Pot size: 3.3M
River bluff size: 300k
This bluff needs to work one out of every TEN TIMES to be profitable. And if it does work 10% of the time, we should be bluffing 100% of the time when we reach this river with squadoosh.
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Small bluff- i like it—your right----i do this in small cash games a lot and it works sometimes n that pays off in the long run.
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Ok, had a great hand today (2 many outs 2 count) and NOTHING on turn or river–So i think of Younguru and bet about 10% of the pot and get 2 folds:)-----i am online n wife asking, " why u lol" and i tell her"It worked again" :).
“If you make it to the river, make sure you are not in over your head.”
–VP Pappy
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Even call stations often do not like calling the river with a weak hand, although it helps big time to be the aggressor of the previous streets.
The river card makes a difference. TONS of people will call anything on the river if the table is weak and they hit the river, even bottom pair on the river. Here’s an example board.
Flop and turn check around.
Ks 8c 4s Qd 6h
Nice and dry. Let’s say that we have 82o. If we bet this, 6x is very often calling and we win. However, same board, different river.
Ks 8c 4s Qd 9h
If we bet this, 9x is almost always calling and we lose.
I see this a lot. Fish get big eyes when they hit, so on weak tables bet if you’re better than the river, check-fold if you’re not. Just make sure to bet enough that Fish won’t come overtop unless he has 2-pair. Take it to the bank. ; )
Gotta say I disagree with this analysis.
TONS of people will call anything on the river if the table is weak and they hit the river, even bottom pair on the river.
This is not broadly true. I’m surprised this has been your experience. Maybe you are making small river bets? Those will get called more often, sure.
Ks 8c 4s Qd 9h
If we bet this, 9x is almost always calling and we lose.
Again, maybe if we use a small size? Prior action makes a difference ofc, but generally, if we fire an overbet on this river there are not going to be many players calling with just 9x.
Just make sure to bet enough that Fish won’t come overtop unless he has 2-pair.
This seems backwards. If we are making a thin value bet on the river, which seems to be what you’re talking about, generally we want to bet small so we can get called by worse (this is where your ideas about getting looked up by 9x come into play - we use a small size for value, 9x shrugs and calls. We use a big size for bluffs, 9x has a hard time continuing.)
This is kind of what small sizes are for, or at least, one of their primary use cases: extracting value from the non-nutted parts of our (and our opponent’s) range, and capping our opponents based on their response. When we bet small, Villain is “incentivized to raise their strong stuff and call their weak stuff” (Marc Goone / Hungry Horse). Betting large on the river for thin value might work in some situations, but as a rule you will start to run into problems as villains will just fold a lot of the hands you beat and some of the hands the call with will beat you (you “value own” yourself—which is good to do sometimes, but not all the time).
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Maybe it’s the stakes. I mostly play 20k and down, stakes which you haven’t seen since you were in diapers. I am talking about weak tables here only though. Weak as in min bet flop, check turn or weaker, etc, that kind of stuff. No one wants to touch this board even though it’s on the dry side. If I bet the river and get called, Villain simply hit the river guaranteed. He’s been hanging around with his 86o just hoping to hit and dammit a 6 came in on the river. Call station Villain isn’t folding this to 1/3rd pot, often not even half-pot or more depending how loose he is.
However, once in a while that 86o will flop AJ8 and hang around with bottom pair. When he hits 2-pair he will come overtop. That is when I can fold.
So why not bet small? Because these weak tables usually see the river 3-handed, 4-handed and someone there might not be so passive and bluff overtop. If I bet 1/3rd or 1/2, most of the bluff raises stay away. If Villain raises he most certainly has better than a pair.
I figured this all out a few months back by bluffing in these situations and if I get called, far more often than not it’s literally a pair (any pair) on the river. So I learned and now it’s profitable. If my weak made is better than the river, bet and anyone who hits that river is paying me and anyone who doesn’t is folding. If the river beats my weak made, check-fold. The table has to be weak.
yeah, that tracks. Like I said, maybe if you bluff small they will call.
If my weak made is better than the river, bet and anyone who hits that river is paying me and anyone who doesn’t is folding. If the river beats my weak made, check-fold. The table has to be weak.
I still think we can do better. If their ranges are that weak, why not just bet 1.5-2x pot and win like 90% of the time?
You are playing down to your opponents’ level with this “bet small so the guy who spiked the river will call” stuff.
Well maybe I’ve just had some bad luck, but like I said, I learned this from experience. I would bluff-stab a river and at least half the time get called by someone who actually hit a 7 on the river for 4th pair or something. I lost so many times, that is how I learned (he can’t have it again - oh he does! third time’s the charm - @#$% he hit it again!).
If it’s heads-up it’s a bit different, but in a 3-way or 4-way (and limpy weak tables are almost always multi) someone will hit that river and they are not folding (unless you bet ridickaliss). So I turned it into an exploit - if I’m better than the river, bet and take their money, if not, let it go.
Right, I hear ya. I’m saying my assumption is you get called because of the relatively small sizing; you think you have “bad luck” but maybe all that’s really going on is that you are pricing your opponents into a call, and they are playing more or less correctly (because you more or less forced them to).