What you are saying does not make sense. I am saying that those probabilities are the odds that holdem is supposed to have. People are saying there are too many flushes or straights or full houses, and I am saying that is possible for there to be a straight or flush or full house on most boards, which directly addresses the issue being raised by the posters. How is that distracting? There are a lot because there are supposed be a lot by probability.
And to answer your question YES, if I flop 2 pair I know that there is a very high chance that my opponent may improve to a straight or a flush depending on what is on board. Two pair on the flop is usually not very far ahead of any opponents who call a bet, and it will lose frequently depending on the board.
And trips is better, but if you flop trip 7s with K7 in your hand then there are still many hands that could beat you by the river. That is the strategy of poker, and why telling people probabilities is not trivial or obvious.
I know this is just chips (if you donāt buy it) and no real money. And there are players what donāt care about it and pay āall inā with empty hands expecting Flush. This is also ok. But when I see three flushes in half hour I cannot say other then āsomething in program is wrongā.
I donāt know anything about the programming, but the ring games on Replay typically play between 50 and 100 hands per hour (or 25 to 50 hands per half hour). If there is a flush draw on board 37% of the time (which is normal holdāem probability), then in half an hour you would expect to see between 9 and 19 possible flushes in that time. So seeing 3 flushes in a half hour is actually normal holdāem probability (because not all possible flushes will be played to showdown). If you see 20 flushes in 30 minutes, that would be really weird.
I can say thisā¦
I do understand the programming side of thingsā¦ as I have programmed from scratch, a video poker machine as a homework assignmentā¦I also understand data sets and statisticsā¦
Some other post described āsite randomness vs table randomnessā. How a ārandom number generatorā or āRNGā is used, makes a huge difference, even if it is 100% legit.
Lately I have noticed another pattern I am trackingā¦ # of times the person ahead, looses on the river @ showdown. What directly effects this, is ppl going to showdown that have no buisness staying till showdown.
We also have to look @ the fact that : Once ppl start implyān that there are more flushes, more ppl start chasing flushes, and duhhhhhhhh ā¦ everyone starts seen more ppl hit thier flushesā¦ and then its just a vicious circle.
I have played on more than 10 poker sites, I know how bad ppl claimed ( early on ) that Full-Tilt and Pokerstars were riggedā¦ What I can tell you is : From my perspective Replay-Poker is running a legit RNG, but if you get a big enuff data set, there will always be patterns that emerge.
Am I pissād that recently I was busted out of aprox 12-14 MTTs, in a row, on the riverā¦ It makes me go mhmmmm, but then it ākindaā went awayā¦ Sure , even I think there are alot of flushes that hit, and I adjusted my play to accomodate thatā¦
Online poker seeās 3-4x the hands per hour, youāll normally see liveā¦ Even the simple fact that your brain sees so many hands, so close togetherā¦ means it starts seeān patterns normally not seen live.
People play just about any draw to the river. The calls people make just defy all common sense but when enough of them make the calls, the odds of someone hitting on the river goes up proportionately. Heck, in some games you canāt bet someone off an A-high with a 4-flush on the board that they donāt have any of. I mean really? (FYI - yes I was caught bluffing but how the hell do you make that call anyway?)
There is also the phenomenon of āschoolingā, which SPG brought up a few months ago. As donk #1 limps into the hand UTG with crap, he increases the pot odds for each successive donk to also limp in. So, you see flop after flop of 7+ people in the hand, all limped. With that number of people seeing flops, almost every flop, no matter how wet or dry is going to hit someone. Then of course you get the min-bet thing going after the flop and you are basically paying people to stay in the hand with nothing. By the time you get to the river, everyone has been given great odds to call just about anything and take a peek.
So, you want less garbage hands sucking out on you? The first thing you should do is stop limping into pots and pricing the garbage into the hand. Second, donāt price draws to stick in the hand on each successive street. Most people donāt need the right price to call a draw but if you are giving them basically free cards, why shouldnāt they stick around? Play poker, not NL Out-Flop-Em and you might see less suckouts.
Ok, if I good understand here ppl their hands calculate with river. If I have 3d and see two d on board then I can pay, or even more beat while I have 37% chance to get hand. Tnx for info.
I like your point about preflop play. If everybody limps there will be a draw on almost every board.
Postflop play also contributes to the abundance of huge hands by the river. Most people on Replay are too passive, calling with too many hands and chasing too many draws, while at the same time being too aggressive and giving away the strength of their hand when they do have a big hand. I think it defies the conventional player types (mostly loose passive), but it makes these players pretty easy to play against.
