Hand
I have 8BB.
We are 10 left, ITM is at 5. To me ICM is not so big here. Stay 28% of the field. In chips ev we have to call an all in from HJ with 44. So when i jam i have FE i think a bit, so to me its ok but i am very very bad in MTT so i want your opinion. Maybe when he limp he had only AA maybe because normally thats always all-in here i think.
That’s pretty standard play, all around. Maybe 1 could say that AA shouldnt have limped, and should have min raised, min bet. Maybe 1 could say that this late in tournament, early position limps can semi often be TT to AA limps that trying to trap, and that because of that maybe should have completed the SB to try to set mine, bust the early position trapper. But early position limpers often limp marginal hands like QJ suited, KJ, KT suited, JT suited, QT suited, 22, etc, in early position, so because of that shoving 44 all in on SB, can be good. It’s really close. If you were closer to ICM, cashing chip, money bubble, I would say that you should flat call limp complete 44 on SB to set mine. Being further away from the bubble, it’s probably about 50/50 EV, and so you semi might semi probably can take a risk, gamble to try to steal, or get called by overs to try to chip up, so that not short, in order to make a run at not only cashing but to top 2, win, etc.
literally my thinking ingame
Haha, it’s me!
Bet sizing with short stacks either shoves or sizes down. Here we both have approx 8bb. Yes, I could have jammed but with something prime we can mix in a limp to trap.
At normal stack depth we can open standard 3x 4x 5x whatever, but when we are chip leaders with 8bb that is over half stack, standard opening is pointless. Also, when everyone else is 2-4bb, Villain will call 3bb probably same as all-in 8bb (unless the field is really bad players - NOT the case in this tournament). So no more standard open, just jam.
However, with prime hand we can trap. We do this with a ICM standard open which is limp. As the stacks get smaller the opening raise gets smaller, 2.5x, 2x … at 8bb limp is standard open. You will notice on solvers at normal stack depth often the chart will be full of 100% raise hands but then the AA and maybe KK will be 50% raise 50% call. You can mix in call at normal stack depth. Well at 8bb with prime we mix in some limps with our jams.
That’s what I did.
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If I was playing your hand, if I remember our stacks were pretty good. 5th place gets paid $$ and there are 10 left and we have the 2 biggest stacks at this table, so we are 5th and 6th at worst, if I recall we were probably 3rd and 4th stacks in tournament (Lelaina and rgcrest I think were 1st and 2nd). So even with just 8bb, we might have enough to get paid, or at least 1 more decent pot win will get us paid. Look at all the small stacks around us. 2 or 3 of them are ready to blind out soon.
This brings me to hand selection. As mentioned above, 44 is right on the cusp of play or not play. It’s a tough spot because with 8bb against all these 2bb 3bb stacks we can bluff the bubble and get a ton of folds and steal, but if we get called, 44 is a scary showdown.
Think about showdown with 44. What are the chances that Villain has 2 cards over 4? Probably 85-90% (probably 10-15% A-wheel). Compare this to 99. What are the chances that Villain has 2 cards over 9? 40-60%? So the low pocket pair showdown value is only ok, not great. Against 44 Villain has probably 2 chances to hit a pair above 4, but with 99 he has probably 1.5 chances.
So, maybe I would be wrong, but with still 4th or 5th stack out of 10, and 5 get paid soon I would not jam 44. I would wait for something better. Remember, no antes so you can wait whole orbit while these tiny stacks around you blind.
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Do not shove 44 here. Fold or complete.
I think you are understating the ICM pressure here. Stacks at your table are:
-25k
-25k
-18k
-16k
-6k
-3k
With blinds 1500/3000, no ante. @napkin_holder says Hero here is 3rd or 4th in chips with 10 players remaining, 5 players ITM. If you just play very tight you will probably make the money a lot of the time. This means we need more chip EV to justify putting our stack at risk against the only other player at the table who can bust us.
44 vs. HJ limp doesn’t sound super lucrative to me. They need to have 22 and 33 in range before we really start profiting; how likely do you think that is in this configuration? There is also, as you are clever to note, the meta of HJ being weighted more toward AA with a limp here, as a thinking player with multiple short stacks behind.
You are really leaning on your fold EQ when you jam this spot. Any time you get called, you’re in big trouble (flipping or dominated). That’s a scary proposition. And the pot you’re trying to steal is significant, but not huge (it’s not like we’re squeezing over 4 limps or something, where the payoff for success is very lucrative).
So yeah, idk. My intuition says set-mining here is more profitable than going for it.
To be fair this hand is very hard i think, because i have never limp range except in SB personally (i play only in open jam 8BB) so idk with what he limp, so i tought he was very weak. @napkin_holder if u want you can told your limp range but i understand you dont want to told to not be exploit.
I think you are a lot closer to understanding than you think.
You say that you are not good at tournaments. The difference between ring game and tournament is that in ring you just always make the profitable play. In tournament, sometimes you are more careful because your stack is your life. You cannot just rebuy and keep playing that fish who sucked you out. Most of the time you will just make the profitable play but there are spots where you have to just be a little more careful.
Two pieces of information that you interpreted a little bit loose here, not much, you are close.
1 ~ Your stack is not so small as you think. 8bb is small, very small, ICM yes, but you are 2nd at table and 4th in tournament and bubble is near. Look at stacks
Villain (me haha!) 8bb
Hero (you) 8bb
6bb
5bb
2bb
1bb
You probably only have to win 1 more decent pot to cash ItM, maybe not even win 1.
2 ~ 44 is probably not in your shove range. Yes pocket pair is nice but probably 88 or 99 maybe bottom of your shove range here. So you are close. If you are 8th out of 10 with 5bb, yes shove 44, but 8bb in 4th place and no antes. You have time to find a better hand to shove. 99 or AQ or something.
In a ring game 8bb vs 8bb with 44, shove is probably the profitable play (you know better because I don’t play ring games very much) but on tournament bubble you have to be more careful.
You did not play badly. Just a little little bit loose, because it is tournament and bubble.