Hand Analysis #3 (2 for the price of 1)

Poker Strategy
1

This one is inspired by a couple of other recent strategy posts, plus I genuinely wonder what is optimal in these spots.

July Bust the Staff tournament.

Hero has 50,000 Bounty on their head, but I doubt this really matters strategy-wise. Although, I am conscious that my Knockout count for the year is a pitiful 4 in the previous 6 BTS.

100 players left and I have a below average stack.

https://www.replaypoker.com/hand/replay/1160275113

  • The limper was fairly active (they finished 4th overall) and I half expected a call, but not always with a hand which dominated mine.
  • I chose not to limp myself, min raise, or wait in the hope of something better.

Having luckboxed that one, I continued on and found myself in the last 30

https://www.replaypoker.com/hand/replay/1160289878

  • This time I have a decent stack. I still have my eye on eliminating some shorties, plus the Big Blind is undefended.
  • Was this a rush of blood which made good? Should I have minded my own business?
  • I admit that once I get within top 30 or so, my policy is very Shove / Fold oriented.

Thoughts on both / either.

FWIW, I eventually died with another A9 shove (into AQ) but doubled by KO count to 8. :partying_face:

Rob

2

Hand #1, I don’t think you’re quite short enough where you have to shove A9o, but if you’re going to play it, I think shove is best. It’s fine either way really.
Hand #2, I don’t see how else you can play that hand

I’m not sure why there’s any doubt that both of these are fine?

1 Like
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A9o off 15bb is Upswing approved for an open shove from as early as the hijack, but only has +0.03 EV. From CO/BTN it goes up to +0.3, and from SB it’s a very robust +2.3.

My interpretation: in @Chasetheriver’s configuration, this is…

-an OK shove at some frequency against a standard lineup

-a good to very good shove most of the time against a nitty lineup, and

-a smidge suicidal if SB/BB will call even a little light.

4

For the second hand, agreed this is very standard and not even worth questioning. A short stack limped, and the blinds are still significant relative to our stack; we have great incentive to put them to a decision for all their chips and try to isolate against a player who can’t hurt us too much anyway.

I like the sizing because Villain clearly has no fold equity with their remaining 1.whatever BB stack, but we lose a little less (than if we’d used 4-4.5x) if one of the bigger stacks behind us goes all-in and forces us to fold our marginal suited ace.