What is Floppasauras meant to call with here? Top 4 pays.
I’d imagine the potential to knock out 3 players and immediately burst the bubble, along with the pot odds, make this a very lucrative continue.
That said, it’s hard to have much equity with most hands, and it’s not an insignificant chunk of Flopp’s stack.
That said, he can’t bust and will still have a playable stack if he loses. If he wins, his chances of 1st just skyrocketed.
He maybe had total crap like 73o or something.
Also, 3 players on the bubble with comparable stacks. If top Villain wins, two guys felt and he gets paid 3rd place or better. If middle Villain wins, he gets paid 4th or better and top Villain is micro. If small Villain wins, he doesn’t get paid yet but 2 players are left micro. Even if he gets into this with AA and gets sucked out (and he would be 4-handed, suckout chances triple), he donates 1/3rd of his chips to a small stack and his chances of winning drop significantly.
If he has JJ, QQ, KK, AA he may have called, we know he is not afraid to gamble, but with almost a guarantee to be in the money, three players all in, means someone has a pair, how big well that was to be seen, as it turned out you made a set and he smelled like roses. I would fold AK and down in that spot. The almost Piranha like frenzy that was happening pre bubble clearly caused spiking testosterone IMO one of those hands should not have been in there.
I don’t speak your poker lingo, but I do carry a big stick.
Fair considerations @_Rain which is why I frame this in terms of ICM…
…but crucially! All 3 players are on less than 3 big blinds. Chipleader and Flopp have considerably more, so any of those players will be hard pressed to “wait it out” with the blinds coming around quickly in 4-handed play.
And from a chipEV standpoint it is an extra 4.9k to win 27k… very hard to ever get those kinds of odds, with no further exposure possible as all players will be all-in… so it’s just direct equity.
I think it could be a surprisingly wide spot for Flopp’s seat.
I get the any A’s any K any pair in your ICM scenario, and logically Floppy should have called, but add the human element that things at any given time are not what they should be or may not be, I think he made the right choice, I don’t think any of you made a bad play, but three is a crowd when on the bubble, why risk it when two already are going all in. I rarely see a three way all in at bubble, EV ICM or not.
I think that’s what makes this such a fun spot: surely there are some hands that are obviously profitable for Flopp to call with (big pairs, AK/AQ) and some that seem futile to even try (26o).
Where’s the line between the two groups?
My intuition is that it may be closer to the junk side of the spectrum than one might think, but I could be wrong and ICM could still slap me in the face and say “only call with reasonably good stuff!”
True and he is looking at the big picture, what will he have to go against me or the winner of the 3 way all in next hand, you know I am not nice with a big stack, so he is playing chess out 5 moves.
Here’s the interesting question. What if it were only 2 small all-ins on the bubble?
If that is the case then I think you have a very strong argument for Floppy to loosen up. But with 3? It’s 3 times the chance of getting sucked out and not to mention with no tank it’s kinda wtf moment that you err on the side of caution?
@Pos111 I’m watching the replay and I can see it coming and I’m just internally screaming “no. no! NNOOOOOOOOOOO!”
The chat during the hand made it extra painful/weird in the moment.
@Pos111 Chelsea is my favorite for oh so many reasons <3
Isn’t this a trivial call with any 2 cards?
We can’t be far off having the direct equity to call given the pot odds, and there’s actually very little ICM risk. There’s only one situation where someone doesn’t bust, and that’s very unlikely, so we’re basically guaranteed to be in the money. If we fold or call and lose we just about always end up with the 3rd largest stack. If we call and win we’re guaranteed 2nd place and now have a playable stack. Call essentially seems like a freeroll to me.
@lihiue that’s what I was thinking!
I ask him, and his response was just as I thought.
i had AJo but i know it was good fold b/c figured 3 all ins at least 1 has pockets and 1 has a bullet at least