Table is playing pretty loose passive. No one is opening but me, most of them are limping what seems like 80%. I’m BB with JhTh. 5 limpers, SB completes, I 400K, everyone calls except MP. 6 ways to the flop. I hadn’t been on the table long, and though I know these players loose passive ways I still don’t expect to get 5 callers when I go 10x from the BB.
Flop (2.4M) 8c7c9c… Questions, 1) Should we be opening here? 2) As played what do we do on this flop texture?
You could have posted this hand on the thread I started earlier tonight.
I might be too tight, but I usually fold any time the flop is solid suited and I have none of that suit. Straight vs. Flush is a knife to a gunfight, and I hate feeling stupid. Although, that doesn’t seem to prevent it from happening very often.
I’ve been surprised lately at high stakes how often I see players put a lot of chips into a flushed flop board when they just have a pair, completely ignoring the flush possibility. You don’t see that at low stakes, everyone pretty well fears the flush and won’t play their cards if they hit a flushed board.
If I have a unsuited Ace of the board color, I’ll stay in, or if I flop a flush then I’ll call any bet, unless I’m on low cards and it’s likely a better flush is beating me, or if the board goes four to the flush and whoever’s sitting out there with the unpaired Ace now has the nuts.
I’ll fold the flush on two-paired boards, because someone invariably has the full house.
I thought about it, lol. I was getting ready to post it and I saw yours in the list of latest post, read the title and was like wait that’s my hand. Haha
Good fundamental players do not ignore the flush possibility, we just don’t play scared of hands that are statistically very hand for our opponents to have. It’s hard to flop a flush.
I’ll pay off quads and straight flushes, but it seems like about half the time the board flops one color, someone’s got it. If not on the flop, then by the river. I’ll sometimes steal them, too, but you can’t steal them very well if no one’s afraid of the flop.
Preflop open… not too sure that I like this one. JT is a hand that likes a small SPR and a chance to play multiple streets. Its also a hand that’s generally quite playable in multiway pots. From the button definitely an open but from the big blind I think checking is fine too. On the other hand you got 5 callers to a 10x open so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ I don’t know how to analyze this rationally.
Also not very scientific but I feel like you can just blast away on the flop here. You certainly can be behind a flush (and people do love to play any two suited cards) but you can also likely get called by anyone with Ac, Kc, Qc, Jc or Tc in their hand, as well as 2pair, sets and hands like Tc9x that have multiway draws. You’re getting stacked a good % of the time but also often winning a massive pot.
You do not squeeze with this hand in the BB on a table of loose passives. You need deep stacks. Seriously, on the Hagia Sophia full ring, you are playing with people who think a condiment is a flavored prophylactic. Plain vanilla nut hunting vs these people. Better yet, get to a 6-max table and play some poker.
A straight flush 0.5% of the time
A flush 5.5% of the time
The nut flush draw 7% of the time
Overpair with flush draw 0.5% of the time
Top Pair with the flush draw 3.4% of the time
Overall, each player has a flopped flush or flush draw 35% of the time on this flop. Chopping another 5.2% of the time with another flopped straight. Add another 2% for sets that can improve to FH’s.
What were you thinking pre though ? I just check to see a flop, but anyway, why not right?
Flop : o_O and when I see the 3 clubs
I see what you mean, but I don’t think it’s the best play. I prefer to bet huge on this flop, somewhere like 2-2.4M. If I get callers I’m happy, and hope to avoid a club turn. If someone shoves, difficult, but it will be a call. If you’re shoving, all pairs with draws are gonna fold for example, AcX hands will maybe fold and Kc/Qc/Jc will almost fold every time. If you’re betting big, but not shoving, you might actually let them stay in this hand.
But honestly, after thinking about it, I like a shove too. Difficult, we shouldn’t have been in this spot.
What would you guys do on this board if you had AhAd or KhKd for example ?
Well, if you’re betting turn with that read, and if you look at the time he took to call turn, it could have been interesting to shove river.
Still, I think he’s checking his KhXo combo’s, maybe his JhXo combo’s too on the turn. Taking the lead on that turn shows some strength, so checking the top of your range here makes some sense to me. Still a good read, and yeah, you had some show-down value… With a blank you would have shoved, right ?
No, I took my shot at it and was done with the hand. I don’t think he would call half his stack on the turn with anything he would have folded on the river.
I thought he had to have a flush there, what else could he possibly call the turn bet with?
Keep i mind that this was a SnG, so I didn’t want to die there. Betting half pot on a 4 hearts board with no hearts in my hand was risky enough. It was a spot only a moron would bluff, which made it a good spot to bluff to me. LOL
Still, I think the turn bet works often enough to make it worth doing. I felt that, if he called half pot, he would have called the shove too. He almost folded the turn… almost. I can’t win it if I’m not in it, so I didn’t want to risk it all there. He did call the min raise preflop, so I didn’t think I had the best hand.
By the way, there was a 3rd player in the hand, but when he checked the flop and turn, I was confident he would go away.
Fair enough. Yeah, risky bluff, that is certainly true. It’s always better to avoid these spots, where you’re more often losing than actually winning, especially when you’re near the bubble !
Well, I obviously don’t agree. When a fella bluffs there, he’s not playing his own hand, he’s not playing his opponent’s hand, he’s playing what he thinks his opponent thinks he could have.
The bubble is the best time to get aggressive, and spots where nobody in their right mind would bluff are some of the best spots to bluff. I would have made the same bet if I had the nut flush, so eh. Call at yer peril!
So, you have about 33.5% equity on this flop, having made the nut straight. The pot is so bloated that all flush draws, sets and even 2-pairs (meh) are priced to call your c-bet. 2 players only have 1x pot behind, which makes folding for them even less likely. Being OOP with this flop, you can downbet or even check and see what action ensues. All the trash will fold and if you see any raises/shoves, you know you are dead or really thin and can get away if you want. I’d base my action on what the larger stacks did TBH.
The other way to look at this is that you’re on a table that went 6-ways to the flop on a 10x raise. No need to push thin margins on this table. You can overfold marginal spots and be more than fine. You can also decide to gamble and let variance do its thing.
ADDED: IMO, this isn’t a good candidate for a squeeze.
you got me, yeah I agree this is a terrible open on this table. I had just sat down and even though I know these guys I hadn’t really settled in to the table and I may have leveled myself with this raise because I just got there and hadn’t established my image I thought I would get more credit 10x from the BB and iso to HU or 3 way. Boy was I wrong!
I considered this and would have shoved but I honestly backed down to 1.5M because I thought I could get away if the CO showed interest. I have pretty solid reads on him and even though he’s in last position I don’t expect him to get out of line in this pot.
you got me, yeah I agree this is a terrible open on this table. I had just sat down and even though I know these guys I hadn’t really settled in to the table and I may have leveled myself with this raise because I just got there and hadn’t established my image I thought I would get more credit 10x from the BB and iso to HU or 3 way. Boy was I wrong!