Did I play, Fold AK suited Right, in 20k buy 1 mil GTD, PKO, Top 9 left, my 2nd in chips, vs 1st in chips?

Replay Poker Hand Review
1

Ok here is the situation: I had a TIGHT image. chip leader also had a VERY TIGHT image. And chip leader was ranked VERY HIGH. I had about 33k, about a 50 bb stack. I had a skill edge and was playing better then competition.

Blinds was about 300\600. Chipleader limped in. I raised to 2700, with AK suited. Chipleader reraised all in. I put Chipleader on: AT suited, AJ suited, AQ suited, AK suited, 22 to AA, KQ suited. I figured that there was about a 55% ish chance that had pocket pair under KK, and about 45% ish chance that had overcards that I beat. 1. I didnt want to be wrong. 2. even if read right, and it probably was right, I did not want to be coinflipping on about 46% chance to win flip. yes I would have been in drivers seat to win even more, but I was already in driver’s seat in a way, and so I imight have semi purposely fold what might have been the best hand.

2 hands later I doubled up. Then increased stack to 100k. The guy I folded to, me and him were top 2. I had about 125k, and he had about 50k. I lost about 2,3 coinflips heads up. 1 I had the overs, the other I had the pocket pair facing overs, and then I got bad beat 2 times after that, and got bad beat out in 2nd.

I think I played it right, was right to fold AK suited in that spot, situation. If I had been 4 to 9 to 14 to 20 bb stack I would have called with AK suited.

Just double checking. Also thought this could help others. What do any of you all think?

2

AKs is a mandatory call - it’s not even close. If you were facing a 3-bet and then a jam, maybe you can consider folding AK.

It’s kind of beside the point, but the range you’re giving your opponent doesn’t make any sense to me either. AT/AJs should mostly just call, it’s actually the off-suit Ax combos that have the most incentive to jam. Also, how many pocket pairs are going to limp shove? Sure people will do that occasionally, but limp/call is the far more natural play for low/medium pairs, and high pairs will mostly open raise, so you probably have around 80% equity here in practice.

3

Umm you misunderstood then, as it was a 3bet all in jam. Also if it was 3 bet to 20k, then that would be either a reraise all in or fold as calling 20k, and the either missing flop, having flop come Q9x and facing a all in bluff postflop, or having to fold postflop, be knocked down to 13k, or getting outflopped, beat postflop, etc, would be very bad, and because of that flat calling 20k 3bet would be very bad, so because of that, reraising all in or folding would be better then flat calling 20k 3 bet.

but like I said in my post I folded to a limp in reraise 3 bet all in jam. And the range, chances I put him on is extremely likely to be accurate, and I did play better, was playing better then competition, did have advantage, and wasnt going to risk chip leader having about a 50% chance to bust out my 50 bb. 2nd in chips stack, 9 handed, and finish in 9th place, when I can fold and likely finish 1,2,3 place, instead of 9th place.

If I had had JJ,QQ to AA, I would have called.

I disagree. Maybe its that way at the 75k to 100k to 150k to 300k to 500k buy ins, but in the 7.5 k, 20k, 50k non league buy ins there are still players that love to limp reraise all in Jam with A9 suited to AK, KQ suited, 22 to AA, when they have more chips then everyone else, and when they know that 2nd in chips, 50 bb stack, would likely fold, unless have TT to AA, in order to likely make 1st, 2nd, 3rd place, instead of 9th place bust out.

The dynamics were similar to folding AA in a satellite, where 1 spot away from getting 1 million buy in ticket.

At best, considering everything I was about 67% to win, and at worst was about 33% to win, and at average I was 50/50 50% to win, +EV/-EV

No way was I 80% to win, 80% +EV. At ultimate extreme very best I semi MIGHT have been about 69%, 70% to win, 69%, 70% +EV

It was a very high variance, very chancy call if I were to have called, and I was not about to risk either being 50/50, or 40/60, or 60/40 or to be 73% and get BUTLUCKED BAD BEAT OUT, in 9th, when I knew I could fold and extremely easily finish top 3,

Let chip leader have his limp in 3 bet reraise all in jam work and have blinds, antes and my 2700 chip 5 x bb raise, and then just get the chips back later, which I did. And if I hadnt lost 2,3 all in preflop coinflips, when it was down to me, him as top 2 left heads up, where I was about 150k, and where he was about 39k to 49k, and where after that got bad beat 2 times, and then bad beat out in 2nd, then I would have won, should have won the whole tourny, because I folded AK suited all in to chip leaders limp reraise 3 bet all in Jam preflop.

