Hand 1: You’re in good position. You raised enough with AA to get exactly one caller. You got it all-in against them, and you won the hand. That’s how it’s supposed to go, isn’t it?
The only way you’re beat here is if they have a King, and that’s definitely in their range, so this hand wasn’t played without some risk, but you got out of it OK. You could have been scared by the two Kings on the board, and maybe you should have been more scared of them than you were. By the river, any 5 or suited Hearts also has you beaten. You took a chance here and got paid well for doing so.
On BlackWidow’s end of it, I don’t mind calling the preflop raise with ATs, but after that I’m not sure what they were doing. The flop takes away any possibility of them making a flush, which would have been their best hand to make here, and leaves them with just a pair of Tens. Middle pair, top kicker is not a hand I would call an all-in bet with. I think they’re calling here because they have enough chips not to be hurt by it, and the off chance that their hand stands up and eliminates you is enough to keep them in. But it’s mathematically not a good call. They still had outs, if the river had been a T instead of a 5, they would have had you, but that’s 2 outs in a deck of 52, and based on the board texture when you shoved I would have read that as “I have at least 1 King”. A third T would give them a boat which could beat trip Kings, but still looking at the odds it would have been much better for them to lay down to your Turn bet and keep those chips.
Hand 2: Board texture is very similar to the first board. Your starting cards are weaker, 55, but your flop is better this time, giving you a set of 5s. This time you do have a boat at the Turn, making your hand very strong, but since it’s 5s full, you’re still beat if your opponent has 9s full or K9, K5, or KK. We can rule out KK and 99 because he would have raised preflop with those hands, more than likely, and if he’d flopped 2 pair he probably would have bet it stronger. I think shoving the Turn is probably not the best play to make here, because it puts him all in to call you and that means he’s folding unless he’s holding a King. Your best situation here would have been if he did have a King, and thought that trip Kinds was good, so he calls, and then is surprised by your 5s full. He bet pot at the flop, and called a big raise from you, and I like that raise, so could well have been on a King, though, so maybe he could have had a King, that’s a reasonable read to put him on a KX here. This means shoving the Turn wasn’t unreasonable, and if he had really been on KX that King pairing on the board on the turn would have kept him in the hand rather than folding to your bet. So I’m not sure what he might have been on to give him the confidence to call your raise at the flop, then muck. Maybe AA? Maybe TT+? Either way, you’re on a full house, but it’s a weak full house in a hand where your opponent could have had KK, K9, 99, or K5, all of which would have called you and won. I’m thinking when he checked the Turn, there’s two ways to read it: If he has AA, he’s now scared that you could have KX and improved to a hand that beats his. Or, he has KX, and is checking to feign weakness and suck you in to a big bet. Betting all-in with a well-hidden Boat isn’t a bad play to make here, unless he’s trapping you with KK, K9 or K5, and while those are all in his range, those 3 specific combinations are fairly unlikely, and if he has AK, KQ, KJ, KT, K8, K7, K6, K4, K3, K2 he can still think he’s trapping you only to have the tables turned on him by your 5s full.
I think if you check here, you give him a chance to make a better boat if he’s on one of those hands, and that could have upended you. But then, if he’d had KX, he’s probably calling with trip Kings anyway, so clearly he’s not on a King. In that case, checking back might have been better. This would have shown that you, too, were “scared” by the second King, and maybe made him feel comfortable betting the River, which you could have then call or raise, getting more value.
Or you could have made a smaller bet on the Turn, maybe a min bet as a “feeler”. If you min-bet, he either folds if he’s scared of the paired board, in which case the outcome is no different from how it actually went down. Or he calls, in which case you’re getting a little more value, and possibly more action on the River, which would be OK assuming 5s full holds up. Or he raises back you, in which case you then have to ask yourself what’s he have – likely trip just Kings, but possibly 9s full, Kings full, or quad Kings, or possibly just a bluff, and do you call then or muck? That’s a harder decision, and by shoving the Turn, you don’t have to make it – you put him at making a hard decision instead. And trying to finagle extra value out of the lowest boat isn’t necessary. So I think after all that analysis it’s a good place to shove, and you did well in the hand.
As for limping 55 preflop, I don’t even think that was a bad move. You went into the flop 3-handed, so maybe a raise could have isolated to one, or could have won you the blinds. But if you raise her and get called, then what are you doing with those 5s if you don’t hit a set? You’re beat by just about any overpair then, and it’s not great to raise a pair of rags and then immediately have to dump the hand because junk like J6 pairing the 6 on the flop could have beaten you if you miss your set. It’s worth seeing a cheap flop for a chance at seeing a set, and that’s exactly what you got. If you do raise here, I wouldn’t raise that high – a 2BB raise might have helped to ensure that the people after you in the hand don’t come in, but they didn’t anyway.
Hand 3: You’re a Jack away from a Q-high straight, and holding top pair after the Turn. Maybe MainCats has J9 and already has a straight at the flop, which is why they were able to snap-call your half-pot bet on the flop. Or maybe they have AA or AQ or QQ and have your A9 beaten. From UTG, it’s just possible that they could have chosen to limp those cards, although at a 5-handed table being UTG is middle position, I think they could have afforded to raise here if they’re holding those hands.
So more likely they had J9. If they were on J9, then they probably should have raised your bet on the flop, and they didn’t do that. So either they don’t have the straight, or they’re slow playing it hoping you’ll bet again and they can get more value out of you. Ac on the Turn gives anyone suited clubs a nice flush draw, which could have scared them enough to change their mind about slow-playing a straight, in which case shoving to protect a made straight against a possible flush is a smart play. And in any case, if they’re shoving here with QQ, or any AT+, or A8, they have you beat. You have no flush draw, and an inside straight draw where making the straight on the river might only get you a chopped pot. But it’s also possible they could be holding KJ, and the turn brought them Broadway. Although, most of the above hands they should have raised with pre-flop. But I think KJ would have called your bet on the flop without raising it. So yes, I think folding here was OK, very likely a good fold. Not easy to do when your hand just improved, but very reasonable in the face of the bet that you were asked to call with just a pair of Aces.
