I’m fascinated by the statistical and psychological challenge in determining whether free sites are juiced for action and/or dealt out to reward donk/aggressive (sub-optimal) play- ie rigged/non random.
The most interesting example to me is users who have some skill and play surprisingly loose, already accounting for free chips and equally loose opponents.Comparing the action to live games with drunk rich maniacs,the card fall ‘seems’ entirely different free online, which tells me it’s rigged and smart players play accordingly and win. The live outcomes are certainly different- the maniacs get slaughtered as long as stakes stay low enough for table to absorb the variance.
Second example are donks and calling stations, obviously rife on free sites, where run outs are easier to assess statistically. Comparing to low stakes online eg E 0.50/1 on Unibet (no bots or HUD) where play is fairly loose on Saturday evenings. Not as loose as free but plenty loose. Accounting for free users playing any 2,the runner runner all in draws hit only maybe 40-50% of the frequency on Unibet compared to Replay My experience and judgement says Replay (and other free sites) is rigged.
Looking at the ‘Why bother rigging it’ argument, there is EVERY incentive for both free and paid sites to rig
Long as they don’t get caught
Paid sites are well regulated (I’ve dealt with Malta Financial Services Authority and they are on the ball and very strict) and, most importantly, so profitable its probably a bad risk to rig, certainly in last 5 or so years. Someone can analyse a few million hands and if they are credible enough you’re done.(The discredited Bovada study could have had a different outcome)
Free sites that exist just to feed the associated paid site were/are blatantly rigged to encourage fish to deposit. Not played in a few years so may have changed
A new phenomenon is free sites that sell chips. That’s their biz model.
So here we are at Replay. I found Replay via google adwords. Poker is a VERY expensive keyword that tells me Replay make money. Maybe very good money.
POKER IS BORING and needs patience even most regs and grinders cant sustain. I played 5/10 at Borgata last month and it was like a funeral. The regs were playing 1 hand an orbit max and delighted with 3 bigs an hour. Sorry, but the average free chip joe who might throw $5 at Replay poker just can’t enjoy the action.If they loosen up they bust and leave- no $5++ for replay. Unless…it’s rigged
Now i truly love the game, I’ve read all the arguments from experienced players why i’m fooling myself,why my subconscious is making excuses for me etc etc and recognise I COULD BE WRONG!
I don’t wish to slur the owners of Replay, it’s a fun gig. BUT observation 100% confirms logic that Replay should be, and is, rigged. Both juiced for action (big hands for multiple players) and non random run outs rewarding underdog.
Stating it isn’t rigged, certified by whomever, is noble and makes me think twice, even three times, but the action i’ve seen tells me it is. Super happy to be proven wrong
Source of expertise:
I’m an experienced and moderately winning player of 30 years both on and offline, entered math and statistic competitions as a teenager, have read extensively about psychological traits such as cognitive dissonance and confirmation bias,and was a professional trader for 25 years.
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This site indeed does not keep records of all that kind of stuff, which is why for my own testing I just played for a while and kept track of the necessary info myself.
