Over calling: A situation where someone bets on the river and we intend to call, particularly if we are closing the action. However, one or more others call. How seriously do we narrow our calling range?
For example:
In a 100/200 game where we have a start stack of 45,000, several players limp and we open with As Qs on the button for 1,400 and get 3 callers.
Flop Qd 8s 5d.
Check to us and we bet 5,000 into ~6,000 pot
Three calls. All sorts of draws are possible and all callers have 40,000 plus
Turn 2h
Check to us and we bet 20,000 into 26,000
Two callers. BB and Cut Off, lets say.
River: Kh
Big Blind shoves for 20,000 and Cut Off calls.
As played, are we always beaten?
Could we have legitimately bet higher on previous streets to avoid this?
Facing just one opponent, do we make the call nearly always?
I think the problem is we bet too high on earlier streets. We’ve left ourselves in a position where call is almost mandatory given the pot odds (20K to win 100K), but we have a bluff catcher in a spot where the cut-off can’t be bluffing and the big blind likely isn’t either. They’re both pot committed too though, so it’s possible you’ll see a worse queen or a pocket pair they just can’t let go of. There’s also not a lot of obvious hands that you lose to. KQ that didn’t open raise pre and Kx of diamonds. It’s not impossible that someone is slow playing a set because we bet quite large on earlier streets, but that’s about it. I don’t think it really matters much what you do in this spot.
The flop bet is just way too big 4-way, leading to a turn where every option seems bad, but 75% pot has to be the worst size. If I’d bet that big and got 3 callers, I think the best play is to check back the turn. Jam would be an option if you think you’ll get called by draws and worse pairs.