There was a time when I would have folded this turn! That time may or may not be yesterday!
I think this is just a pure MDF call (Minimum Defense Frequency). If we fold this spot with top set, we are ONLY calling with flushes. How many flushes do we have as played? Certainly some, but probably not enough that we can fold every non-flush on this turn. I think we would be pretty exploitable.
And indeed, our opponent would have exploited us here!
Interesting!
Many notes on players that read, " He called with less than best "
or
" Just go over the top and he will fold a high percentage of the time "
Believe me, youāll fold again! This is just an aberration!
Thanks for posting Luke
Always interesting
also it looks punty but I donāt hate the line from ELARQUI. I think itās probably a better play if he has a heart in his hand. But if heās not gonna fold the flop, bluffing the turn is probably better than check-folding (check-calling is probably just not a thing). It sure looks like he has a flush, and a lot of my hands arenāt too happy about that turn.
Hereās an interesting question: would you rather have the Kh here, or is it an easier call when you donāt have it?
I think Iād rather have the Kh. It removes a lot of flush combos villain can have, and gives me a nice redraw if villain isnāt holding the Ah.
Unblocking flush draws is also nice, but I think Iām up against (either a made flush or no heart) here at least as often as Iām up against one high heart making a semi-bluff. How much that has to do with my intuitive sense of ELARQUIās range (weāve probably played at least a hundred hands together), I canāt say.
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āall three options are goodā
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I expect to see bluffs here almost never, but I do think KhJx, KhTx might shove - they canāt really check fold with only a half pot bet left. Thereās not much reason for a flush to donk shove, so I think we can discount at least some flushes already. I would rather have the Kh too though, because KJo/KTo shouldnāt really be in range, although clearly they would be in this case. I think you can probably argue it either way because it doesnāt really matter.
I like the bluff from ELARQUI on the turn too, and they clearly had that plan on the flop, but itās almost never going to work with so little behind. The punt is calling pre-flop really.
Not to bring down on your parade, but as soon as you donāt become emotionally attached to your plays, the stronger youāll be.
Letās be real. He played the whole hand wrong.
We all make mistakes, I made a lot of stupid mistakes. But if we are going to point out his plays, letās not give false pretense towards the lines they took.
What you say is true, but a lot of these guys will donk when they get there because theyāre scared of the check back and donāt want to miss value. Kinda the opposite effect of how theyāll also often slow down on scare cards when they should continue betting.
Hmm, I donāt know that looking back on oneās play and feeling good or bad about the accuracy of said play constitutes ābeing emotionally attachedā
You wonāt get any false pretense from me. I genuinely think he made the best of a bad situation. I agree with lihiue that the big mistake was getting involved preflop. Once heās there, I think the line he took is fine (if still not too likely to work, as lihiue also points out).
Like, yeah he should probably just fold on the flop as well. But if heās going to continue itās pretty gross to call pre and flop and then just give up on that turn, no?
Feeling good or bad about a play IS being emotionally attached.
Right, and itās a reasonable thing to do on the river, but I think people will at least think about it on the turn. I think the insta-shove is a bit of a give away (and those players will often shove with a set or two pair as well, because theyāre scared of the 4th heart rolling off)
Why would you play on a free money site if youāre not going get an emotional response out of it?
Also, getting attached to your cards in the middle of a hand is bad, but I canāt see how taking pride in your good plays and getting disappointed by your mistakes is anything but positive overall.
it is not gross, it is the right play. An airball punt is not the correct play, donāt matter if it is the only way to win. I believe you answer why that was a mistake in another comment of yours.
I agree the insta-shove is a pretty reliable tell. Honestly, in the end that probably gave me the last push over the line to call.
being emotionally attached towards your good plays or bad can affect your mental state, it is best to look at your plays objectively. it is a good habit to have imo (unless if you are recreationally playing poker then it is ok to have emotions).
Well, āan airball punt is not the correct playā is certainly not ALWAYS true. Iām very glad in retrospect that I didnāt fold this turn, as I think that would have been a mistake. But itās not like I didnāt consider folding! I certainly did.
If thatās the case, I think shoving this turn is already almost by definition better than giving up. Villain has put most of his stack in the middle already. How often do I have to fold here before his odds of winning the pot make the bluff viable? How crappy do his chances of cashing this tournament after folding turn have to be to make the bluff viable?
Hard questions for me, at least, to answer, but I feel like there is at least an argument to be made for the line he took being the ālesser of two evilsā here. But I mean, we can all agree that by the turn, all of Villainās options suck. They overplayed a weak hand preflop and on the flop, and put themselves in a really bad situation.