how many facts to the contrary you present them

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155

Spivak, you overthought this… pick a piece of paper, with 2… yes, 2 columns… when and if 2 ppl go to showdown, and if you can see it happen( both or more show cards) or thru chat, you know it happened… put a mark in 1 of the two columns… its like flipp’n a coin, you don’t worry about the wind, or the setting of the sun, or the hight @ which you flip it to… no… Just the outcome… Or, I guess… only record times when you are leading, and in the hand after the turn, and either it held up on the river or you got outdrawn on the river …

Spivak, I don’t care if it takes 100 hands, to get 15 viable results… but I’ve seen it happen 5+ hands in a row… do you see what data I’m look’n for/at ??? Since in online poker, sometimes its impossible to get ppl to fold when they should, ppl draw out on other ppl more frequently than say a cash live game… Some say, well its free poker, or its for micro stakes, whatever doesn’t really matter… so thats why I’m telling you to look for a specific senario, then the outcome of said senario… nothing more, nothing less…

@SSeville,

Seville,
Seriously, you didn’t see my define it ?.. only for the sake of this discussion, and with the correct disclaimer… I don’t care if you call it a WetWillie, I did define it vary narrowly.

Greetings Mr.RailBird & ect ect ect,
I find your last few posts to be off topic and disruptive to the logical flow of this thread, as a player rep please @least try and stay on topic, or create your own thread.

Spivak,
I guess where I was going with this was the fact that 1 of the other major complaints around here is the so called “replay river”, so thats why I narrowly was targeting just that, in a very specific way… most ppl witch about a flush, but most times its on the river… so no worrying about how someone was beat ( ie- flush/str8/boat/ect/ect ) on the river, I just started watching…

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156

Greetings Ms S.
This topic is kinda off a little bit already. The request for the results of this bad beat inquisition are simply not obtainable.
Too many layers upon layers of mathematical combinations for a 9 seat table. …
Writing a computer code to calculate or calibrate the unpredictable nature of humans isn’t possible.

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157

I am new to this game played 4 days. Today spent about 8 hours playing. I began to notice something funny everytime by bet got around or over 200 chips. I started looking at the replays and noticed that the payouts were going to the wrong player. The machine was making mistakes.

158

Greetings Dennis,
Sorry to hear about the mix up my friend. There is tons of help here. You’ll actually be surprised at how helpful even our players are…
First things first, to get help successfully here in the future, in the upper left hand corner you’ll notice two small serial numbers. One’s for the current hand, the other is for the previous hand, in case it takes a second to sink in “What the hell just happened ! ! !” These are virtually the keys to our Replay Poker family & Social Poker Club Kingdom… You can have any of us or most all of us look at the hand in question. Then management will review it for you on several levels if you’re still not quite sure … There is a tournament serial number or ring game number somewhere as well, although you’ll most likely never need it, unless you’re like me and screw up the other numbers first… Damn Dog ! ! !
In the mean time if you can let everyone know what kind of poker were you playing, Ring game ? Tournament ? Perhaps any part of the names you remember, maybe what time. This will probably get the unofficial Replay Swat team’s attention and now have something to look into… Anything you can give these fine folks to go off of, they WILL find it ! ! !
In fact I’ve never seen them not find an offending hand, game, or tournament. So take a well deserved breath, relax, we have your back… :sunglasses:

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159

So how do you INFER anything from these columns (which as you describe would really require only one column?) How do I know if the data is unusual? Just collecting the data is not particularly meaningful. I have to have an “expected” behavior to compare it to.

160

I don’t think you can determine the number of winning hands you have, as you aren’t able to see all the cards due to mucking.

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161

I think it does have a reason to favor HANDS, not players. To create excitement.

162

If this (creating excitement with bigger hands) were true without favoring players, how is that different from being random from the players’ perspectives? If it comes as an equal surprise to everyone–and it would–we’d never know it, would we?

The only rational answer is if you don’t trust the games, don’t play them. The sad reality is that we’re hundreds of times more likely to run into a card cheat in a live home game than in any regular, on-going organized game in a casino or on line, especially when no money is involved.

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163

I don’t see anyone claiming that they always hit their draws on the river. If the deal was biased towards big hands, that would have to happen a lot too.
If you do often hit on the river, please let me know so I can avoid ever playing against you :grinning:

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