Is there any good way to avoid getting stacked by a set, when we have top pair/good kicker, in position, with a low SPR?
You can kind of tell that I think the answer might be “no,” but I’m curious what y’all think.
Lost a few tourneys like this recently, and reviewing the hands, I’m hard pressed to find a line that doesn’t lose to the sets, that isn’t also losing EV the vast majority of times they DON’T flop a set.
Especially if there’s a flush/straight draw on board I kind of feel like we just have to protect our EQ, get value from draws, and roll our eyes when it turns out they were calling down/check-raising turn with a set right?
The only inflection point I see is on the turn/river:
-on the turn we will sometime check for pot control/range balance, and when a tight player then leads big on the brick river, we can start to re-evaluate the relative strength of a hand like TPTK
-if we get check-raised on the turn, we can consider whether villain is the type of player who will do this with just a draw (many on Replay will not), and consider folding turn or checking back river
I really think it’s player-dependent, I don’t think I’ve seen a check-raise bluff on here unless it’s ridiculously low SPR in late stage tourney so in those positions you have to make exploitative folds where you would normally call. Also when the board is super dry there’s basically no players that will find viable semi-bluffs/bluffs at any frequency so you’re usually going up against big value when you see x-r (especially on the turn). Pretty hard to avoid getting stacked at least some of the time though: sets are absolute monsters because of how well they’re disguised.
1 Like
Thanks for your thoughtful reply. I agree
I’m having a hard time recently implementing what experience is showing to be true: that especially later in tournaments, when SPR is low, the value range is stacked/very narrow and there basically isn’t a bluff range. I keep calling off with A9 on ace high flops against big aggression because “well they could have (insert hand they never have)” and losing. Easier said than done, I guess!
funny that you talk about A9 because I ran into a check-raise with it in a live game on an Ace-high board, tank called and then folded turn and nitty opponent showed me his flopped aces up
It’s just down to player strength and whether you think your opponent is capable of bluffing at the end of the day, generally better safe than sorry if you’re trying to ladder late stage tourney
1 Like
pretty sure A9 is my biggest loser. terrible hand lol. just good enough to make you put your stack in bad. good luck at the tables
1 Like
I think the best strategy is to put yourself in their shoes. How would you play trips to get the most payoff. What kind of player are they? Are their betting patterns and sizing telling you something you need to hear? That is best way to sniff out the set, and minimize how much you donate. The good thing is they will try to keep you on the hook until the end so straight and flush draws will have a chance to get there. Now it the board pairs giving you trips the hard way, just kiss the chips goodbye lol.
2 Likes