after the flop, i put him on a straight or flush draw. do you call the preflop raise with that small a pair? should the fact that he called have been a tell? anyway, i didn’t want him to draw out, so i shoved.
i’m holding pK
not a lucky hand for me, but was the strategy flawed?
looking back, i noticed i had 10 outs for the river. if i x2, do i have a hand equality of 20, or is that just part of the calculation?
Preflop
Your raise was fine - both the fact that you raised and the size that you used.
With Villain’s specific holding (AA) he should be raising himself.
Flop
When Villain checks to you, it likely means nothing - most players are going to check all of their hands since you raised preflop. So I don’t think that you can put him so specifically on the straight or flush draws that you mentioned, although those are certainly possible. He can also easily have things like A8, A7, T8, 98 and so on - hands that you have crushed but will call a bet or two from you.
So, you have a big overpair, you definitely want to be betting this board, and the only question is the size to use.
When you are considering the size of bet, you should be thinking “what worse hands can call my bet?” You want to let players with worse hands call you when you have a good hand - that’s the whole point of having a good hand! If they have a draw, you want to charge them to try to get there, not have them fold right away. A good size might be about two-thirds of the pot in this situation.
The problem with jamming all in is that it lets your opponent play perfectly against you. He can easily fold all of his draws and single pair hands like A8, while he’ll call if he has a set (he can easily have 88, 77, 55) or 2 pairs (87) and fold everything else. So he folds everything you beat and calls with only things that beat you - clearly this is a bad result for you.
I think i see what you’re saying. I need to raise enough to get him off his draws. Then, if he calls, i can assume he’s betting his hand, as is, or he’s bluffing.
about outs…the only 2 that would win it for me were Ks. however, a 4, or 9, on the river, would have filled the board, and sliced the pot. Are those considered outs, or even considered at all?
Confirmed… you were a fish in this hand… 
Pre flop is good, like the sizing 4x over the limper. In these games at 100/200 you could even be going with really exploitative sizing and getting as much as 6-8x.
This really isn’t a great flop for your hand, I would want to be checking back this flop a good amount of the time. There are a lot of bad turns that can come and they’re are for one reason or another going to prevent you from getting 3 streets of value. They’ll either improve V, or be scare cards for you as well as V. That being said I’m okay with betting as long as we aren’t going to go nuts paying this guy off if he starts x/r you. We’ll have to x back a lot of turns and evaluate rivers if he bets.
Your shove on the flop I think tacos covered pretty well. Special emphasis on charging for draws. We do want to give our opponents bad pricing for playing there draws, that doesn’t necessarily mean folding them out. What we want to be doing in every spot is allowing our opponents rope to make mistakes, this is how we profit. We don’t want to be doing things that make them play better and definitely don’t want to give them paths to playing perfectly. It’s tricky, but being involved in strategy threads and sharing your HH’s with people that love to talk strat and don’t mind sharing is the best way to improve (well, outside of volume at the tables, there is no sub for experience) so your moving in the right direction.
Cheers @waidus... PS I sent you a friend request...
PS2x good luck at the tables!
Waidus, I myself do not count splits as outs, But I also don’t shove all-in unless I’m short stacked, due to the many players that either don’t know about value or don’t care about it. Even if you have the nuts at the flop I don’t shove, I will often check forcing someone to raise, if they only check I have a better feel of a large raise at river, but I suggest never pushing unless you are under 10x the big blind on any poker site. This may be different in a live game where you can see their neck veins or eyes, or some other tell. but yes, You were a bit of a guppy in this review. Hope I helped…
Careful @waidus. Everybody who reads this now knows they can bluff you off KK.
This is one of those “Results Dictate Advice” cases I talked about on another thread.
They know he had AA so they skew their advice for minimum damage.
If they knew he had QQ they would advise huge bets and no folding.
