Just a lil Proud MDF Moment :3

The Hand

There was a time when I would have folded this turn! That time may or may not be yesterday! :sweat_smile:

I think this is just a pure MDF call (Minimum Defense Frequency). If we fold this spot with top set, we are ONLY calling with flushes. How many flushes do we have as played? Certainly some, but probably not enough that we can fold every non-flush on this turn. I think we would be pretty exploitable.

And indeed, our opponent would have exploited us here! :wink:

Interesting!

Many notes on players that read, " He called with less than best "

or

" Just go over the top and he will fold a high percentage of the time "

Believe me, youā€™ll fold again! This is just an aberration!

Thanks for posting Luke

Always interesting

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also it looks punty but I donā€™t hate the line from ELARQUI. I think itā€™s probably a better play if he has a heart in his hand. But if heā€™s not gonna fold the flop, bluffing the turn is probably better than check-folding (check-calling is probably just not a thing). It sure looks like he has a flush, and a lot of my hands arenā€™t too happy about that turn.

Hereā€™s an interesting question: would you rather have the Kh here, or is it an easier call when you donā€™t have it?

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I think Iā€™d rather have the Kh. It removes a lot of flush combos villain can have, and gives me a nice redraw if villain isnā€™t holding the Ah.

Unblocking flush draws is also nice, but I think Iā€™m up against (either a made flush or no heart) here at least as often as Iā€™m up against one high heart making a semi-bluff. How much that has to do with my intuitive sense of ELARQUIā€™s range (weā€™ve probably played at least a hundred hands together), I canā€™t say.

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Doug Polk entered the chat

ā€œall three options are goodā€

Doug Polk left the chat

I expect to see bluffs here almost never, but I do think KhJx, KhTx might shove - they canā€™t really check fold with only a half pot bet left. Thereā€™s not much reason for a flush to donk shove, so I think we can discount at least some flushes already. I would rather have the Kh too though, because KJo/KTo shouldnā€™t really be in range, although clearly they would be in this case. I think you can probably argue it either way because it doesnā€™t really matter.

I like the bluff from ELARQUI on the turn too, and they clearly had that plan on the flop, but itā€™s almost never going to work with so little behind. The punt is calling pre-flop really.

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Not to bring down on your parade, but as soon as you donā€™t become emotionally attached to your plays, the stronger youā€™ll be.

Letā€™s be real. He played the whole hand wrong.

We all make mistakes, I made a lot of stupid mistakes. But if we are going to point out his plays, letā€™s not give false pretense towards the lines they took.

What you say is true, but a lot of these guys will donk when they get there because theyā€™re scared of the check back and donā€™t want to miss value. Kinda the opposite effect of how theyā€™ll also often slow down on scare cards when they should continue betting.

Hmm, I donā€™t know that looking back on oneā€™s play and feeling good or bad about the accuracy of said play constitutes ā€œbeing emotionally attachedā€ :slight_smile:

You wonā€™t get any false pretense from me. I genuinely think he made the best of a bad situation. I agree with lihiue that the big mistake was getting involved preflop. Once heā€™s there, I think the line he took is fine (if still not too likely to work, as lihiue also points out).

Like, yeah he should probably just fold on the flop as well. But if heā€™s going to continue itā€™s pretty gross to call pre and flop and then just give up on that turn, no?

Feeling good or bad about a play IS being emotionally attached.

Right, and itā€™s a reasonable thing to do on the river, but I think people will at least think about it on the turn. I think the insta-shove is a bit of a give away (and those players will often shove with a set or two pair as well, because theyā€™re scared of the 4th heart rolling off)

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Why would you play on a free money site if youā€™re not going get an emotional response out of it?

Also, getting attached to your cards in the middle of a hand is bad, but I canā€™t see how taking pride in your good plays and getting disappointed by your mistakes is anything but positive overall.

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it is not gross, it is the right play. An airball punt is not the correct play, donā€™t matter if it is the only way to win. I believe you answer why that was a mistake in another comment of yours.

I agree the insta-shove is a pretty reliable tell. Honestly, in the end that probably gave me the last push over the line to call.

being emotionally attached towards your good plays or bad can affect your mental state, it is best to look at your plays objectively. it is a good habit to have imo (unless if you are recreationally playing poker then it is ok to have emotions).

Well, ā€œan airball punt is not the correct playā€ is certainly not ALWAYS true. Iā€™m very glad in retrospect that I didnā€™t fold this turn, as I think that would have been a mistake. But itā€™s not like I didnā€™t consider folding! I certainly did.

If thatā€™s the case, I think shoving this turn is already almost by definition better than giving up. Villain has put most of his stack in the middle already. How often do I have to fold here before his odds of winning the pot make the bluff viable? How crappy do his chances of cashing this tournament after folding turn have to be to make the bluff viable?

Hard questions for me, at least, to answer, but I feel like there is at least an argument to be made for the line he took being the ā€œlesser of two evilsā€ here. But I mean, we can all agree that by the turn, all of Villainā€™s options suck. They overplayed a weak hand preflop and on the flop, and put themselves in a really bad situation.

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