I think I am right, and dont think you have made a right, persuasive enough argument to convince me otherwise.

But thanks for answering.

Also If I had been a fish, I would have called, not because a Fish would call, they would call, but because calling would likely be the only way I could win tourny, finish in higher place in tourney, as fish are more likely to bust out in 9th. Since I am not a FISH, I’m a lot more likely to win or finish higher, then bust out in 8th 9th. etc, so because of that, no sense in putting the win, top 3 finish at risk by calling.

Now if I had raised 6k to 8k to 10k, 8.5 bb to 10 bb to 11.5 bb preflop, then I would have called.

Losing 2.7k, 5 bb preflop by folding was not a big deal.

Yeah semi maybe was technically the best ahead hand, but despite that it was probably the right fold, and the villain who was ranked ABOUT 1500 to 3000 to 5000, probably knew that and made a good move, because he probably knew that I was very good player that would probably rightly fold for, because of the right reasons I’ve explained.

4

this game is all luck and your luck improves the more chances you take. the correct play is to push with AK because thats what all the pros do. they do this because of the number, the percentage that AK will win. but there is luck and sometimes it just isnt your day. recognize what addiction looks like. this is a great site to work out your poker addictioin for a few years untile you get great and just feel the situations and feel the game. you need alot of practice and thats what this is. dont play live unless its 5
% of your bankroll or less. you go broke playing this because of varince. and lucky opponenets…lol

5

Yeah, I don’t know where I got 80% from, it must have been late. I think you’re only losing about 33% of the time, but I also expect you’re chopping with AKo a decent amount, so your actual equity is more like 60%.

There’s 7bb in the pot already though, so you don’t even need 50% to call. This is still a slam dunk call, all day, every day.

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6

It was a very Dicey, Chancy, High Variance spot.

Because I was about 95% chance to make top 3, as all I had to do was PUNCH MY TOP 3 TICKET, by FOLDING.

There was no sense in JEOPARDIZING that by calling the big stack, with about a 25 to 50% chance be up against a pocket, and about a 33 to 43% chance to lose, get knocked out by 1st in chips in 9th place.

You really dont seem to understand ICM, satellite like dynamics. There are times where its ok to overfold a spot and claim your satellite ticket 1,2 spots later, or for ICM, or when your 2nd in chips, and your stack, skill edge, advantage, etc, makes it 90% chance that make top 2,3, etc.

I suspect that if I had called, and if chipleader had a pocket, and if I then busted out in 9th, and if I then posted, asked about it, you and others probably would have said something like “You should have folded, known he had a pocket, etc. And you were likely to make the top 2,3, so no sense in calling the chip leader’s pocket, all in and busting out in 9th.”

If it had been earlier in tourny like mid tourny for example, I would have called. Even in semi late tourny in about, around top 17 to top 20 to top 23 ish, it would have been a call because at that stage, it still would have been chancy on, about whether make top 2,3. If I would have had a smaller stack, been 4th,5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th in chips, about around a 9 bb to 35 to 37 bb stack, instead of about 55 bb stack, I would have called. If I had had TT to AA, which likely to only lose about 20% to 25% to 30%, of time, I would have called. If I had been a lot lesser skilled player, I would have called, because I would have known that I would have not been likely to finish top 4, because of lack of skill, so only hope to top 4, if a lot lesser skill is to call, instead of folding.

Only in this extremely rare limited type of situation, etc, would I fold, which I think is the right thing to do in this specific, rare, limited type of situation.

And because I did probably rightly fold, that skill, 90% chance to make top 2,3 happened.

7

I can’t speak for everyone but I doubt @lihiue would have told you that.

You are framing this whole discourse as if it’s known that Villain had AA or KK. You don’t know this; it’s likely you were ahead or at worst flipping.

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8

No villain didnt have AA, KK. Villain likely had at very widest: A8 suited to AK, KJ suited, KQ, 22,33,44,55,66,77,88,99. Villain was VERY TIGHT. HAD A VERY TIGHT IMAGE, and his limp reraise all in preflop range, was about A8 suited to AK, KJ, KQ, 22,33,44,55,66,77,88,99.

