Algorithm

Always interesting.

Thanks for posting!

BTW, if you’re interested, that 20+ streak in a row is no longer.

MTT Lobby - PKO Omaha Fortune - 23,125 + 3,750 + 23,125 chips - NL OmahaHiLo (replaypoker.com)

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Being aware of trending hands at the final table can be rewarding.

Here’s a couple examples:

#1138743734

Two minutes later…

#1138744506

Could we get all the card history for the last year or something then?

It would have been more value for money to put the effort in to making card history public than paying iTech Labs for that certificate which everyone loves to scrutinize.

Making your card history public sends a far stronger message and conveys confidence and transparency. :person_shrugging:

Hi @Tycheck,

We don’t have this feature available, although you can view your most recent 200 hands in your account: https://www.replaypoker.com/hands

Viewing individual Hand ID numbers is available for all players, and anyone can use the search bar on top of the site to view any Hand ID number. We are considering a hand history database in the future, but as we are a recreational free chip poker site, this has not been built yet.

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As far as I can tell the earliest instance of this feature being promised was March 2014. Well since 2014 the future has long since come and gone. I expect we’ll be waiting another decade then?

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Et bien vous devriez changer d’accréditation. Sa fait un moment que je joue …
Vous même pouvez constater que les cartes distribuées sont tous sauf équitablement distribué. Cela fait presque 5 jours que je n’arrive pas à jouer sans perdre . Je fais les tests dans tous les sens. Jamais que depuis le début je perd tellement.
Bref ceci dit : Je termine mes restes de jetons j’ai arrêté mon abonnement prémium.
Je pense sincèrement ne plus jouer sur votre site. A bon entendeur.
Merci de m’avoir fait le plaisir de me rendre compte que le vrais poker se joue sur une vraie table.
Il y a énormément moins de gens qui blinde lourd avant même d’avoir vue les premières cartes.
Et grâce à ces joueur j’arrive à métriser mes émotions, et à appréhender le comportement de certains.
J’avais besoin de m’exprimer, vous me donnez l’occasion de le faire sur le forum.
Yvan d’Alsace FRANCE
Translate:
Well you should change your accreditation. I’ve been playing for a while…
You may even see that the cards dealt are all but fairly distributed. It’s been almost 5 days that I haven’t been able to play without losing. I do the tests in all directions. Never since the beginning have I lost so much.
Anyway, that said: I’m finishing my leftover tokens and stopped my premium subscription.
I honestly don’t think I’ll play on your site anymore. A word to the wise.
Thank you for giving me the pleasure of realizing that real poker is played on a real table.
There are a lot fewer people who have heavy blinds before even seeing the first cards.
And thanks to these players I manage to control my emotions, and to understand the behavior of certain people.
I needed to express myself, you gave me the opportunity to do so on the forum.
Yvan d’Alsace FRANCE

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Hi @Tycheck,

We can’t really promise a feature if we don’t have an estimated date when it will be available for our players. Players send feedback and suggestions everyday, but since we’re a free-to-play site, we’re unable to provide individual updates if and when ideas from players will be implemented.

So sorry if you’ve heard this as a promised feature in the past. If this becomes a concrete site feature, we will make an announcement.

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Alright, well I guess we’ll just have to make do with what tools we have to extract the data ourselves.

I wonder how much data I’ll need to make a good analysis, I have 3250 hands which totals about 14700 cards so far. I think I’ll wait until I get about 100k cards

After gathering 7,778 hands, 35,001 cards this is a snippet of the occurance of cards as a % of grand total. Gradient color coding to show hot/cold cards.

I’ve broken down this data in to various other visuals, formats and categories.

For example this visual represents the occurance of cards (filtered on flop cards only)

And this example being the occurance of card values (filtered on the turn and river), where 7 is the most commonly observed post-flop card and 6 is the least

The plan is to drill further in to this, for example analysing what the distribution of cards are like when there are people all in vs not, run the data against the diehard suite, and compare the occurance of cards when a player has purchases vs doesn’t. And I’m open to any other suggestions and can make the data available to anyone who wants it. Hand ids are attached to every single card extracted to verify that I’m not just making them up.

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Also just to note, this data came only from NL Hold’em tables of various blinds over different time intervals.

I am not a data expert, and I by no means believe or not believe that Replay is rigged in any way, it’s just fascinating to see the data and what happens.

Any patterns or points of interest in the data could purely be down to the samples that were gathered. The more data there is the more those anomalies would be ironed out - working on a small dataset can throw those kinds of things.

Impressive work so far, it will be interesting to see what you find.