You caught the bad luck of KK v. AA and went bust. It happens. If you are only willing to go all in with the nuts you will be bluffed off winning hands regularly on a free site.
i think i’m gonna drop the ‘shove to stop their draw’ strategy with AA/KK. like taco said, the right sizing could do the same thing, without losing someone who might really like their top pair J or Q. guess it’s back to shoving preflop, or bet 'em til you’re beat. (or odds on, you win)
i’m at the stage of my game where i’m starting to really see the importance of sizing, and how much value i’m losing. this is sure to lead to more elementary questions. many thanks to the folks who take the time to dumb it down for me, or set me straight on stuff. even when it’s “yep, waid, you really are a fish”. LOL
a little later, i played a hand that was almost a mirror image of the one i posted. drier board, but still ended with my AA getting V’s stack. i image for most beginners, it’s hard to lay down KK. (except for me, of course)
i agree about the results thing. it’s kinda like watching the 93o you just folded, flop a boat, and you think you maybe should expand your range. dayman has a thread where he withholds the outcome, until after a few analysis. to break down the strategy of a hand, results are irrelevant, but when playing poker, results (the money you walk out with) is everything.
i’d like to take this time to say that it is true. i lay down pocket kings in a heartbeat, when pressured. i recommend robust betting, should the situation arise.
So I’m going to say yes to this, some people are too influenced by results to give an objective analysis. This is why I always suggest we post our hand histories looking for impartial judgement without posting results. That being said I think there are several players posting regularly in these forums who are absolutely able to do this, I hope, and believe I’m one of them.
OTTH… In my analysis of this hand history, and that of @love2eattacos, the villains hand was not at all a consideration for our input. I don’t care if V had AA or QQ, as a matter of fact I think that he should be folding or calling depending on his tendencies roughly the same amount of times. This would make them irrelevant to analysis because they would wash. I considered how @waidus should be playing this hand against V’s entire range. Now if we really want to get into the meat of analyzing these hand histories we should be discussing how hero’s entire range should be playing vs opponents entire range. I’ve done this some and I think I’ll start doing it exclusively. Hands just don’t matter much anymore in today’s NLHE landscape.
Cheers!
Your profits are bound to skyrocket when you’ve giving up this mentality of shipping to protect AA for example. You’ll be amazed at how much value you’ll gain from your strong hands when you start allowing your opponents to keep putting chips in with worse hands. Sometimes you lose but more often you win and by sizing your bets correctly you give them more opportunities to lose more rather than have them play perfectly against you. Just remember ANY bet that has them fold EVERYTHING you beat but call with EVERYTHING that you lose to is a bad bet.
Preflop, your raise was just fine. 8BB isn’t immense relative to the size of the stacks at this table, and that you got a call here from the big stack would be reasonable, since they can afford to throw away 800 chips on the off chance that you’re just trying to steal, although if they suspected that they should have raised you, especially with AA.
Their behavior is a little bit slippery. Limping AA is unconventional. Limp-raising would have made sense, maybe they only called here because your raise was so big. Maybe they did it to keep concealing their strength so you’d continue feeling comfortable betting. When you’re holding AA, you want your opponent to feel comfortable betting and loose as possible.
I don’t see the point of shoving the flop. The flop is terrible for you. It does nothing for you, and not that I’d have called with the cards that would have given me a straight here, but it’s possible your opponent could have one, though very unlikely.
It’s a safe enough flop that I think you should have lead with it, but why shove? The only call here is going to be a hand that beats you, and it really reads like a bluff. Which, granted, if your opponent is holding something weaker than you, QQ on down, maybe you want them thinking you’re bluffing so they’ll call. But it’s not really the best putting yourself at risk like that, with the turn and river to come, and your hand still unimproved from preflop.
You could have bet 2/3x - 1.5x pot and gotten the same effect, with less risk. If you get called, and of course here you would, you could still get away from the hand, slow down, or try barrelling a second time, re-evaluating your situation depending on what information the Turn card gives you. Another King? Hit that bet button. The card that landed? Well, I’d slow down and consider mucking the Kings.
Dumping KK (or AA for that matter) isn’t easy to do, but sometimes it does get beat. Either running into AA, or when your opponent hits 2-pair or better and your own hand doesn’t improve. When it happens, you need to be able to do it.