How far can we go with "sizing up"?

Replay Poker Poker Strategy
1

I am playing a 6max MTT right now and my table is INSANE.

I 3bet pre, get called by the BB.
Flop 2 7 J rainbow, BB checks, Hero cbets 40% pot, BB calls.
Turn 9h, bringing flush draw. Check check.
River Ax, flush misses. BB bets 1/2 pot, hero calls with Ah8h. BB shows AQ no heart and wins.

So in light of this “no fold button” tomfoolery, I made my next open 5.5x instead of my typical 2.5-3.5x. SB and BB called, I missed the flop with AJ, and SB ended up winning a big pot they made a flush with Js2s.

Js2s! From the SB! For 5.5bb!

Is it crazy to start opening these guys like, 7x? If they are willing to call with crap can we just keep going bigger?

Is there a point where we should stop, and if so, why?

2
  1. AQ calling of 3bet is fine unless 3bet is GIGANTIC, HUGE, BIG.
    2, AQ’s flat float cbet call postflop while not terrible as long as preflop 3bet small enough, still wasnt good, great either. but wasnt tom foolery unless preflop 3 bet BIG, and unless you had TIGHT image.
  2. J2 suited call was very bad call. happens to me a lot too. That said, unless either have JJ to AA, AK suited, etc, or unless they will passively fold to A9 to AK, KQ suited, 44,55,66,77 that you either miss flop, or facing overcards, then raising 7,8,9, 10 x preflop will bloat the pot, and they will still likely call with bad cards that might hit the board, where if board comes J2x, your not putting that board as likely hitting them big, or that good, and usually you’ll miss flop, and if cbet, on that missed flop, thjey will likely float call with nothing, gutshot draw, bottom pair, then take pot away from you later. So really bloating pot up that big preflop has a good chance to be throwing chips away to that player, ESPECIALLY EARLIER TOURNY.
    Later tourny in similar situations then raising 6.5 x bb preflop might semi probably ok to do
3

No, not crazy, it’s just hard to implement a large open raise size correctly. You need to be pretty tight if your going to open that large, so you have to fold hands you might otherwise open. You could try multiple open sizings, but that’s going to be very hard to balance. Often balance doesn’t matter, but most players are going to get some idea of what’s going on pre-flop fairly quickly.
I think going bigger is better when deep stacked, but it’s probably not ideal when short stacked.

4

I get that it’ll suck when I open 7x and run into a real hand, but if they’re still gonna call with like, Q8s, do I really “need to be pretty tight”? Won’t we just print money the 90% of the time they don’t wake up with a premium?

I guess it’s problematic in that at some point, putting in that much of our stack preflop with a good-but-subpremium hand will essentially amount to playing bingo, because what happens when we miss the flop… hmm.

5

That’s true if there’s only one or maybe two players who aren’t folding, but usually it only takes one call and now everyone is getting a price and calling too. You don’t really want a hand like ATo in that situation - you’ll have to fold a lot and there’s significant reverse implied odds when you hit.
It’s really only the offsuit broadways you have to start folding from early position, but that can be a decent amount of combos.

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6

That’s cool, I usually muck that trash from upfront anyway! :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:

7

As you should at 9-max, I’m pretty much always thinking in 6-max ranges. You get the point though - you have to be careful with the parts of your range that often make strong hands, but that rarely want to play for stacks.

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8

But I always wanna play for stacks :smiling_face_with_tear:
Srsly tho, I do get your point, and it seems a salient one.

9

I think this is my biggest weakness, on the flop I master the sizing acceptably, but on the turn and the river, I am lost. I know that when the flush comes in, you have to make small or medium sizings because the equity is redistributed, but in fact, I very regularly hesitate between 50 and 75% for my sizings on “more classic” boards.

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10

Why this is send here this is about preflop and my post is about post flop

11

The last few days I’ve been playing some rings and what I have noticed is that many of the 25/50 tables are pretty crazy pre-flop. The 10/20s aren’t like this at all and I have no idea why.

What happens on these 25/50s is like your examples, There are 4 limpers, so I open KQs for 8x … and I get like SIX calls!! And it happens in more than half the hands. It’s absolutely bonkers!

Of course, the conventional wisdom is that if you’re not getting enough folds pre, size up. But 8x is already pretty big. Do I have to bet 15x? 20x? That’s a crapton just to get a little isolation and then whiff the flop and check-fold.

So I started thinking, If it;s going to cost me 8x, 10x, 12x and still be 5 or 6 or 7-handed, why don’t I just limp with everyone else (if I have an opening hand)? Stay tight but save the aggression for post-flop?

I haven’t really tried it out yet because I did something that I think is a little smarter ~ I found a better table. : P

12

If we are playing with bad players, we exploit them. We exploit nits with aggression and bluffs, but nits are the rarest of fish. All other forms of exploitation involve one common factor ~ the range advantage of tightness. Now I concede that you are a far better player than I and who am I to say, but the way that I see it ~ as tempting as it is to get into pots with loose bum fish ~ tighten up against bad players and show them bad news when you hit.