There is no sense in calling and risking about a 25 to 33 to 43% chance to be up against a pocket, and risking there to be between about 33% to 43% to 50% chance to lose. Its VERY CHANCY, DICEY, EXTREMELY HIGH VARIANCE.

Better to PUNCH THE 90% chance to make top 2,3, Ticket by folding

9

I understand your reasoning and I do not think it’s terrible. @KileKing was talking about the same type of spot recently. He said he will sometimes fold a hand as strong as AK late in a tournament when he thinks the result could likely be “flipping for stacks.” He thinks his skill edge is big enough that it’s more profitable to SOMETIMES pass on these spots, because he can find so many other spots where his equity is even greater.

Kile and I somewhat disagree on this point, even though I acknowledge that he’s probably a stronger MTT player than I am overall.

I have NEVER folded a hand as strong as AKs to a single 3bet. I trust my skill edge against the field too, but I think part of that edge is playing proper preflop ranges and responding appropriately to my opponents’ actions. If Villain 3 bets me to a size that requires me to go all-in, I want to CALL with AsKs EVERY TIME because it is a winning call in that configuration. We are going to have the best hand plenty of the time, and when we don’t, we will be flipping plenty of the time. We will only be behind a VERY small % of the time.

I would rather take the risk of busting than allow ANY opponent, no matter how tight they are, to run me off my equity or force me to make a -EV play.

To be clear, putting money in the pot with the very top of your range and then folding to a raise is -EV.

I can see a fold in this spot if we open, V1 3bets, and V2 (who is also very tight) comes over the top with a 4bet all-in. Then we can SOMETIMES begin to THINK ABOUT folding a hand as strong as AKs.

But against one villain, for a single raise or 3bet, it’s a mistake to fold AKs preflop. That’s all. There’s nothing else to discuss.

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10

You’re saying villain is very tight, but then having them limp re-raise all in with 22? A hand that is guaranteed flipping at best, against what you think is your tight image? That just doesn’t add up to me - and if you remove 22’s through 55’s from the range you’re assigning them, now you’re against mostly hands that you dominate. But beside that, isn’t it also quite likely that they built up a large stack by playing very tight, but are now starting to leverage their chip lead? If they are a good tournament player as you suggest, it’s what I’d expect them to be doing.

In my mind, what would make this a good fold has nothing to do with the chip leader. If there are a bunch of short stacks that are likely to blind out in the next couple of orbits, then yes, you have a very good chance of laddering up and can justify a fold here. It would be a mistake to open the hand in the first place after the chip leader limps though, and I think claiming a 90% chance of making the top 2-3 is extremely optimistic.

Finally, there is a big benefit in taking the risk with this hand, even if you’re correct about everything else. You are much more likely to finish first if you win this hand - and the pay jump from 3rd to 1st is likely pretty significant, so that needs to be factored in.

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11

This is the most important point IMO, and I’m sorry I didn’t mention it already.

@Asuronetorius I actually went through a phase where I started making some of these folds, too. My reasoning was similar: I have a big edge, why volunteer for flips when the money is in sight and I can win plenty of flops with more clarity about my advantage?

Then I realized I was just being overconfident. I am a pretty solid player, I think, but far from good enough to be folding AKs preflop because I have better ways to gain an advantage. The odds that I would make stronger hands, facing less resistance, faster than the blinds would catch up to me— or before I happened to find myself in a “cooler” spot—are probably LOWER than the total EV of just going for it with AsKs against a 3! from the chip leader (or from anyone).

Holding AKs, knowing you should play that hand aggressively, and being willing to do so even though sometimes that means losing… that IS the advantage!

