Guess the Hand #3

Replay Poker Poker Strategy
1

I have one, unfortunately not from here, so I can’t link it. Also, the objective here is to figure out my opponents hand, which I didn’t manage in game, but which did make sense when I saw it.

I open to 2.5 from HJ with 9s8s, villain 3-bets to 7.5 from the cutoff, everyone else gets out of the way. Pot is 16.5bb

Flop is As9d3h. I check, CO bets (~1/3 pot), I call. Pot is now 25bb
Turn 4s makes the board As9d3h4s, I check, villain checks behind
River is the 2d, bringing in a straight, and I lead out for 1/3 pot. Villain raises (around 3x).

What do you think they have?

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2

My guess is suited A5, hearts or diamonds. Villain wants to play this hand as 3! or fold preflop, since it plays pretty well post and has some nutted draws but isn’t really good enough to either flat or shove what looks like at least a 40bb stack.

On the flop, cbet is standard for a rainbow ace high board and does little to narrow Villain’s range. With A5 hh/dd, Villain flops top pair weak kicker with some nice backdoors to the nuts.

Check back on the turn for pot control with an unimpressive kicker.

Raise big when they make the wheel on the river!

I supposed I should also have a guess for the bluff side of the equation, but that seems harder, it’s been a long hot day, and I am le tired. So I’m not gonna do that right now :smiley:

3

A5s is what the solver says they should have, but I expect some checks on the flop, and don’t think anyone who bets the flop is slowing down on the turn when they pick up additional equity. The hand they do have is a pure bet on the turn according to the solver, but it’s logical for a human to check here.

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4

HMMMMM THE PLOT THICKENS

5

uhhh a pair between KK and TT? kinda stumped now tbh
hmm maybe that doesn’t make as much sense on the river tho
some kinda A2?? maybe Ah2h

6

I don’t think A2 is slowing down much on the turn either.
They have a hand they’re supposed to fold most of the time pre-flop, but are allowed to 3-bet it sometimes. I think a lot of players will call with it pre-flop, even though that’s the worst option.

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7

54s, third pot cont on flop with gutshot and likely bd flush draw. Turn makes a hand and has 2 pair outs with gutshot, unlikely to bet out any A or sticky pp so check back. River hits, looks for value from A’s and any unlikely 2p hands after your bet.

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8

Correct. They’re supposed to keep bluffing with 54s on the turn, but it’s pretty natural to look for a reason not to, so I think a lot of players will slow down when they turn a pair.

I think maybe 65s gets here sometimes too, but not often, and I couldn’t think of another way the villain was likely to have a 5.

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9

Nice call @Pos111!

Yeah I check way too much when I should keep betting, but honestly I can’t see myself ever slowing down on this turn with 54s. I mean, why play the hand if you’re not gonna bet that runout pretty aggressively?

Cool hand @lihiue

10

“unlikely to bet out any A or sticky pp so check back” is the “very human” reasoning that solvers hate (to be clear, I’m not saying you think this way - just analyzing that line in a vacuum).

We aren’t trying to knock out a better hand necessarily right away; we’re setting up a river shove on a lot of scary cards and cashing in our EQ with the lead, rather than from a passive position. NICE

11

At First based on preflop 3 bet: 22 to AA, A6 suited to AK, K9 suited to KQ, Q9 suited to QJ, JT suited, J9 suited, T9 suited.

then based on board
, 1/3 pot bet, then narrowing opening 3 bet range to K9 suited, Q9 suited, J9 suited, T9 suited, TT to QQ, A6 suited to AK. Then once villain checks turn, and based on 4s hitting turn, then figured A3 spades, A4 spades to AK spades, 99, 33, TT to QQ.

Then when Villain reraising your 1/3 river raise 3x your 1/3 river bet, looking like he both wants to get more chips in, but not forcing a fold, and looking like he wants a call, and with As9d3h4s2d board,then it looks like A5 suited spades, that hit straight, 99, 33, 44, 22, A9 spades, A3 spades, A4 spades, A2 spades. Dont think 65 of spades, because dont think 3 betting 65 spades. Dont think TT to QQ, unless villain is capable of doing that sophisticated of a bluff.

If someone put a gun to my head and said guess the right hand or else, I would probably say A5 of spades. But also since you left out how tight or loose villain is, and whether villain bluffs, etc. then no matter how good one is at hand range reading, narrowing ranges down, etc, its still extremely hard, etc to name the exact hand. Even Negreanu, Hellmuth which among the best at it, only sometimes name the exact hand. But usually they get it down to a couple, few, some possibilities, narrowed range, etc, that usually right. because of that, even if I dont get the exact hand, I am pretty sure its either A5 suited spades, A2 spades, A3 spades, A4 spades, A9 spades, 99, 33, 22, 44, assuming standard play without more knowledge of villain. If I knew more about villain I would either have chance to get exact hand, or down to 2,3 possibilities that probably be right narrowed range. but even if I am completely off, wrong. My process, proceedure, logic, reasoning, is the right process, proceedure.

Now that I have answered, I’ll check to see what villain actually had.

12

Wasnt expecting 45 suited for the reasons all you guys named.

But hey, at least the solver said I was right. In any case whether 45 suited or A5 suited, or even the other hands, the right read is to narrow hands to hands I named and know that your extremely ultimately likely, almost guaranteed BEAT, and that hero or anyone else should fold on the river

Congratz Pos111 on naming the exact hand.

It was fun playing in the same tournament that you played at, in, and that we both were at same table.