In many cases it works to bet huge to make chasers overpay, and I have even seen many high stakes players bet the whole pot as a continuation bet on many boards, but it is a highly exploitable tactic because it makes it very easy to correctly fold marginal hands and continue with extremely strong hands. If you are heads up after raising preflop with AA with no hearts and the board comes 287 with 2 hearts and you bet full pot, I am only going to continue with sets, trips, 87, or a massive draw like 9T of hearts. However, this approach of betting huge works wonders against many players on Replay (which probably why so many high stakes players use it). To play a balanced game, sometimes you have to size bets from half to 3/4 pot and give people a reasonable price to draw with the idea that you can make better decisions than your opponents when draws hit or miss.
I have played on Replay Poker for several years and feel "experienced " enough to make the following observations: If you truly believe that Replayās programs cannot and donāt manipulate and control the games then you are either naĆÆve, a Replay shill, or havenāt played enough to recognize that these controls and manipulations exist.
It is easy to observe that the cards that are folded preflop influence the subsequent flop, turn, and river. How and why this happens is beyond me although it has been programmed that way.
Poker is about āprobabilitiesā and āoddsā. Again if you play a lot on this site, you will recognize that these inescapable truths about poker are violated again and again. Have you noticed the high number of times that ā4 of a kindā comes up. In random poker this happens much less frequently.
This is just one example. You must believe that although Replay says the shuffle and deal is completely random, they have the ability to program the play in any way they wish. And they doā¦
Why do they program these manipulations? Your guess is as good as mine. Perhaps its to make the games more exciting and/or interesting. Perhaps to cause players to ābuyā more chips. Who knows?
I have complained to Replay frequently about these controls and manipulations. I am ignored other than they are now manipulating and controlling my play in a negative way. Why are they doing this? Punishment for complaining, I guess.
Anyway, Iām not a āhaterā as you say. I just like to play a āfairā game of poker.
You are right ballack, it isnāt fair, it is rigged, just to get you, nobody else, just you. So you might as well go play someplace else that is āfairerā, if you can find it.
zmansuncle,
He didnāt say ājust me, nobody elseā.
You could, at a minimum, correctly paraphrase someone with 4 times your experience and 100 times your chips.
The strange patterns we see here are actually a new type of crop circle that the greys of Beta Reticuli are using to communicate with Earthlings. Iāve used some advanced āBible Codeā software to decode the messages in a 5,000 hand sample. Hereās what it said,
āHubba hubba. Hey baby. Here, pull my finger.ā
The message seemed kind of strange to me, so I asked a women who channels a guy that channels a guy that channels aliens to ask them why they would travel 97 light years to get someone to pull their finger. It turns out that they think the āpull my fingerā gag is really really funny, and nobody on their home world will fall for it anymore.
In Omaha hi lo I can almost guarantee if I get A 2 then both those come out on the flop 70% of the time,then 20 % all high cards if not them.Like somebody said before,is it to encourage you to buy chips as in no way it is random.Random is not 20 hands out of 20.If so desperate to get cash then why not a membership fee to get you out of the fix.Iād pay to see real random cards rather than this obvious not random flops.
I just got screwed again, jacks aND OUEENS ON THJE BOARD, I HAVE A OUEEN IN HOLE CARDS OTHER HAND HAS JACK,HE GOT THGE POT,NOT THE FRIST TIME THIS HAS HAPPENED.
@longshotRon
If this is the hand you mean Hand #315100049 Ā· Replay Poker jclark10 did win it.
In Omaha you must use exactly 2 hole cards and 3 community cards to make your hand.
Your best hand therefore was Q9 from the hole and QQJ from the board to form a hand QQQJ9 (3Queens)
jclarks best hand was using J5 from the hole combined with JJ5 from the board giving him JJJ55 (full house)
Just a little tipā¦ watch the chat window after a hand like this. It posts the cards shown at showdown and identifies the winning hand. This is what was posted after that hand
Dealer: longshotRon shows [ Qd 2c 8c 9h ] Hi: Three of a Kind, Queens; Lo: -
Dealer: jclark10 shows [ Kd Jc 5c 2h ] Hi: Full House, Jacks full of Fives; Lo: -
Dealer: jclark10 wins 4,400 chips with Hi: Full House, Jacks full of Fives.
Helloā¦ Iāve played on this site for a number of years and have enjoyed playing here. I quit for a little while and just recently started playing again and bought a few chips to get started. Since starting with this new name, I have faced an obvious disadvantage in game play. I can go for hours without a winning hand. I cannot win showdowns as I have the losing hand 99% of the time. Even in ring tables with 3 other players I have gone hours without a winning hand.
That completely defies probability.
Its just simply impossible I can have this bad of luck. Its completely ruined my gameplay.
I enjoy playing here so Iām writing as to why this is happening. I suspect replay manipulates the play, but I know thatās a serious charge. It may be Iām just very unlucky, but my level of luck is so bad its unnatural and makes me suspicious especially after so long.
Iām not going to play here or buy anymore chips if this continuesā¦ why should I?
