Exploit Overfolding - Late Stage MTTs

Poker Strategy
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@KileKing made a great point the other day that has really stuck with me and helped improve my recent play. He simply noticed that since he has been more willing to fold a strong hand, especially late in a tournament when every hand could be your last, he has been winning more.

This reminds me that if my opponents are not as aggressive as GTO says they should be (which, honestly, few players are) then there is literally not a SINGLE HAND that I actually “have” to play preflop. This includes pocket aces!

For example, say there are 4 players left and everyone has already made the money. We are in 2nd place with 35 bb; chip leader has 40bb and the other two stacks have 3bb. If chip leader opens all-in and the other two players fold, we may well be incentivized to fold even AA. On average we will win 80-85% of the time against the chip leader… but it’s possible 1 or even both of the short stacks will bust before we do (if we simply fold AA preflop) more than 20% of the time. It gets complicated when you factor in the pay jump from 2nd to 1st, but hopefully this little hypothetical gets the point across.

Or more simply, if you have JJ and a reasonably tight player goes all in, depending on stack sizes and payouts you may not have that much incentive to call, given that in many instances you will be flipping for your tournament life. If you think you have a skill edge against the field, you might be better off waiting for a better spot.

I know I tend to operate on the unspoken assumption that if I am at the top of my range, I simply MUST call any bet. But in tournaments this isn’t always the case. At some point, survival is more valuable than accumulating chips—or rather, busting is more disastrous than not accumulating chips. If you take this too far you become exploitable and your results will surely suffer, but it can be a very powerful nuance to add to your game when used judiciously.

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There is Tournament theory that takes in account the bubble play, not sure of the name, with so many theories around these days.
However, what you have described holds water around bubble time… Even though, even then you probably don’t fold AA. There is a solid argument to folding KK, but not AA.
But this dynamic is based on the fact that the difference between two positions, the bubble and first ITM, is so great that the optimal play might mean you fold KK against a large chip stack, and a short stack might get eaten soon.
However, the last 4 players, and all 4 are ITM… the pay out difference might not be great enough to fold even 99 let alone AA.
My point being, the optimal fold needs to take all of these factors in account, and finding a folding balance in those situation is tricky. But one should consider it, and should test where that boundary is, to come up with the most optimal boundary fold.
And as far as my comment was on our table, my conclusion was that that fold is much higher than I considered in the past. So instead of calling into a 3 person pot, all in pre flop with TT, … I am probably better off to folding. That’s all.

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Yes, hyperbolic example that probably strains the boundaries of logic. Just making a point. Your qualifying remarks make sense. Thanks for chiming in!