Flopping top set

Replay Poker Poker Strategy
1

https://www.replaypoker.com/hand/replay/419239792
I’m wondering how you would play this hand differently. Would you have check-raised on the flop or would you led the flop?

I would define Button as a tight passive player would bets all his strong hands, able to make big folds, and has the occasional bluff.

Hero is the BB with AdAc.
But limps. SB calls. Hero makes it 3BB. But calls. SB calls.

The 3bb raise was a misclick. I meant to click pot instead of 3x, so I would have normally raised to 4bb.

Flop: Ah3cKd (9bb)
SB checks. Hero checks. But bets 1bb. SB calls. Hero calls.

I check since I have most of the remaining aces, and I want my opponents to improve. In addition, this boards is very favorable for me since when I raise, I’m likely to have strong aces. If I bet, my opponents might get away with a pair of kings.

When Button min bets, he could have anything. Since I have two aces, it’s unlikely that they have an ace. I doubt that I can get two streets of value against a king. I call to hope that they improve or bet with worse. I don’t know if check raising is better.

Turn: Ah3cKd Qd (12bb)
SB checks. Hero checks. But bets 6bb. SB folds. Hero calls.

When Button bets, I think he could have a king or better, or a draw. Looking back, I think I clearly should of have check-raised. Button would probably call with his flush draws, pair + straight draws, 2-pair, and sets.

River: Ah3cKdQd 9h (24bb)
Hero checks. But bets 12bb. Hero calls.

There is no point in betting here since he would continue to bet with 2 pair+, and I don’t think I’ll get him to call with kings if I bet. I can also catch some rare bluffs with some missed draws and some random ace pairs. When he bets, I was kinda of scared of JT, so I didn’t check raise, thinking that he might fold his two pairs.

Let’s analyze the hands that he could call with. He does not have any strong aces like AK, AQ, or AJ since he would have bet the flop. If he has a weaker ace like A9, he would fold to a check-raise. He could have KQ, 33, KK, QQ, or JT, or K9. There are 18 combos of 2 pair, 18 combos of sets, and 18 combos of straights. If he folds his two pairs, there wouldn’t be much merit to betting since half the time he is calling with better. However, I don’t know if he would fold his 2 pairs and even if he did, check-raising is still a break-even play, so I should have clearly check-raised.

1 Like
2

Just my opinion: your smooth check preflop was a judgement call that worked out very well. Your check post flop set up your situation perfectly. But, once the button has bet and the small blind called, you should’ve raised, either half-pot or pot size. That’s enough to make any possible straight draw think about folding, but not enough to get a strong pair or two to drop. In the actual event, you might’ve gotten a re-raise or two calls, but not likely from a one-way straight draw. If you then bet the turn, you’ll likely get raised by the smaller set and have to decide whether to call the possible straight or much more likely two pairs. Your final all in bet would likely have been called.
On the other hand, your way worked out just fine for you. So, good job!

3

i have read through your self analysis and i think i agree on all your points,
i only like to add a few points just in case it might help:

  • at the turn check raise i would defenitely make a big one, probably around 24BB’s, it’s because of the reasons you pointed out. you only want draws to come along if they have to overpay for it. besides sets will probably pay you off as well, usually 2pair would too, but if he’s as tight as you mentioned, it’s something you have to figure out based on your reads. but still, a big checkraise is fine.

  • river check raise kinda depends on your read how tight he is. if he probably would 3bet his sets, i would defenitely take the risk by check-raising big and obviously call if he 3bets.
    however, if you know he would be careful and just call with a set, i would make a small check-raise (30BB’s) and re-evaluate if he 3bets. because if he’s someone to just call a check raise with a set (and maybe 2pair), it means he probably would only 3bet JT.
    if he’s too unknown to know if he would only 3bet JT there, i would just take the risk and call his 3bet, purely because most of the time a set is assumed to be good enough to 3bet with.

4

horribly played! i would of got all his chips!

1 Like
5

I think your opponent played it all wrong. He didn’t make anything out of your pre-flop raise, possible better sets in A, K or Q, flush draw or straight draw. He was going happily with his hand, You did right by just letting him make the bets. Any raise by you would have alerted him, I am not sure though, it depends on the player’s profile.

But pure poker would say “Honey, he called with Ace set”.

Added:
His chip count is as of now 20,000. He looks like the type of players casually buy chips and play. They are not serious about playing the game tight or correct.

6

You left way too much value out there, IMO. If you aren’t squeezing a lot more out of your monster hands, its very hard to have a solid winrate. Not as important here as for cash but still something to work on.