i have been in a downswing for about a month right now. and lost an insane amount of chips. i was in 140 million and am in 500k right now!
this started when i suddenly got an insane amount of bad luck (happened only once before in this size).
also have to say that i played bad sometimes like tilting and poor bankroll management from time to time.
did’nt knew for sure if something was wrong with me only, or that something is also happening in this site until today.
i started a tournament and one player asked me what happened to my chipstack, i told what i’m telling here now, one player reacted and said that she had got the exact same problem and also for a month! very shortly after that even another player told that he was having the exact same problem and also for about a month!
so you get that something has to be happening right now and that this isn’t just a regular downswing.
so my question is: can you please look where/what this glitch is and cure it please?
i really like playing here, and was really happy i got such an extremely big bankroll, now it’s almost all gone and there are probably more players like me still suffering on this glitch, so can you please help us all before the glitch will let us lose all our chips?
Hey, just to make sure I’m following, you think there may be a bug that’s leading to chips going missing? This definitely isn’t something we’ve heard of, so please let me know if I’m misunderstanding in any way.
If you or anyone else thinks that chips have disappeared, please get in touch with us at support@replaypoker.com. I don’t think this is possible, and we can likely walk you through where the chips went by going through your transactions page with you, but I do want to make sure we investigate anything that looks off to ensure that everything’s working properly.
what is happening is indeed that we lose chips, but not directly.
it is that we just keep losing because of extremely much bad luck (way more then some regular downswing everyone sometimes have).
and if it would be just only me, then it would be only strange, but could’nt know for sure it would be just an extreme downswing, and only assume it is.
but now i heard that on just one table even 2 other players had the exact same problem, and this all started on the exact same moment. which obviously can’t be only a coincidence.
i shall look if i can find one of these 2 players and ask them if they want to react on this forum.
Not to be negative, but I have seen you playing at the 100k/200k, 50k/100k, and 20k/40k tables, and even with a bankroll of 150m, those first two stakes are too high to survive the variance. I tried to do something similar once with a bankroll of 70m, and I was down to under 30m in a couple of hours. Another hour, and I would have been down to 0. There is so much variance in poker that even a short downswing (a few hundred hands) can cost millions and millions of chips at those stakes. I can lose 10m chips from a modest downswing while playing conservatively at 20k/40k, so it is definitely possible to lose hundreds of millions. It actually happens fairly often. Many pros have gone on similar runs and gone broke in real-money poker.
i agree with you completely that i have used poor bankroll management and should’nt had done that.
but the thing is, it did speedened up the process and made me lose much more chips then if i would’nt done it that bad. but the other 2 people had the exact same problem, they have more chips then me now because they haven’t made this stupid mistakes i did, but the core problem it exactly the same. and that is losing extremely much in way of bad luck for a month (and of course bad luck and downswings are completely normal, but for that long it is quite rare). but the real thing that proves that something is happening, is that they had the exact same problem on the exact same moment. which obviously can’t be just an coincidence.
thanks however for sharing your thoughts about this.
The probability of at least 3 players on replay having an extreme downswing of bad luck at the same time while playing against the best players on replay? I’d say 100%. The probability that at least 100 replay players currently think they are in the middle of a huge downswing? Also 100%. Poker is full of long and short streaks of good and bad luck. When you buy in for 12m with 80m left behind, you are about 8 unlucky hands away from being broke.
How many hands did you play in that month? I play extremely conservatively (I’d say I’ve been all in behind in full stakes ring about 10 times in many thousands of hands, meaning id rather make some bad folds than increase my variance trying to make good calls), and I lost about 37m in about 200-300 hands of high stakes. I didn’t run well and my opponents were good. Especially because these games tend to be short handed, it is easy to swing very dramatically heads up.
Good bankroll management says that you should have between 80m and 120m just to start playing 20k/40k and between 240m and 400m to play 50k/100k. Of course this isn’t real money, so it’s ok to take added risks, but the variance can take all your chips. And that is saying nothing about the ability of the players in those games… You must be a good player for replay to get that many chips, so you should have no problem building back up. It’s just a tedious process when using bankroll management.
yiazmat,
I have found that when I am in a severe streak of bad luck, one of two strategies usually works to end it.
Don’t play for a couple weeks. That seems to reset things.
If you don’t wanna sit out, bet very aggressively every third hand for awhile. That also seems to change things up computer-wise. And I don’t mean just double your raises. Take a hand you would normally fold or limp and raise 10 times the big blind. Then wait 2 hands and do it again. I do this at small buy-in tourneys so I don’t take too big of a hit on my bankroll. You will get knocked out of those tourneys early but after you do this a dozen or so hands the horrendous luck will usually end and you will start seeing normal action again.
I’ve also seen players try what I call ‘Slot Machine Poker’.
You bet the minimum on every card…no exceptions. You call every bet or raise unless it is more than twice the BB and you are clearly beat. Otherwise you never fold.