13

no because you want to the pot is bigger when you have a good hand, even if they are a lot of guys

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14

Here is something for both ya guys Napkin and Guru and others.

Say you raise KQ suited 4x and get a average of 5 callers. Blinds are 50/100. True for both Tournament, Cash game. Say you do this 100 times per session. Say you hit flop 50 times(50%), say you win 25 times out of those 50 times that hit flop(sometimes you get outflopped, or bluffed out, lose). Say you bluff out, win 15 out of the 50 times you miss. So say you have 40 wins on average total(25+15), postflop. Say 10 times, 10 out of 100 times you raise, everyone folds, and pick up blinds, for winning either 1000 dollars or 1000 tournament chips.

So here your totals, winnings, assuming you dont win a big all in or lose a all in, and only win the blinds, plus what the callers called preflop.

5 callers per hand is 500 and 100 hands is 100,000. 25 wins out of 50 hit flops is 25000. 15 wins due to 15 bluff times out of the 50 times flop missed, is 15000. 1000 for the everyone folding preflop 10 times out of the 100 times. 4x raise 400 x 10 is 4000 x 10(10 x 10 = 100) is40000. Profit is 1000

So minimum profit is 1000. And that doesn’t count winning big pot and all ins. And doesn’t count losing big pots, all ins.

And if bluff 5 to 7 to 10 more times for 20 to 25 bluffs out of the 50 times you miss then profit increase up from 1000 to 5000 to 7000 to 10000 profit. And if win 5 more times when hit flop that’s 5000 more profit. And if get folds just 5 more times preflop, that 500 more profit.

So thats 15,500 more profit for 16,500 total NET profit, if very slightly more successful, do what you should do, etc, for a investment of 40,000.

The takeaway? Raising to 4,4.5,5 x preflop is profitable on average and more profitable then limping on average, etc, assuming you play right

You don’t want to raise to 9x to 10x to 13x+ most times you raise because even tho that would technically increase your profit according to the above example, your bloating the pot to high, so that losses will bust you before can get, realize equity, win, etc, on average.

Limiting size of pot via limiting size of pot pot control via raising, betting, checking when your supposed to and proper betsizing, raise sizing, depending on situation, is very important. That’s why 9x to 17x preflop is bad unless have a situational good reason, and unless the situation calls for it.

So if everyone calls your raises despite going 4x, 5x, 6x, 7x, 7.5x, then dont respond by going to 9x to 17x. Just adapt by polishing your postflop, and play good postflop, and you will still be profitable over the long term, as the above example shows.

And its not just theory. I have had to deal with way to many callers in even 500k, 1mil buy in tournaments. And over the long term, its still profitable for me, as I play better postflop then some to a semi lot to semi most of my competition in those tournaments.

I have tried to adapt by going 9x to 17x, and when I have done that, its been extremely volatile, high variance, and about 50/50 EV for upper lower to lower mid to lower higher parts of my range, marginal to semi between marginal to semi premium hands, and only becomes worthwhile for 88 to AA, AT suited, AJ suited, AQ suited, AK suited, KQ suited, unless its a semi bluff, raising lighter to balance range, short stacked, situation calls for it, etc(22 to 77, A2 suited to A9, K8 suited to KJ, Q9 suited to QJ, JT suited, etc)(but that’s the exception, rare, uncommon, occasional, etc)

So its usually best for me and almost everyone to stick to 3.5x to 7.5x depending on limp ins, situations, and as exceptions, go 2.5 x late tournament, bubble, final table, blinds big, and go 9x to 17x if a rare situation calls for it.

Then adjust both preflop and postflop if get a lot of callers that call too much.

That works for me over the long term, and that will probably work for you and work for almost everyone assuming that you, everyone play right.

15

If we hit the flop 50% of the time we would be the best (luckiest) player in the world.

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KQs against a flop.
Hit 40.449% but anyway sometimes we can call with just king high and the backdoors so 50% seems ok

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17

If we are 100bb deep against someone who always calls with any ace, any double Broadway hand, and pair or any suited connector, our EV if we shove KQs - and get called by just this player - is 0.

If we’re playing on a table of full of players like that, so we get 2 calls, our EV is 9bb. Our EV increases the more callers we get.

So really there is no limit on how big we can go if we’re going to get multiple really loose calls. The things is, you do need to be quite tight if you take this approach - opening only the top 10% of hands is optimal if you get 2 callers with the range I outlined. It’s likely better to just open more hands for a smaller/normal size. As long as you still have a stronger range than most of the callers most of the time, more people getting to the flop is a good thing - the increase in the size of the pot almost always outweighs the decrease in your odds of winning said pot.

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