What Are the Chances?

That two players are dealt AA, both go all-in and both lose?

Hand

dont understand what you told sry

It can’t be that unusual. The third player is going to have 15-20% equity always, so the odds are only 5-6 times greater than two players both getting dealt aces in the first place. That happens often enough that you’re likely to see this sooner or later.

Yes, I get it. I mean, once it’s dealt the math is the math. But what are the actual chances that this could even be dealt? How many millions of hands does this occur? How many thousands of hands between 2 players getting dealt AA in the same hand, and then on top of that, maybe 1 in 4 or 5 would have a third player calling all-in, and then on top of that, as you say 20% that 3rd player sucks out both AAs, AND on top of all THAT, doing it through the back back door??

Just sayin’, yes crazy stuff happens all the time at a poker table, but pretty wild to actually have seen that. Might play another 10 years and never see it.

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Oh, I know what you mean. I was initially going to write that of course you wouldn’t expect another player to be in the hand all that often when all 4 aces are accounted for, but then remembered it’s Replay, so it’s probably more unlikely that it didn’t go at least 5 ways to the flop.

That’s the thing to keep in mind though - it’s going to stand out as unusual no matter how many other people called - so you need to accumulate the odds for each similar scenario. ie: the question should usually be - what are the odds of something like this happening, rather than what are the odds of this exact thing happening.

PS: I got kings in against aces once and won - by making a straight flush when they ended up with the nut flush: Hand #1102645714 · Replay Poker
I’ve never bothered to calculate the odds of that, but I doubt I’ll ever see it again.

last night I was dealt 6 3 off in three of my first five hands. it would have won every time (straight, 2pair, straight).