There are certain spots where I’m supposed to bluff, but it NEVER seems to work. Specifically, I ALWAYS seem to run into the stone cold nuts, or something close to it. What is going on?? I think I have the answer!
My opponents are uniformly too loose in general, and too tight when playing big pots. That is to say, if they call a raise from UTG they could totally have Q9 at some frequency—but if they’re betting 70-100% pot on flop and turn on QQJ9, you KNOW they have Qx or better. And they will NEVER have, say, ATs for a semi-bluff.
A lot of the spots where I am “supposed” to bluff them big involve having a missed draw, or barreling off in a 3bet pot when I don’t connect on the flop. The problem is, I think in either of those scenarios, this type of opponent will just HAVE IT an overwhelming % of the time. They didn’t continue against my cbet because their hand has equity and they don’t want to be exploited; they continued because they hit the flop. They didn’t continue against my draw with some speculative hand of their own; they continued because they hit the flop, and maybe even improved on the turn.
There are some very thinky players who will fold a strong made hand if you do a good job choosing a line that conveys you can beat that hand. But mostly, players just aren’t folding the good stuff unless you go HUGE. Like, “I bet 60% because if I had the nut flush, I would really want you to call” doesn’t move the needle for these guys. They just see a bet that’s not scary big, and they still have top pair. You’re getting snapped off.
I think I will try to be less dogmatic about these spots going forward. I tend to keep stubbornly bluffing in these spots because “it should work” and it frustrates me that my weak-tight opponents get to just realize their equity so dang often. But there are so many other spots where they massively overfold—like any time they don’t have top pair, pretty much. I should bluff more in those spots and give up more when action makes it clear that Villain has flopped TP or better, unless the runout is SUPER wet.