Should, would, Donk Bad beat out, but I'll take 3rd in 20k buy in 1.2 mil GTD

Replay Poker Poker Discussion
21

He was a tight enough player, raising 93, as long as dont do it too often wouldnt be bad. Also if I was a bad player, super loose, too passive postflop, smaller stack, etc, calling with 93 to then try to take away the pot postflop wouldnt be the worst either.

Me, I’m probably folding that 93 preflop, if I only had 500k. I might raise 93 suited from the button, if I had BIG stack, and if was getting semi card dead, and if I had good image, otherwise I am folding 93 suited, and thats part of why I have the good table image to exploit, use, etc.

Limping 93 suited, I wouldnt limp 93 suited ob button, unless I had good table image, BIG STACK, semi card dead, a small stack to left, that I could semi trap, monster hand mine, stack, etc, because 2 pair 9 and 3 would be hidden, disguised, and usually 93 easily folded postflop, if facing a raise, not hit anything, not able to bluff in a good spot, etc.

No way would I call 4x bb semi Iso, semi queeze, with 93 suited. Even if I thought I was being bullied by the BIG STACK, I might, if I have a NIT image, if the other player does not have NIT image, once in blue moon, reraise all in with 93 suited, then after folded to, show it, rub it in, then do it again with something good to get called, doubled up.

Given the situation, 93 suited shouldnt have called 4 x bb preflop raise, and I wouldnt have, etc.

Postflop, considering my Image, 93 suited was a 50/50 +EV/-EV call, and Turn was a Razor thin, Debateable, questionably semi bad, marginal, etc, call that he could have, maybe even should have folded. I should have betted 1/4 to 1/3 on flop instead of 1/2, and then if no possible flush does not hit turn, then JAM ALL IN turn, and Donk might have folded if done that.

As far as 98 suited, thats definitely a raise 3 handed, end of tournament. And 98 suited would be a ok limp in, altho better to raise it. And 98 suited would be a razor thin 50.5/49.5 +EV call preflop given his stack size. Better would be a reraise all in, if he thinks Im bullying him with light range. I have done that before and used that to chip up.

98 suited, and 93 suited tho both suited, 9 high, 98 suited is way better then 93 suited, and has more potential postflop playability, equity, implied odds, etc, then 93 suited.

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Yeah, I wasn’t saying we should change our play to avoid B). It wasn’t really meant to be a comment about strategy, just a reflection on mindset.

I agree it’s very important to note player profiles as you get more experience with the same opponents, and adjust accordingly.

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I like your hypothetical about using a smaller flop cbet to leave more to play for on the turn. It’s a great exploit when you think your opponent’s range is draw heavy, and when they’re unlikely to try to punish your smaller sizing with a semi-bluff raise on the flop.

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I did look it up as close as I could get it, and open raising 93o loses 0.13bb, where 98s wins 0.16bb. The thing is, your opponent actually had 96s, and that is a plus EV open (just). Calling your raise with 96s, or even 98s for that matter, once the small blind calls in between is definitely a mistake, but probably not a huge one. Closest I could get was raise/call/6bb/call, which is losing 1.6bb, but limp/complete/4bb/call won’t be as bad. It’s still obviously not good, but if that was the worst play I’d ever made, I’d be fairly pleased.

I think you’re right to identify the flop bet as the thing you could have done better. 1/4 to 1/3 pot is better here for a lot of reasons - the main one being that the hands you’re going to up against the most are the low pocket pairs, and you really want to string those along and get them pot committed. There’s also just no reason to go larger.

I actually like their turn call. The second K reduces a lot of your value combos, they already beat your bluffs and have the flush outs if they are behind. I still think they should just shove on that flop, but they have flopped a pair so you can also make a case for just calling, hoping for it to go check/check on the turn, or make the flush.

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Side note that cbetting 1/4-1/3 is such a strong play against most Replay MTT pools. In my experience, with this sizing you will often weirdly get more folds than you should from hands that should continue, and more calls than you should from hands that probably should not continue.

You can play later streets aggressively quite profitably, as many players will not have the discipline to just keep check-calling with hands that are beating you when you use this small size. They will raise with something strong and let you know you are beat, or call with something marginal and effectively say “my hand sucks, please take the pot away on the turn or river.”