For instance, we make more money in the long run than old-school nits who say “just limp with AK and wait to hit the flop, because AK is a drawing hand.” That’s the skill edge. Knowing how to play AK and following through with the plan in real-time is the edge. You are throwing a big chunk of your edge away in an effort to preserve your edge :slight_smile:

12

All good points, but from your post above as well this one, one thing should be pointed out. The theory applies mostly in deep stack part of the tourney. Once we get to short stack poker then AK becomes more of a “must play” hand.
Also, I’ll fold AK even in middle stack poker if I get too much action pre flop: UNG standard raise, big re-raise, and an all in. Of course even in the middle stack poker I probably fold AK there.
If I have chips to maneuver, now and in the next few blind levels, then I’ll pass on flipping situations for all of my chips. And to be more specific, it’s not that there will be better spots to push all of my chips in, where I’ll have much better odds while going all in. Instead it’s that I’ll be taking smaller pots without ever showing hands, taking advantage of increased fold equity as we enter later stages of the tourney. So the goal is to build your stack without ever having to show your hand.
Now easier said than done, of course, but that is the goal, and I believe that I’ll find enough spots where I’ll be able to build my stack through dink & donk plays. SB vs BB plays, short/middle stack poker are my favorite spots to take pots without ever seeing the turn. Raise pre flop, take chips. (me SB vs BB). Raise pre flop, c-bet (me SB vs BB). Limp, raise 3x (SB vs me BB). You get most of the time fold. If not, c-bet gets additional chips most of the time. If you get call, you give up… unless you hit a monster, and you get even more chips. Etc. … My point is there are always spots to take chips w/out ever having to show your cards. And I’d rather play that way, then be excited to gamble for all of my chips.
If I am gambling for all of my chips, I want to have many more chips then my opponent so even if I lose, I have chips left. Etc.
As for the Original Post, I am ok with the fold there… Cause you have plenty of chips left to maneuver and use your skills. I would have opened with a smaller bet though. Once you get to deep stack poker 2x - 2.5x becomes a standard raise. Doing 4.5x opening raise, is too much. You are communicating the same message with a 1500 raise, while risking less, and having an easier decision if a 1st place person goes all in like it happened to you.

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13

The average stack size of the 9 player field was about 16.5k with blinds about 300/600, with 1, maybe 2 short stacks, with 1 short stack being about 10k. And yes with me having about a 37k, about 53 to 55 bb stack, yes I did have a Big Skill Edge, advantage, About 87% to 90% chance to make top 3, instead of 5th thru 9th. I was in fact Punching my top 3, 4th at worst, unless get ultimate extremely unlucky Ticket, by folding.

Calling, and winning 37k more, IF IF IF not behind, IF IF IF not in a coinflip, IF IF IF the 37% chance to not have hand hold up, survive, win, is ONLY WIN EVEN MORE, and is unnecessary, because both 37k and 74k is enough to win, finish top 3, etc.

Better to fold and keep on getting the chips from the smaller, shorter stacks, and wait until either better spot against Big stack, or until if Big stack gets stack cut down.

Which is what I did, and because I did that I had 150k vs about 43k stack that was the player who limp reraised all in over my 2700 AK raise, and I would have won whole tourny against the limp reraise all in vs AK player, if not for 2 straight lost coinflips, and then 2 bad beats, and then getting bad beat knocked out in 2nd.

14

See @Asuronetorius I told you we wouldn’t agree! :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:

@KileKing I’m with you on all of that until the last paragraph. It’s just a bad fold IMO. Hero is on 50bb; folding AKs pre to 1 villain is a howler.

15

If I would have raised smaller then 4.5 to 4.7 to 5 bb over the 2 limpers, and had instead raised 3 x, I would have gotten 4,5,6 callers. Better to raise to 2700 and only get 2 callers, in a semi ISO, its then easier to get a cbet through on missed flop, if the missed board fits my likely range, or if they call on draw or bottom pair postflop, bet pot, double barrel, on turn, and get that through for a fold. Harder to get those kind of things through if get 3,4,5,6 callers preflop by only raising 2.5 x to 3 x over the 2 limps preflop very late towards end of tournament.

16

I think this explains a lot, about this post and many of your others. You’re drastically under-estimating the amount of luck/variance involved in poker.
There are a players here that have an in the money percentage of >25%, which is really good and indicates substantial skill edge over the the field, but also means their skill edge doesn’t even result in them cashing the majority of the time.
You say you doubled up two hands later, but it’s rare to be able to get all the money in with 90% equity, so you likely didn’t even have that much chance of not busting out in 9th place, let alone being guaranteed 2nd or 3rd. It has to be fairly likely that the 3 bad beats you get later in the tournament could happen before you double up right?

