Is this supposed to be a call on the turn?
I had not seen the player get out of line and had no specific notes. They had a 460k bounty, 3rd paid 1.6m and 2nd paid 2.3m.
I can share my thoughts and reasoning after/if some replies.
which is the payout for 1st?
Preflop : You have to do all-in here, you are 11,5BB deep, the hand that we want to min raise are those who are not strong enough to go all-in and who will fold to a villain’s all in, or those who are so strong that they do not need protection at all (99+, AQs+) and want to be call by the trash who is forced to defend BB. A2s is too strong for raise/fold and not strong enough for minraise
I think turn is a snap call (if he donk bet this board with this hand he has way way too much bluff here, and you have equity against the value range with your FD + possibility for two pairs and three of kinds) i didnt even go to count the combos because thats so clear.
Pot oods is 42982/(42982*2+57600) = 29,94 % (didnt count the KO lol but no need)
Even against Kh9s who has top pair, you have 29.55% equity so if vilain has bluff (he show a bluff), this is a snap call. There is a bit of bubble factor but youre way too strong here to fold.
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Interesting that the hand replay doesn’t show the bounties like it does live. So there is a 700K pay jump for finishing 2nd and a 460K bounty in front of you if you call and win. You have a nut flush draw and an Ace so you have plenty of outs. The villian’s flop bet feels like a value bet cause he got a piece of the flop, likely an 9 or 8. Jamming on the turn is in line with the original story representing two pair or trips. You have already committed 40% of your stack to this pot and folding just gives the villian a massive chip advantage, you have a ton of outs that seems like a good spot to make a stand. And how happy were you when the villian flipped over a straight bluff.
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Yes, you were committed by the turn raise. The villain’s error who was in position was the all-in turn, should’ve waited for the river then the all-in since no possible flush.
Unbelievable odds of hitting a flush on here, IMO. I can;t believe you called the Flop raise with a pair of deuces but again so many players chase a 4 flush for their stack on here.
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1st =2.3m + 2.3m bounties as played
If I had<10bb I would have went all in pre however, I had just pressed above 10bb and no one had a greater stack at the time, so I was interested in playing a pot that wasn’t a shove in position if possible.
I only want to win.
The flop lead to then push on the turn was the action that didn’t really make a lot of sense to me. I prolly shove the flop if they don’t bet. When they bet ~2bb, I feel like I have to just call. Then they shove the turn. I think if I believed an 8 was a strong possibility, I could fold and still have 7bb to find a win. If they have an 8 I have like ~18% to win. If they had a 9 I only have like ~33% to win. If I win the pot I have like 5 to 1 chip lead and will likely win in the next hand or 2.
So if it wasn’t a bluff do you think it is worth risking any chance at a win with at best 33% to win? That is what I am most unsure about 
I wouldn’t let their bet stop you. It’s not beyond the realms of possibility that you get called by two over-cards but also get pocket 3-5’s to fold. Conversely, it might be very hard to get the rest of the chips in if you just call and you hit an A. I don’t see any compelling reason not to just jam on the flop - the small lead might be value fairly often, but it’s almost never going to be 2-pair or better. A2 is a better hand to jam than pocket pairs in that regard, because you block the only set they’re realistically likely to have.
Specific to this MTT situation I would say what hands do they lead with on the flop?
10 9s flip
98s flip
A9 43/57 behind
A8 43/57
33-77 flip
88 29/71
99 29/71
J10s 71/29 if hearts 56/44
KQh 81/19
and all random bluffs
If I all in the flop I push out all random bluffs and keep in all of the hands above.
Even if I fold the turn to an unknown card, its 7bb, 16bb and 5bb, not over. Not that I could think of many turn cards that I would fold to, I think an 8 or a 9 is probably the only ones that would make me think. I think they actually check back the turn a fair amount of times when its not a bluff or a set on the flop, just because of how close the stack sizes are with 3 left, there is only 28bb in play.
I think shoving the pot on the flop with idea that this pot is basically for the win is the correct answer but I am not sure calling the turn really was. idk
edit: I may have understated how passive I perceive the villain is playing
didnt even think of the all-in because that was not the question, but i think thats very interesting so we have to do a deep analysis.
what do you think villain will defend preflop ? thats necessary to know if jam can take value or protection against the range or its not good. Because i can’t take a theorical range against a guy who donk a 9high board, 0% lead here in theory