What do y’all think of villain’s line here?
I kinda dig the river bluff, unsure about using this particular combo but…
Curious what others make of it
It’s bad enough to call all the way to river with no pair no draw nothing, unless your going to try to bluff the river, IF your opponent is not a call station, and is tight passive, and if you rarely do it, etc, as its extremely risky, crazy, insane, etc.
That said I have done, made such plays successfully work, but only because I only do them once in a blue moon, etc.
But whats even crazier, more insane, is to call down, bluff the river, when their opponent, is constantly check raising, reraising, EXTREMELY LIKELY has a straight, likely has them beat, likely IS NOT GOING TO FOLD TO A BLUFF.
Villain is likely beat by a straight or full house. Villain is repping a full house or quads, on river. Villain can’t or shouldnt expect Hero to fold a set, straight, full house to a straight, full house, quads, because of bluff chance, and because of the extreme cooler concept. The extreme cooler concept is that you don’t fold a full house, even if beat by quads, unless your up against the nittiest player in history of poker,etc, because its so extremely rare that a full house is up against quads, and because a full house is likely up against either a bluff, 2 pair, set, straight, flush, top pair top kicker, and not something better then a full house.
Now if the board was something like 2345 of spades, and up against a NIT and theNIT bets into your full house, then your full house might be beat, and you might probably seriously consider folding, and might probably fold.
Villain had between zero to 2% fold equity. Terrible play throughout the hand postflop by villain, including the terribly bad river bluff. Villain played like a DONK in that hand. The only part of the hand that could have been ok was the UTG raise, and maybe the flop, but after that the villain should have given up and folded.
Also Villain’s Raising range likely doesnt hit that board, and if Villain has a overpair to the board instead of overcards, Hero’s calling Range either hit the board just as good with either overcards, or a over pair, or Hero has hands like 87, 65, 54, 44, 55, etc, in Hero’s call range that make 2 pair’s, sets, straight, etc, so terribly bad board for Villain to float to river, bluff river on, etc.
Nice call of DONK’s crazy, insane, wacko, play, bluff. Way to take the DONK to VALUE TOWN.
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I basically agree with you overall, though I’m not sure it’s quite as terrible as all that. I really did consider folding! In the end, the reasoning you describe led me to a call. But the fact that I even thought about mucking a straight, to me, suggests it might not be the worst bluff in the world.
Then again, maybe I only considered folding because I’m the fish 
I think villain’s biggest problem is that he just doesn’t have enough 4x and 6x in range as played. I wonder what solver thinks are the best airball bluffs here on the river?
Which airball combos do you think would be most logical to turn into a bluff here? Or is it your position that Villain simply shouldn’t bluff this spot, as you suggested already, unless Hero is the type of player who also won’t have many straights in range, aka more of a nit?
Pocket 3’s would be the obvious candidate. Kc8c seems like a good choice too.
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Perfetly agree with @Asuronetorius
Well played.
I thought the opponent had an ace. No idea why villain called your raise on the flop, although he’s in position, two overcards, and a bigger stack. Usually players on the right with a smaller stack play a bit too tight to avoid being busted, especially being only about 15x(sb+bb+ante) deep.
However the board on the flop is too wet to count on over cards. As you called a raise from the BB with a “small” stack (pretty gutsy with 78 but just about deep enough), you were likely to have an ace or even have a lot of equity with just one pair or strong draw. Basically turning Q10 into trash as you can only connect by pairing and pairing might be too weak anyway.
I don’t like how villain played and I think you got the absolute max out if it. Perfect flop size betting.
On the turn,I would want to avoid villain drawing to a full house or flush.
I think you should have gone all-in on the turn, or maybe check. The bet was too large. You basically were pot committed after that bet with a straight. Villain would probably fold or make a mistake by calling without having the pot odds. If villain calls, it puts you in a tough position for a big river bet, let alone an all-in from loose villain. You risk to be busted and there’s good chance you have the second best hand for many rivers, you will have to fold a lot of equity.
Off-course I don’t know how villain played but looking at this one hand he was pretty lose, I don’t like that immediately on my left, certainly not with this stack size.
It’s seems like a “villain is a donk” situation, but it’s actually an interesting spot worth thinking about.
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I don’t understand your comment about turn sizing. B50 was “too large?” There was plenty left behind; we reached river with SPR of about 1. I think my hand likes to use a linear size on the turn to get all in on the river.
What would you have bet, and why do you think a smaller size be better?