A Visual Aid for the Conspiracy Theorists

Just so you understand, a gut shot draw on the river vs a set has a nine percent chance of hitting.

Rounding up to ten percent, notice how easily your brain registers the ten bad results in both spreadsheets, but ignores the 90 good ones.

Hope this helps.

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It does not help. Nothing helps. I don’t think I’ve changed a single one of their minds on this topic in over a year of posting.

I give up on them. I’m also done being polite. They are loud idiots and I will tell them so to their face.

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It’s all about egos.

If one cares about improving one’s game and playing as well as one can, when one’s losing one studies and looks for leaks in one’s game.

If one just wants to chuff themselves with wins and a thick bankroll, when one’s losing one looks for things to blame. Couldn’t possibly be errors in play, ohhh nooo.

Weak players with bruised egos.

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-bruised egos
-a fundamental lack of understanding about randomness, statistics, and cards
-a general distrust of computers/tech
-pre-existing comfort with “conspiracy theory” type thinking

I expect there is significant overlap between the group that says “the deals are rigged” and the group that sees housing prices go up and says “they” are raising prices

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95% of it is these first 2. And I can add laziness when it comes to studying, which relates to both of those points. “I’m fairly smart, it’s not MMA and I have a brain so playing cards shouldn’t be difficult. Studying schmudying,” (ego) and, “my connected 2-pair flops are always getting sucked out by straights, this shouldn’t happen!” (not understanding poker odds/math).

Study. Then put the study into practice. Don’t just keep playing the same old way if you keep losing when you think you shouldn’t be. Dead giveaway that you have a leak.

I actually think the last thing you wrote is also a big part of the cognitive dissonance: people don’t realize how often they will still lose even if their strategy is in fact winning long-term

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So our friend @smooth99 showed up at my table in a ticket satellite today. He now has to tell us all how unrandom his deals were today - unrandom in his favor. ; )

Yep, problem is Donks will be Donks n chase us 2 the river and ocean if they could:)…They have no idea of odds n probably do not care—this is why i love them:).

I see it EVERY day in cash games- just like here—bad players who lose say" it is fixed or not random " same ppl. every day complaining-----Example, a guy i play with called me a " donky-lucky-bot today lol—He slowed played pocket A’s so of course i called my Q-9 suited in the small blind (no raise at all from him) and flop gives me q’s ( he min. bet ) and i turn a set and then call his big bet lol…I do love playing with him though:).

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@napkin_holder

Unsure of your point in this post. But I only recall us tangling twice in this tourney. The first time, you folded after your 2nd raise and I re-raised you. It happened so quickly, you must of had your finger on the fold button at the time. The 2nd time, all I can say is I remember I became the chip leader from it.

There’s an old poker saying which pretty much goes:

When a Newbie with chips meets an Experienced player at a table, the Experienced player ALWAYS leaves with the chips and the Newbie leaves with the experience.

Question is, did you learn anything and thanks for the Helping Hand Endorsement?

Put me down all you like. You have 46 million in 12 years. I have 15 million in 7 months.

I did not helping hand endorse you. That wasn’t me.

The main thing here is that you still have not addressed my post. The way that you are swagger talking me, sounds like you took us all to school. Are you willing to admit that luck was heavily in your favor throughout that tournament, not just against me but against everyone else as well?

That really means nothing in case you didn’t know. It’s how one plays against each other at the same table which counts.

Appears, you didn’t learn anything from the encounter.

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Isn’t this what every player who loses ALWAYS says?

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FYI, I didn’t just make up that poker saying, it’s been around for some time. I’ve tried starting some of my own Quotes, but they never got any traction. I’m guessing no one from those Poker Magazines were ever around to hear them.

Well it is certainly what YOU always say when YOU lose. ; )

Now you won, it was all skill then?

And please, PLEASE, tell me what I haven’t learned.

I can honestly say that I’ve never ever complained when I lost a hand because it was always my decision to call the raise.

Well off hand I’d say, you keep posting in this thread for some reason.

You complain on this forum about the deals on Replay going against you constantly.

Soooo … nothing.