To be clear, I get you understand poker is high variance, but you seem to think the bad beats you are experience are unusual and/or should happen less if you have a significant skill edge. That’s just not how it works.

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You Really want to know where this is coming from and why, combined with what I have already said.

  1. I have gone on EPIC BAD RUNS of 70+ tournament and sit n go 9 to 200 player, buy ins get donk bad beat out in row bad run to got from $250 to $6 and almost busted bankroll that built up from $15 to $250, before building that $6 into $1850 at pokerstars before, when USA Black Friday, USA Govt, shut down Full Tilt, Poker Stars in 2011, and thar was with about 125 to 150 to 175 tournament buy in, extremely good bankroll management, being skilled, having a coach at the time.

EXTREMELY HIGH VARIANCE is EXTREMELY BAD, especially when, if down to top 9, where you know that if you avoid the high variance, you’ll finish top 3, win, etc.

  1. In the Phil Hellmuth, Ultimate Bet Net $250k 2 step Freeroll, where if finish top 9 in step 1 15,000 players, you get to play in step 2 3,000 to 5,000 to 7,000 player Freeroll, and if place top 9, in that freeroll, then top 9 get to play for $250,000 in real money, and trip to Aruba, on TV.

I was 500k co chip leader 10 left, in the 2nd step Freeroll. 500k Co chip leader villain open shoved QQ ALL IN UTG. I called with AA, and out I went in 10th place, 1 spot shy of of playing for the $250k, Aruba trip, on TV.

later found out that the villain had already qualified for step 2, and had already finished top 9 in a step 2, and was already going to play on TV, and by playing in another step 1 and step 2, etc had violated the rules. Villain should have been disqualified for breaking the rule, or I should have still been able to play on TV for the $250k, etc, later after that, the UB NET SUPER USER CHEATER SCANDAL happened.

  1. I have been in a number of similar situations in real money tournaments where I played, had similar spots to the AK suited spot very late, almost at end of tourny, where called, and most of the time I was either beat, behind, and out, or my hand didnt hold up, where I would have won finished top 2,3 if I would have folded.

That happened A LOT in both real money, freerolls, here, play chip sites, etc.

Sometimes its best to just turn down the extreme high variance, when have 50 to 100 bb’s, 1st, 2nd in chips, have a skill edge, have about a 90% chance to finish top 2,3, win, etc, and fold the AK suited to chip leader TIGHT A$$ limp reraise all in preflop.

18

Here is the further development in my understanding of the game, at least here on Replay:
The more and more I am honing in 1M+ MTTs the more and more I am finding spots. My moto in Poker in general, is “Make moves in spots”. Not only I am honing in the right amount to raise pre flop, frequency and amount of c-bets, attacking/protecting blinds, etc, but I am also discovering more and more SPOTS in general. The obvious ones that ppl learn about quickly by playing the game, and then not so obvious ones that you discover only if you are paying close attention and using all the aspects of the game, including as well board textures, number of players in the pot, the type of players you are surrounded with, etc. So now I feel like I find plenty of spots to steal chips without risking too much. Not sure if you noticed, but once I start getting to 2 tables left, I generally start growing my chip stack… And I rarely risk all of my chips. And that is the goal, make moves in spots, while minimizing the risk and maximizing the benefit. And when I notice that I pick up on the spots much more frequently than others around me, I feel like I am in a great advantage to finish the tourney right. As a result I am not so focused on the right pot odds to call, and right equity… I am focused on taking chips without ever showing my hand. I don’t want to gamble… And why, when I can find an easier way. So the shallow stack poker actually presents itself with more “Spots” not less. Once you realize that, then it becomes easier to fold AK with 55bb, for all of your chips against a large stack, EVEN though you have the odds in your favor to do it. I don’t feel desperate to find the right odds to push all of my chips. And if I am in that position, where I am looking for that, that already means I am not in a good position. I have either had a really bad beat early, or have not played skillful enough poker through the middle of the tourney. And now I am “punished” by being forced to look for spots to push all of my chips in the best equity situation, where I am certain someone will call me and we will gamble and I’ll either double up… or be out.
Btw, this approach is true for all the sites, and all of the games of Poker, it’s just that different sites/situation (real $ vs fake vs live tourney, etc), will create different dynamics and create different spots. The goal is to pick up on all the many spots the exist in the game, that are hard to see… until you see them!

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