The video of why this thread was started. The 1st, main post.
I do. I just started, not long ago.
1 Like
Sorry I didnāt intend to come across condescending.
But I really mean what I said. Statistics is a very complex branch of Mathematics (I am a MS in Mathematics so I have a different approach to this topic). In general unless you interact intimately with that branch of Mathematics, you do not (and most people do not understand) it fully. And saying to someone that they are lucky over a large data set, communicates crucial lack of understanding of patterns within a large data set, and what role in statistically conclusions size of data set play. ā¦ Again, sorry, I donāt know how to communicate this concept differently, but I honestly have no intent of sounding condescending. I am hoping that whatever I say, adds value to people reading it.
Thatās great if you have the luxury of time to apply mathematics during a game, hardly anyone does. Itās instinct through repetition, guts and luck.
Not sure I understand. Are you saying knowing or not knowing when to fold on a flush draw to not make a negative EV call, or what size of the pot to bet to make a call from someone an negative EV call, is something you need time for? I mean thatās something you use Math to determine (around 3rd of pot to 1/2 of pot is the answer btw) and then you know for all time. And it has nothing to do with having a time during a game to know this.
I already told you. Cash game vs online is a whole different animal.
2 Likes
Thatās a different topic: Whether understanding stats and using it in the game is the only thing that makes a game, or are there other also important aspects of the game such as psychology. Of course Math is only an aspect. But if you gonna try to make an argument that one generally doesnāt have the time during a course of the game to make use of Stats understanding, then my post above addresses that.
I think this is a very important part of poker. Maybe, even 70 or 80 % of the game.
Thanks for your discussion @KileKing.
I donāt know about condescending but I suspect that you are making the maths sound more complicated than it needs to be.
At the end of the day, we only need to apply Bayes Theorem to estimate our probability of āwinningā any particular betting round and use the Kelly criterion to determine the amount to bet on each round.
The rest of this is for everyone 
Hereās a hint for people who ākeep losingā when they go all-in with AA or something similar (that is not true for anyone, at any place, at any time): If you are not dealt a royal flush on the flop, your probability of winning is < 1. The Kelly criterion tells us that you are on the sure and certain road to bankruptcy if you put your whole bankroll on the line.
This is a simple function of mathematics. If you persist in over-betting then you will and must go broke. Replay doesnāt have to do anything and the other players donāt have to do anything: the maths will take care of your bankroll in a way that you probably will not enjoy.
So, if you want to win, you need to do some off-table study. Bayes and Kelly will inform you of the amount that you should bring to the table and the optimum size for your bets and even when to not bet. Be warned: the Bayes Theorem is only as good as your estimates. If you over-estimate your āmad d00d blu77ing skllzā then Kelly will give you a completely inaccurate amount to bet. If you over-estimate the probability of your opponent(s) folding, the same applies. If you use inaccurate probabilities for having the winning hand, your calculations will be wrong.
This, obviously, applies to whatever and all of the criteria you choose to use in calculating your Bayesian probability. You should start off conservatively and adjust your Bayes calculations based on your observations. Plug your revised probability estimate into Kelly and, just like magic, you will get something close to the optimum amount to bet.
When you stop over-betting, you will stop losing. Easy.
Regards,
TA
slava Ukraini
1 Like
You say youāre a Poker Pro, you say youāre a Poker Coach but you said in the thread a few posts up that you just started to play cash games, thatās more than a confusing statement. I try and tell you about cash games related to the topic and you give us your resume on mathematics.
Iām done
I agree but I do think thereās an algorithm involved which could make some feel that way. This isnāt live poker youād see at a casino, as no algorithm BUT thereās a reason the term āriver-killā came about. Itās the āpoker godsāā¦
No need to lose patience, again we are here to grow the pool of knowledge. Everything can be cleared through simple communication. For example on my profile in Replay, it states all of what you listed, and I didnāt state it first. Someone else checked my profile and noted this. And in my profile it says I have played professionally in the early 2000ās, when the internet poker boomed. Then I stopped playing around 2008 and basically retired till recently, when I came back to play again. And I have started playing online cash again. A bit rusty, but Iāll get back into the groove. Why unnecessary tension? Letās just relax, and talk if it makes sense, or not if it doesnāt. Either way I hope people find the discussion useful.
1 Like
So why the drastic downswing in your hand history? Share the knowledge on that.
Can you expand on that question? What do you mean by drastic downswing in my hand history? Why I am playing less hands recently or ?
Think it is rigged to get players to play hands they should not play. Too many times I fold a bad hand(like an inside straight) only to see it hit. Too often for the rules of chance.
just been in the 50k played approx 30 hands including BB SB not won a single hand not 1??? how is this
Looks to me like you won 3 of the last 30, but zero of the last 20. How many did you fold?
Out of curiosity, I went and checked my last 30 - I won 3, chopped one. Not sure how many I folded (and Iām not going to re-watch all in order to count), but if I were a betting man (and I am), Iād guess I folded well over 20 of those 30 pre-flop - or post flop at the latest if I was able to just limp in and take a look.
I donāt think either result - yours or mine - is that particularly odd. Itās not so much about the number of wins, anyway - itās about the quality of those wins vs. the quality of your loses in terms of pot size that matters, right? Win big pots, lose small ones; and if you fold early enough (as most of us should probably be doing more than we think), itās like nothing happened.
folded maybe 3 x nore
it might not win very often for you but for me it wins most of the time.
it a matter of fact that the low hands or bad hands are the hands that win for me and because of that i only play the freerolls or the games I have won from playing freerolls. FACTS!