Unbalanced Opponents Are Constantly Telling You What To Do

[Younguru]

This is why I’m so bored of Replay MTTs: most opponents are so unbalanced that generally, their action directly dictates what your action should be.

If they checked twice on 8J7K, you just have to bet. Stop looking at your cards/evaluating blockers; they have told you they hate the board. Bet 1/3-1/2 pot and say thank you. If they continue, they have a straight already or they’re open-ended. Bet 1/4-1/3 pot on any safe river, fold if raised, and otherwise profit.

If someone opened and a tight player snap-jammed for 25bb+, they have JJ+/AQ+. Fold all non-premiums and move on.

There are so many spots like this; between player notes and general field tendencies, I know what I am “supposed” to do in 90% of spots I arrive at. And that gets pretty boring. There’s no creativity anymore, there’s just “this is the optimal input, do the input.”

I don’t actually mean this to be another whiny post, though! My point is the insight that players in Replay MTT fields are just so incredibly unbalanced. You really, really feel the difference after playing a few hundred hands of nosebleed ring.

Basically to win MTTs on this site you just play a reasonably balanced range, hold your finger down on the aggression button, and occasionally take your finger off because someone is fighting back (which means they have it).

Outside of that, in any remotely more nuanced spots, you can just use small bets and your opponent will respond by more or less telling you what they have.

[Excaliburns]

“You are the best and worst of Replay” -KileKing

^ I agree 95%

One of the best reaching 1 billion, close to record time.

One of the worst losing over 290 million, somewhat close to record time.

Guessing 98% of players never even have 290 million in their bank.

Craig Anthony reached 1 billion and he protected it.

He took heat from players who noticed he wasn’t playing as much.

However, I thought his decision was a sound one.

@Craig_Anthony 1,218,723,958

If your nose bleed opponents are constantly telling you what to do, then why have you

lost 290 million +?

The old saying, “Be the best you can be”

applies here, so return to the path that quickly put one billion in your bank.

“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times…”

Charles Dickens was spot on!

This opening captures the contradictions and extremes of the era Dickens was describing.

It’s a timeless reminder that life often presents us with both good and bad simultaneously,

and how we navigate those contrasts can define our experiences.

[Younguru]

Haha thanks for chiming in Joe, always love your vivid style of commentary.

I don’t mind that I’ve lost a lot of my bankroll! I mean I’d rather not have lost it, but I was very intentional about taking on more variance and changing my focus. If I wanted to just keep winning 100M a month I very much could I’m having more fun right now taking shots at high-blind ring with some of the best players on the site, and trying to implement some adjustments to my strategy.

But those aren’t the players I am referring to in this post! For instance overall I am still down against DARLINGGIRL despite winning one 100M+ pot with AJ. She is so far from transparent; I rarely feel like I confidently know what she has. Most of the opponents at 250/500k and 500k/1M are like this, at least to me, so far.

So I appreciate the advice, but at least for now, I’m not going to pursue my slow-steady-growth strategy (which also had me playing probably 30 MTTs/week, on average - so a lot more hours than I’m putting in right now).

Maybe see me when I’m back down to 500M and we’ll talk

[Younguru]

The good news is my MTT ROI is still pretty savage, so I’ve been able to jump into the more frequent 2.5M and 5M tourney offerings and recoup some of my Ring losses there. If I hadn’t won Praying Mantis twice this week, I’d be down an additional 50M, and below 700M.

Growth is rarely smooth sailing! I am trying to keep growing

[TheKnutts]

Hey, enjoy playing with you.
Quick run on the math at the yearly hold-em high leaderboard, so you know, lol.
You’re averaging around 60 mtt’s|week just on that leaderboard, lol.
Anyway, have a nice day…

[Younguru]

In keeping with the theme of this thread -

Trapping with Aces… goes wrong?

I think I lost the minimum, anyone disagree?

[Younguru]

@Excaliburns I got a little bit back today <3

As is often the case, talking shop with @lihiue got my mind right

[Younguru]

got heem

Villain had AQ

[Younguru]

@Excaliburns 3 days later back to 900M

[Excaliburns]

Luke,

No matter how you look at it, the lowdown on the trend is still downward versus the higher ups.

Lowdown - the true facts or relevant information about something

Fasten Your Seatbelts... "All About Eve" (1950)

The phrase “Fasten your seatbelts; it’s going to be a bumpy night” is from the classic film All About Eve (1950). It’s spoken by the character Margo Channing, played by Bette Davis. In the scene, Margo says this line during a birthday party she throws for her director and companion, Bill Sampson. She delivers it with a devilish smile, indicating that things are about to get dramatic and tumultuous2.

The line has since become iconic, often used to signal that an event or situation is going to be full of unexpected twists and turns.

[Younguru]

Nah dude I’m up 200M in a few days, I never did that before grinding MTTs.

We’ll see if I can sustain this trajectory. If I do I will be at a new BR peak by this time next week.

[Excaliburns]

@Younguru

Maybe see me when I’m back down to 500M and we’ll talk

Mixed signals, mixed strategies and mixed drinks!

[Younguru]

Here is a trend: a full year of high-volume playing on Replay, and 3 of my biggest pots came in the past 24 hours.

Big losses, bigger wins! Next stop 1.5B baby, holler atcha boi!

[Excaliburns]

All I can say is the big boys are playin’ ya.

One misstep and it’s all over for you.

One misstep for them is absolutely nothing on their scale.

You’re walking “Replay’s Top 10 Tightrope of Death” LoL

[Younguru]

lol no argument here it’s definitely volatile bankroll management
but I’m 6-2 for my last 8 sessions. i think i’m finding my groove against these guys.

last night i sat 30M, ran it up to 100M, ran AK into AA on AKx and went back down to 60M in one hand. stuck around because the game was good and i was feeling myself, got back up to 100M again before cashing out.

pretty confident I can net 20M/day at these stakes consistently. we’ll find out if i’m right or if all this is just flying too close to the sun

[Excaliburns]

@Younguru

it’s definitely volatile bankroll management
but I’m 6-2 for my last 8 sessions.i think i’m finding my groove against these guys.

Anything under 1 billion you’re down trending.

6-2 doesn’t mean a thing.

You’re right about one thing finding your groove… in the wrong direction!

If you somehow surface above 1 billion, take a deep breath of wisdom and reassess.

[Younguru]

It’s not “down trending” if I lose 300M in a week and then post steady wins after that.

When I was playing mostly tournaments and smaller cap ring, it would usually take me a month to win back just 100M.

One brownie point says I’m back over 1B by Friday! I will yield to your experience and promise to take that deep breath when I get there, how about that.

EDIT: @Excaliburns, I have found my guru-ness again. They are done for!

[Younguru]