Yes, very impressive. I will be interested to see what more data shows. My intuition thinks that as you get more hands data, the distribution of the frequency of the occurrence (that was a mouthfull :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:) for each card will even out.

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(The crypto aspect can be as simple as noticing you would’ve won the hands every time you held an 8.

Just an 8 and either an 882 flop comes or some miracle way you win on the river.)

On a tough decisive hand with time dwindling, I realized I had a high percentage win potential with just a 6 in my hand. Keeping track of the little things, kept in the back of one’s mind can be just enough to make the winning call.

Hand #1164930968

today i have lost every single hand played for whatever reason every pair gets beat flushes if lucky get beat for example 3 7d I have flop isJd 2d 5s 5 players one bets ante all call 8 h on the turn all check then Ad on river player to my right bets half stackso I went all in he calls I lose out to 8d 3d Then we have J6h not one heart hit the table and unbelievable 3 players at the end never had a heart
Then we have J8s 1 spade laid on turn Then we have J4d and once again not a single 1 hit the table my favourite though is I am dealt AA c/h the betting begins 6 out of 9 players 2 to my right 3 to my immediate left the flop 9/6/J all U crazy betting starts and all checking until the guy sat 2 to my right went all in with as it turned out a 3 5 unsuited went all in so I did big f*** mistake turn he hits a 3 then I knew the river he hits a 5 I’m out of and this is the same every time you call that algorithms I call it either I am the unluckiest silly ■■■■ playing or your algorithms are to ■■■■ or replay are fuckling up big time there are more complaints from players now than there ever was ??? for 6 weeks it has been like this so replay won’t get another cent out of me in subscriptions no more nothing and that’s it ALGORITHMS lol don’t make me laugh here’s another thing why do I always get 2/3 times on trot the same numbered cards different suits? or why do I get 2 cards dealt nearly every single time that would have won the previous hand something is wrong somewhere within the mechanics of this site and quads hitting the table 4 times in one game
ps Paklao not directed at you its what I think

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I don’t agree with your conclusions, but that is one hell of a bad run. I expected you to be exaggerating, but losing your last 95 hands in a row has to be some kind of record. I think you’re justified in thinking something is wrong after that.

“my favourite though is I am dealt AA c/h the betting begins 6 out of 9 players 2 to my right 3 to my immediate left the flop 9/6/J”

Are you saying you had AA and 6 players saw the flop?

This is how one loses 95 hands in a row

I think “algorithm sucks / it’s rigged” discussions should just be banned.

If you think it’s rigged, go play somewhere else. It’s that simple.

Replay isn’t about to change the entire basis of their software, and there have been a zillion posts already about the RNG certification.

Reading anecdotal accounts of rare events is tiresome and unproductive.

There are over 300,000 registered users on Replay. That is basically a guarantee that every single day, at least one person (and probably many more) experiences some uber-rare event.

We could all gather round every day and wait for that 1 person to bemoan the algorithm. Or we could all learn basic statistics and stop whining.

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(So, to answer at least one of your questions," are the patterns obvious and predictable? "

Yes!)

#1167169140

There’s more than meets the eye on this one.

Several factors determined the unfolding of the hand.

The ones that were at the table could probably figure one out.

Situations come up where, “It’s gold Jerry! It’s gold!” moments.

Even though, it may be a difficult path initially.

Again, keeping an eye on what’s trending will determine the best course of action.

100% success rate?

No, but you’ll win your share.

Compare that to the " constant losing discussions " Replay’s prevailing winds.

The movie “Being There” if it was about poker…

Chauncey:
Keeping an eye on what’s trending will determine the best course of action.

President:
The best course of action

Chauncey:
We’ll win our share!

President:
I must say, that’s the most refreshing statement I’ve heard in a very long time!

Clap! Clap! Clap!

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You have no idea what is or is not trending on Replay. What you have is an infinitesimally small sample of the massive, constantly growing dataset that is Replay.

There may well be observable patterns and anomalies within that tiny sample. If there are, it’s possible your own intuitive pattern recognition is keen enough to pick up on them. That said, it’s more likely that you inadvertently apply self-reinforcing heuristics like confirmation bias based on some arbitrary series of events (“I won with a 6 two hands in a row, now I am looking for hands with a 6 that win, hey it happened again, now I think there’s a pattern”).

Most importantly, even if there definitely were observable trends in your recent Replay history, they would have 0 predictive value for the future, unless you could both demonstrate that these trends had some causal source in the software the site uses to generate “random” deals AND KNOW when the game is entering one of these skewed states.