ICM = Independent Chip Model
Basically the idea that in a tournament, survival has value in itself—30k chips may give you a better chance of winning than 1 chip, but as long as you have 1 chip, your potential outcome is still anywhere from your current position to 1st place.
On the bubble, or after the bubble—when every additional player knocked out increases our payout (“laddering up”)—ICM can lead to some configurations where we have to play pretty tight to avoid a disastrous outcome. I’ve mentioned this elsewhere, but a hand from a few minutes ago provides a really nice illustration:
Making this play with QT isn’t bad in a vacuum; we’re 4-handed, after all. But here, I had ONE BIG BLIND left in my stack! If StinkyHerb had waited at most 2 more hands, it’s quite likely I would have busted, securing at least 3rd place for Herb. Instead he put his entire stack at risk (5-6 bb… short, but still very good odds of surviving longer than the super short stack!) with a speculative holding.
If Herb’s main goal is to win 1st and he is indifferent to any other placing after making the money, more power to him… but otherwise, this play was probably a significant error as he allowed someone who was all but dead to finish ahead of him, in a situation where he did not have to commit his stack.
Paying attention to ICM considerations at the final table can have a big impact on our long-run ROI 