Why did you limp-call KTs?
Why did you limp ANYTHING UtG this deep?
Yes, he is a newbie fish so he’s not ranging you, but good players will pillage you for limp-calling pre. KTo UtG early rounds deep at a 9-seat table can fold. At 6-max and you are comfortable playing looser you can open that but you have to open large or you’ll get called by crap and then unless you flop KKx you probably check-fold.
Why did you bet pot on that turn? That’s ridickaliss. With trips Ks and he checks to you, only the dumbest call station will call (and we WANT calls) – or on the other hand, AK slow play will check-raise you. In this case something like AK or KQ doesn’t even have to raise. You just did it for him. He 2xd pre so it shouldn’t be AK. You want K5 etc to call. You want low pocket pair to call. In the bulk of his range this is what’s hitting. This is your value. You;re throwing it all away with a bet like that. Size down, 20%-30% of pot.
Ok, you actually got a dumb call stn to call, but if you thought he was calling anything, he had so little left behind why didn’t you shove him? Are you watching the stacks?
Let me guess, you were terrified of getting sucked out by something like a flush. But the flush was already in!! The flush isn’t folding. Neither is KJ, KQ, AK for that matter.
Yes, he sucked you out, hard, but if you keep playing this guy and he keeps playing like that he will pay your freaking mortgage. 9 times out of 10, he never completes his boat. Go play him another 9 times. I get it, it’s a tournament. You’re out. But you’ll get him next time. I get felted by junk bs all the time, but then I also hit. I won a 6-seat SnG this morning, took out 4 of the 5 Villains. 3 times all-in pre and hit a DRAW to win the pot each time. One of them I have A4, he calls with A3. He flops a 3. Run out is 567. I win. What are the chances? It always evens out.
first of all. that was the very 1st hand of the tournament. 2nd of all it doesn’t matter what I do, he’s calling ok. 3rd I thought you was done with me?
I wasn’t terrified getting sucked out on hence why I played hand I did. of course I did anyway.
I can’t win with you people. if I make small bets then you’ll say, should’ve been more aggressive.
to be honest, its hard to put anyone on a particular hand. I don’t know what I would’ve put him on. especially with his minimum raise. I just know my intention was to see a flop if I hit bet like one should. if I didn’t hit then its easy fold. he checked the turn which to me meant he didn’t have a King. he didn’t have a flush . I bet pot to represent a flush. better question is, what did he put me on? surely not betting like I did with anything less than a 3 of a kind or flush. if I was him, I would’ve folded after the re raise I did. of course he gets bailed out on river.
flip the two hands around, I wouldn’t hit river like he did. this is my whole point. I’ve tried and tried play dumb, but do I ever get rewarded? no
In this case it shouldn’t have been difficult. There was a low probability as you said, based on his betting that he had a set as you did which would’ve given him a boat on the flop. And as I previously wrote neither a flush at the Turn. I had him on at least a small pair which he in fact did. If he paired on the board, meant holding two pair at the Turn. I can see his all-in. If he had thought, you had paired the 5 he would’ve still had the top two pair.
So, why keep beating yourself up over the River, you made the correct call?
That’s my point, you played it correctly. If you would’ve gone all-in after the flop, he probably would’ve folded like the other two did when you raised 600. The River normally shouldn’t occur but it sure seems like it does on here.
and that’s my point. it happens way to much on here. yet I can’t seem to hit river when I need too. yes I’ve hit the river, but its very very very very rare
The way we perceive bad luck is just very different to how things actually happen - you can’t judge any of this stuff by how it seems, you have to actually look at the data.
this make no sense at all. so I had bad luck when he hit the 7, but actually the 7 didn’t hit the river. so I just imagine all this bad luck huh?
I don’t except to win every hand. yes bad beats suck outs happen. they just happen way to often. I don’t except hit river every time. you just found 1 hand that I actually did and I had way more than 2 outs.
this stuff happens over and over and over. I’ve studied my hands a long time. I know what happens. that’s my data. do you play my hands? no. so you have no idea what so ever what happens with my hands. like I said, I rarely hit river when I need too. that hand just so happened I did.
I am gun shy a lot because what happens to me over and over.
The point is that it’s quite unlikely that your perception is correct, and much more likely that you’re experiencing some kind of cognitive dissonance, leading to biased self-assessment of your results.
In short, yes, you probably imagine all this bad luck. Or at least, you incorrectly assess that what you perceive as “all this bad luck” is a special case and not just an instantiation of what any poker player should expect to see in the long run.
I obviously mean in aggregate and on reflection. ie We remember all the bad stuff that happens to us, but forget about the good, or sometime aren’t even aware of it. How often do you think people have folded draws that would have hit? Can’t be non-zero right? You also usually only get to see the draws people hit, not the ones they chased and folded when they missed.
I get that. I’m there every time I have a bad run of variance too. It does just make things worse though. You end up folding a lot of draws that you are getting the odds to chase, assuming that everyone hits and folding to bluffs, etc. It is a self fulfilling prophecy to some extent.
On THIS hand true, he’s not folding anything and he’s buttlucking you, but 9 times out of 10 he won’t hit boat and you take him to the cleaners with his irresponsible calling. First hand of tourney is irrelevant. It doesn’t change the odds or math of anything. In fact, first hand of tourney MIGHT cause us to tighten up and play less until we see some action and get some reads on the Villains around us (strictly a matter of preference). The more important issue here is how you are playing. If that is how you play all of your hands, THAT is where you’re losing most of your money. If you use proper bet sizing you will still make plenty of profit even after suckouts and bad beats. I’m not trying to be rude but your bet sizing is whacked! Too small when it should be bigger and waay too big when it should be smaller.
Then what were you trying to accomplish with that limp-call 2x pre?
More importantly, what were you trying to accomplish with that pot bet on turn?
That’s not true. If you honestly want to solve this then answer the two questions that I just asked about pre and turn and I will help you, or better yet someone like guru or lihiue or astro or rain will help you better than I.
But if all you want is to hear someone say, “aww, you’re right, you play so well and replay is rigged against you, you poor baby,” it’s not going to happen. Especially when you did not play that hand well at all.
If you honestly believe that the game is rigged against you, why why WHY on earth do you keep playing it?? If you burn your hand on a hot skillet on the stove, do you keep grabbing it over and over and over?
I feel your pain. Yes the ai dealer can pull any card available from its deck at any time. No poker dealer I know can do that. Online poker is what it is. There is no point in arguing. You know it is not secure. It never will be. Play accordingly. I’m pretty sure this is why most people don’t take this too seriously. That’s why most play like it is not real. It isn’t. The self invested and addicts will defend it to the end. So what? We dont have to prove a dang thing. We can believe our eyes.
Frankly it’s the opposite: there’s a staunch pool of “online is rigged” deniers who insist that the deals are different from brick-and-mortar poker, despite overwhelming statistical evidence to the contrary.