I haven’t tried that one but I’ve seen others do it for over 20 minutes and be the chip leader at their table. Its best to use this strategy at 4 or 6 person tables in low but-in MTT’s
It seems like betting big and/or betting often pleases the Replay Poker Gods.
i get what you are saying and you are totally right about it, but the thing is those 3 or even 100 players compared to replay are more then 1000000 players so it’s a ratio of 10000:1 players. in that case there are probably even much more then that. but the other 2 people who had this were all on the same table. and that means it isn’t a ratio of 10000:1 but a ratio of 2:1 (or 1 on 3). and i know every table shall have more and less bad luck streaks, but even if this is one of those extreme cases 2:1 to have exact the same thing on exact the same time which also is something that’s very rare to begin with, is extremely odd at least.
i have played every day except for 1 straight week hoping this effect would wore off (did’nt happen however), and from monday-thursday i play very short and in my weekend what is friday-sunday i play quite a lot.
if you mean playing hands like VPIP instead of playing in general, then this are the facts: when im in full ring, i play about 20% of hands of which most are raised hands, limps are rare. and loosen up depending on the amount of players and of course several other circumstances. in my base play i like to play TAG but probably slightly more loose then most TAG (for example i might raise A10o utg sometimes and like to bluff when the situation seems right).
besides of all this you also have to know that this did’nt all happened on these elite stakes. i did liked to play them because i like more of a challenge, and won a lot in them before the downswing, but when i got lower i did moved down in stakes and still kept losing, this process continued and did moved down and down all the way to the stakes i’m in now, and still keep losing in those medium stakes. so i have played a lot, but lost much into the long term bad luck streak.
fully agreed with you in this part. in ring games i would indeed prefer about 20 buy-ins. i did however sometimes used 10 buy-ins and in more extreme cases even 5.
i defenitely should’nt have done this but did anyway for some reason.
at last i only want to say that the odd part is in the fact that 3/9 people all got the same super rare problem and it all started on the exact same moment. but i also want to say that i do agree with most your points and really appreciate mentioning them.
if you start doing this, odds are that you will lose the rest of your chips, only faster than before
if you are going to start raising crap to 10BB’s, why do anything rational afterwards? Just keep shoving blindly and you are certain to make all your chips back (not).
The entire premise here seems to be that there is a glitch in the coding that can be spoofed. If you are going to go with the conspiracy thing, then I guess this “remedy” is as good as any other. If you are a rational human being and don’t make your hats out of tinfoil, I’d simply suggest taking a break until you aren’t so tilty and go back to work with the solid play and management that got you to 150 million in the first place.
after about how much times doing this will it go back to normal?
the 10BB raise thing with crap, if you get resitance do i need to fold or raise/shove it?
As I said, try either 2 weeks without logging on…or try the wacky raise strategy at least a dozen times. Then play your normal game for a few tourneys to see if your bad streak is over.
After the 10BB raise play it however you want. The assumption behind this strategy is the the large raises, in and of themselves, trick the ghost in the machine.
Let me explain my thinking a little more. Because I know many people are reading this as the dumbest thing they have ever heard lol.
I perceive a difference between a typical down streak and a long-term horrendously unlucky losing streak that you are describing. The former is to be expected in any game. I don’t consider a few consecutive bad beats and a few early tourney exits to be anything other than normal fluctuations.
But when you get several weeks of almost constant bad cards, with the occasional good hand that almost always gets beat by a slightly better hand…its time to examine the possible reasons.
They could be:
You are playing badly. The solution to this is to rededicate yourself to playing solid poker taking into consideration the table size and the competition.
There is a ghost in the machine. The solution to this is to outsmart the machine…to beat the system
Let me give an example.
I signed up with MediaCom for a 2 year contract for TV, internet and a landline phone. They gave me a new customer discount. After 2 years my rates went up. I was paying $39.95 for a landline phone I didn’t really need. I called MediaCom and asked them for a reduced rate on the phone. They said no. I emailed their customer service dept asking for the same thing and telling them I would drop the phone if I had to pay more than $25 per month for it. They said no. After about 6 months of this I dropped the phone service.
Within 60 days I started getting offers from MediaCom offering my phone service for $9.95 per month. That was 3 years ago and they are still sending me those offers.
The point is…MediaCom has a ‘system’ that only gives you cheap phone service if you aren’t currently a phone customer. If I had known this, I would have manipulated the system to get $9.95 phone service immediately after my 2-year contract ended instead of paying an inflated rate for so long.
Is there a ghost in the machine here?
I don’t know.
But I do know this. None of the customer service reps at MediaCom told me that the surefire way to get cheap phone service was to cancel my service and wait for the computer generated “luck” that was built into the system.
Poker is a great game. It is more than probabilities and mathematics.
It is observation and intuition.
It is reading others, seeing patterns and making adjustments.
It is patience and self-improvement.
You will get plenty of advice from others based on statistical probabilities.
But remember, you are playing against humans on a system designed by humans.
