Badbeats, coolers and suckouts

Replay Poker
21

Odds of both those events occurring in the same hand are 1,793,400 to one.

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22

Not in Royal poker. There are only 20 cards in the deck and 17 of them are in play. I haven’t bothered to figure out the actual odds, but it’s going to happen quite often.

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23

Poorly shuffled deck. Shuffle tracking is helpful with hand shuffled decks.

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24

Could be, could also be a well shuffled deck. It is interesting that people are more trusting of physical cards when there’s way more potential for bias in the way they are shuffled though.

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25

You play enough hands you will see most anything- i am not young and have seen a lot of crazy hands:)

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26

It was online poker-been playing for years, it happens—Tonight in a 10-minute period i had pockets A’s (played them STRONG) and got beat both times lol----Weekend Donks chased me (one had k-8 off suit) and the other had J-2 suited and called a BIG pre-flop raise:(------I still love weekend Donks but …happens:).

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27

Playing here earlier. Five players in the game. Three of us were dealt a 10 with a 4 kicker. I looked it up. The odds against that happening are 1 with fifty zeros after it, to one.

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28

That’s not correct. By my math, it’s 12,724,075 : 1, which is still unlikely, but much greater than the odds of winning the lottery, and that still happens all the time.

(Note: I original had the odds as 75M : 1, but that’s incorrect, it’s “only” around 12M : 1)

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29

Thanks. Must have been the way I originally Googled the question. Tried it again and got this answer from the AI: “The odds of three specific players in a five-player Hold’em game being dealt a 10 and a 4 are extremely low, roughly around 0.000002% (or 500,000 to 1) …”

30

Actually, I think even my revised calculation might be 4 times too high. Either way, this is definitely something most people will never play enough hands to observe, but a decent number will be lucky(?) enough to see.

31

Earlier today this guy sat down late reg and jammed his second or third hand with ATs. Villain rivered a straight and took about 60% of his stack. A few mins later, this guy jams the turn heads-up with AKs whiffed on a 5689 board. I think he had a flush draw. Villain called with a 7 and felted him. Guy whines “sucked out twice”. I said “You were behind on the turn, that’s not a suckout.” Then I said, “Actually you were bluffing air,” but he was already gone. Probably going off to sulk and tell everyone that the game is rigged when in reality he’s just a bad player.

Sitting down late, jamming pre deep and splash-bluffing soaked boards. Obviously he’s got us all outsmarted. ; )

32

I’m new to poker but my guess is, we just tend to remember the bad beats more cause they hurt, you’ll never remember that one time you reraised preflop aces and everyone mucked cause it was a small win that was expected and very boring and these hands reoccur all over the place if you follow good poker practice, what i usually do when i get in these positions (bad beats) is just fold the later hands and make sure i readjust mentally to avoid playing tilted

33

I did this to him. The very next hand, he did that to me. In the chat, he said ‘payback’.

34

this is why hate betting/raising preflop. what is the point in doing so when they just gonna call anyway. dude was way out of position, but hey call anyway. so, make a C bet, no way I have a Ace, so lets call and get rewarded on turn.
lol

2 Likes
36

According to Google: The probability of getting four suited connectors on the community cards in Texas Hold’em is extremely low, sitting at approximately 0.00001% (or 1 in 10 million) - making it a near impossible occurrence.

37

That can’t be right. The probability for any 4 specific cards if you only dealt 4 total is 1 in 270,725. (there’s 52 choose 4 total possibilities)

I can’t see the hand you’re referring too (or any of the previous links you posted either - you need to link to the full url with the hand number), but can say with some certainty that whatever situation you are describing will have odds that are much better than 1 in 270K.

(PS Google keeps giving me rubbish results for poker odds too, I just don’t think you can trust the AI summary. Usually it’s giving correct numbers, just not for the right situation, but sometimes it just seems to be making stuff up)

38

The community cards were 4D,5D,3D,6D

I copied and pasted the full URL with the hand number, but it kept changing to the Log In message.

I modified it here with (dot) to prevent it from changing.

https://www(dot)casino(dot)org/replaypoker/hand/replay/1239109605

39

Thanks.
The odds of a 4 card open ended straight-flush draw being on the board by the river are 1 in 1500. It’s 1 in 7520 for it to happen on the turn as it does here.

Working:
There are 36 possible 4 card oesf draws - K high down to 5 high for each suit.
We don’t care what order the cards are in, so there’s 4! = 24 possible arrangements of those 4 cards.
That’s 36 * 24 oesf configurations out of 52 * 51 * 50 * 49 possible 4 cards boards, which simplifies down to 1 : 7520

40

@NickSteed

I can’t view your link. If this occurs a lot with you, I suggest that you post the Hand Number and we can look it up.

Thanks

41

I calculated it this way:
The probability of the 3 of diamonds being dealt is 1/52. The 4D is 1/51, etc.
(1/52)(1/51)(1/50)(1/49)= 0.000000157 or 6,369,426 to 1