And all humans err. They all have tendencies, They all have secrets and they all are influenced by emotion. They all are imperfect. And everything they create, even a computer program, is imperfect, whether that imperfection is intentional or unintentional.
If you don’t believe your extreme losing streak is explained by math, or by your own poor play, consider other possibilities and try my suggestions. If you do, report back here on the results, and let the chips fall where they may…so to speak.
hi warlock, i don’t mean to be rude, but i think you have misread many points on the forum:
i get that this is the worst strategy possible to win chips, but the guy that mentioned this already said this is meant to possibly destroy the bug, not to win chips. he also said that he did this in the lowest stakes to minimise losses. i don’t know if it works, but it is really worth it imo to risk maybe 10k chips to get a return of millions in the long term. and if it don’t work 10k i am defenitely willing to give to give it a try.
first of all i want to say that i have never ever even mentioned conspiracy, rigged, cheats, fake or anything in this idea. all i said was that i expect that there is some kind of glitch that makes this happen. i have seen a lot of things of replay why suspecting them of being rigged would really be the last thing i would do: * quotes of me have been added, * i have been player of the month once, * replay have even took the time and effort to ship me a card and a gift for the things i have tried to do to help on the forums * they always try to help good and quickly if i or someone else have a question on the forums * even in this forum you can see they took me serious immediately and responded to help after a few minutes.
besides of all this what benefit would it gave them anyway to scare people away.
so you can see that i have many reasons to trust replay.
and shoving a dagger in the back of replay by acting like they are rigged or something would be really the last thing i would do.
in the basic line this is a good idea and i will defenitely try it. but as i already have mentioned in the forum. i know i have been really stupid by this tilting and poor bankroll management. but this did increase and speed up the problem but isn’t the core problem. also i have already explained the reason why i suspect something strange is happening. and i have based it all on facts, not emotion so this also proves i did’nt posted this just because i was on tilt.
at last i also want to make sure you won’t get the wrong idea by this post. because i do appreciate that you are trying to help, i only want to make things clear with this post so you and the other people won’t get the wrong idea about me and the problem.
I did not think you were rude at all. I was being a bit snarky and hope you didn’t take it the wrong way either.
I’ve had bad runs before and it feels like something is definitely wrong with the game when that happens. When it goes on for a long time, its simply miserable because not only does the game become less enjoyable but you also start altering your good play in an attempt to compensate and that usually leads to even worse results. This was the pitfall I was trying to persuade you to avoid.
I do wish you the best of luck and hope the streak ends soon. I just don’t put any stock whatsoever in the ghost in the machine thing. It seems far fetched to me at the very least. However, do whatever it is you think you need to do to get back to enjoying the game and the site. I enjoy your posts on the Forum and once again I hope you did not take offense to my last post.
np, thanks for understanding the points i tried to make. same counts for your point, i get what you are trying to tell and i won’t take it the wrong way, thanks for helping.[quote=“1Warlock, post:17, topic:5973”]
I’ve had bad runs before and it feels like something is definitely wrong with the game when that happens. When it goes on for a long time, its simply miserable because not only does the game become less enjoyable but you also start altering your good play in an attempt to compensate and that usually leads to even worse results. This was the pitfall I was trying to persuade you to avoid.
[/quote]
in fact this is exactly the cycle i’m in. the only difference is that when i’m getting out of tilt (often the next day when i was in one) i get back to my original play and even then it just keeps happening again, and it’s going that way all the time since i’m in this downswing. this pitfall you talk about is also happening, but instead of 1 big pitfall it’s more like several smaller ones. but it keeps coming back because the bad luck streak won’t go over.
thank you, i will give it a try and if it won’t work at least i’ll know, i have alreay lost more then 139,7 million (about 99,8% of my entire bankroll ) so 10k i can lose too.
i guess this “ghost” he talks about is not literally a ghost but some metaphor for the bug/glitch thing. but you get i’m quite desperate to do at least something that might work to solve this. and if it won’t work it won’t be much of a harm to my roll, while this thing that’s happening absolutely is.
tyvm for mentioning these things, and i don’t take offence at all, i know you are trying to help me so thank you very much for trying.
i have thought about all advises, and no matter if there is a glitch or not, everyone says that a break is probably the best option. so i think that’s is the best option to do. thx for all the advises so far.
i will collect my daily chips and be on the forums sometimes, but i’ll assume that won’t be much of a problem.
if i don’t forget, i’ll let you all know if it worked or not.
note to fizzymint: did you already have found something out of the ordinary yet? have’nt saw a reaction anymore since your first post, so i’m getting curious now
We haven’t made any changes to our software, and our RNG has remained the same, so unfortunately, I don’t have any helpful revelations on our end. There’s some great advice in this thread, and hopefully it’ll prove useful! If you do have any specific data points for us to look at between you and the other folks you mentioned, we can certainly take a look. If your friends don’t feel comfortable posting in a public forum, they can always e-mail us at support.
) so 10k i can lose too.